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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%
PERU · Report · 18 Oct 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue t...

Saudi Arabia: Bond issuance and buyback
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today the Kingdom announced plans to issue a 6-year sukuk and a 10-year bond, its first dollar issuances in nearly a year, targeting about $3.5-4bn, as well as buying back bonds that mature over the next four years. The buyback tender was announced for the four Eurobonds that mature in 2023-6, wh...

Economics: Mexico benefitting from nearshoring trend but must take action to sustain FDI inflows long term
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2022

Federal officials have been boasting of the very high Foreign Direct Investment results for the first half of 2022. In contrast to gross fixed capital formation, which as of July was running 10% below 2018 levels, through the first half of 2022 FDI inflows were there highest since 2013. While ...

Standard & Poor's issues positive annual Jamaica report as Bank of Jamaica continues to tighten local monetary policy
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

On October 5, rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) issued its annual report on the Jamaican economy. In summary, the agency expects the country's economic recovery to continue, supported particularly by tourism. It expects Jamaica to continue to run a small fiscal surplus in the current fiscal y...

Declining World Growth and The Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

More important than the magnitude of the decline in the IMF’s new projections for global growth in 2023 is the warning, loud and clear, that “although many countries may not be in a recession, they will feel as if they were in recession”. Not since the crisis of 2008 has there been such generaliz...

Politics: Revelations by hackers and a new book provide a thorough look at organized crime and alleged government corruption
MEXICO · Report · 17 Oct 2022

In the past two weeks, President López Obrador’s critics were handed two unforeseen sources of information with which to bolster their case against the current administration. The first consists of many thousands of documents and emails from and regarding the Armed Forces made public by hackers w...

Evaluation of the first debate of the runoff round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

This is the penultimate week of the electoral campaign before the runoff round, on October 30. Candidates for president and governor are intensifying their campaigns. Several presidential and state polls have been scheduled. This week’s Talking Points: * Party movements. * The ...

Abel Martínez won the PLD consultation to elect his pre-presidential candidate for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Oct 2022

Abel Martinez won comfortably with 60.9% of the votes, followed by Francisco Dominguez Brito with 20.8% and Margarita Cedeño with 16.2%. Martinez is the current mayor of Santiago, the second largest city in the country. He was elected for the first time for the 2016-2020 period and re-elected for...

September’s CPI comes in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Oct 2022

1. Despite the upward inflation surprise in September, core inflation remained stable at 4.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to accelerate y/y in Q422, in part due to the cancellation of the excise tax reduction on petrol. 3. We expect a rate hike of 0.5% on November 21, and further tightening to ...

The first presidential debate of the runoff round was held yesterday, the Special Committee of the STF on the ICMS on fuels will meet on Wednesday, and the STF will resume judgment of ADO No. 59
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

During the debate, it was very clear that the pandemic is an uncomfortable topic for Jair Bolsonaro, just as corruption is for former President Lula. Lula did well in the first block. In the other two, Bolsonaro did better. On Wednesday, October 19, the Special Committee that debates the collecti...

Russia has lost 90,000 soldiers - reports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 12 a Russian independent media project called iStories reported that 90,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, captured or gone missing in Ukraine in 2022. iStories said that Kremlin sources provided this information. In some cases wounds will be slight, and soldiers are compl...

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2022

The AKP-MHP controlled Grand Assembly kicked off the winter session with a comprehensive media censorship bill, which aims to intimidate opposition voters and get rid of all content unpleasant for the regime. While we strongly protest the law and agree with the consensus that it may hurt the oppo...

Difficult CIS summit for Russia, CSTO role examined
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 14, the CIS leaders’ summit started in Kazakhstan. It proved to be a testing summit for Russia, mainly on account of regional questions around security and hierarchies. Also within the CIS are the six nations that make up the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The CSTO alliance i...

First Russian draftees killed in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2022

On October 14 it was reported that some of those conscripted in September 2022 were killed 10 days after mobilization. Some of those drafted have been lawyers which is unusual. Those drafted are usually working class. Very few Muscovites have been drafted. Draftees are often from impoverished reg...

September’s CPI comes in above expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

September’s CPI comes in above expectations Inflation in September increased by 0.2% m/m (expectations were for 0.1% while some local forecasters were expecting zero) and 4.6% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation increased by 4.7% y/y in the past three months. Housing rental prices (OER) i...

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