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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The week in brief
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2021

June PMI – both overall and the output subindex -- rose to over 50 in June. As we wrote last week for confidence indicators, we think this is primarily a temporary, post-lockdown rebound, and we should see a visible slowdown in economic activity during the second half. Trade data for May and J...

Belarus shuts border with Ukraine but encourages illegal immigration into Lithuania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2021

On July 2 Lukashenka announced that the border with Ukraine is being shut with immediate effect. He claimed that terrorists are infiltrating into his country from Ukraine and it is all a Western sponsored coup plot. He tried a similar trick in 2020 saying that Russian mercenaries who he had arres...

Reality bites
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new MTFF, inconsistent with keeping investment grade in place, is proposing a drastic increase in fiscal space for the next decade. The central government deficit should fall from 8.6% of GDP in 2021 to 7% in 2022, and then converge, by 2027, to deficits of 2.5%-2.7%. But we show that the “b...

Taliban menace Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2021

On July 2 the US Secretary of State met the Tajik and Uzbek foreign ministers. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan border Afghanistan. They discussed their security.The Turkmen foreign minister was conspicuous by his absence. Turkmenistan borders Afghanistan. Why was the Turkmen foreign minister not invite...

The opposition submitted a criminal report on President Bolsonaro to the STF, as well as another impeachment request, the Tax Passport is no longer on the Senate agenda and the House is optimistic about its agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2021

Minister Rosa Weber rejected the PGR’s request to wait until after the conclusion of the COVID CPI before making a decision on the criminal report. The PGR will likely request more time to review the case. The House hopes to vote on Tax Reform before the parliamentary recess that should take plac...

Cautiously climbing the ladder, watching out for snakes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jul 2021

The Philippines appears to be on the mend. Yesterday, the Department of Health said the country can now be considered “low-risk” following decreases in active covid19 cases and hospital occupancy at the national level. (Chart 1) Vaccines have also begun to arrive in bulk and inoculation significa...

​GULF WEEKLY: UAE delays OPEC+ talks, Kuwait’s foreign assets surge, Bahrain’s Q1 GDP recovery is weak
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ talks dragged into today as the UAE argues it should be able to produce more. * US-Iran talks paused for a week as pressure builds due to non-cooperation with IAEA monitoring. * Covid continued to surge in Oman but ...

Russia sending 600 more military instructors to the Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2021

On July 2 Moscow confirmed the move. This takes the total number of military instructors in the Central African Republic (CAR) to over 1,100. Some sources say that the real figure is over 2,000. The United Nations alleged that the CAR Army and its Russian confederates have committed many human ri...

​QATAR: QP issues record bond to finance LNG expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jul 2021

In its first USD issuance since 2006, QP raised $12.5bn, enough to cover about 62% of its expected share of the North Field East LNG expansion. The issuance and the 2020 accounts revealed useful information about QP’s reserves, production, strategic vision and its role in financing the government...

Davati Medical Supply rep testifies in the COVID CPI today about his accusations, representatives of various parties submitted a “super impeachment request” against President Bolsonaro, and the Senate may vote on the Tax Passport bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2021

Luiz Paulo Dominguetti Pereira, representative of the Davati Medical Supply company, should discuss being charged a fee by the Director of Logistics of the Ministry of Health in order to sign a contract with the Ministry. Next week, Deputy Luiz Miranda will participate in a closed meeting of the ...

Economic performance continued to improve in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2021

In the aftermath of the previous statistical release that confirmed that the Russian industrial growth was gathering pace in May, Rosstat reported that the rest of the monthly indicators also didn’t look bad last month. Retail sales were up y-o-y by 27.0% and 10% in May and 5M21. The non-food seg...

Ukraine approves reform sought by IMF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2021

Parliament voted for several bills to reform the judicial system and stop corruption. The IMF has a USD 5 billion program for Ukraine but the loans are contingent on reform. Ukraine has only received USD 2.1 billion thus far.The draft law has reanimated the High Judicial Council (VRP), which is a...

Government bond issuance reduced in July
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jul 2021

MoF will reduce bond issuance in July. In July, government bond issuance will decline to 7.0bn ILS down from 9.0bn last month. We note that the weekly bond issuance remains fairly unchanged at around 1.7-1.8bn, similar to June (which had five weeks of issuance). Nevertheless, we have seen a gradu...

A vaccine seller's rep reports being charged a bribe in order to sign a contract with the Ministry of Health, and Dep. Luiz Miranda reports being offered a million dollar bribe not to interfere in the purchase of the Covaxin vaccines
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2021 · 1 response

Luiz Paulo Dominguetti Pereira, representative of the Davati Medical Supply company, should testify in the COVID CPI on Friday. Deputy Ricardo Barros will likely be replaced as government leader in the House. Businessman Carlos Wizard tesitfies in the COVID CPI today.

Russian food tech startup raises USD 46 million for a US launch
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2021

Russian entrepreneurs have raised the money to start their food delivery service in the United States. The Buyk service will be a US edition of Samokat. Samokat was started in St Petersburg in 2020. Samokat was then bought by Mail.Ru and Sber. Russia does not have a reputation for being the most ...

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