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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth may be slower
CHINA · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The Chinese economy has been stably rising in Q2. GDP was up 7.9% y/y, and up 11.4% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.5%, up 0.5 pps from Q1. Industrial output was up 8.9% y/y, and up 13.7% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6% y/y, slightly lower than in Q1 but hig...

MNB raised the base rate and both sides of the interest rate corridor by 30 bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

The base rate thus went to 1.2%, and the corridor remains +/- 95 bps around this level. This is a bit more than expected (15-30 bps) by the market, and it is in conformity with the MNB's three-month old commitment to a distinct tightening trend and to a front-loaded approach. The key point must b...

What to expect from the last year of Duterte’s presidency
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

Towards the end of his rambling, close to three-hour State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday, President Rodrigo Duterte listed several priority bills that he wanted congress to pass in the final year of his presidency. The proposals were unsurprising and included the three bills to open the ...

2021–2022 Forecast: Slow Recovery
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2021

With only five percent of Venezuelans fully vaccinated, the country has seen no relief from its rapid daily rate of new Covid-19 cases since the end of March. Non-adherence and lax enforcement of quarantines are allowing retail trade and manufacturing to begin to open up. Groundwork is being laid...

Politics: Pegasus scandal reveals massive espionage in Mexico with no legislative control
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Worldwide, Mexico is the country with the highest level of espionage with Pegasus spyware. The international scandal that broke this past week therefore has had major repercussions in the country since a whopping 30% of all the intercepted communications worldwide -15,000 telephones- correspond t...

Strike at oil transport company in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

On July 18 a strike started in Zhanozen, Kazakhstan. The company that strikers work for is Kazpromtekh. The company provides transport to a small oil company called Ozenmunaigaz. The strike involves street cleaners, driver and loaders.One small company in Zhanozen gave in to the strikers. This is...

Minister of economy designates the course: fiscal and monetary expansion are defined as priority as well as protectionist measures
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

There is one thing I can hardly pass by. Yesterday Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of economy Oleksiy Lyubchenko published a series of articles (in different media, see the links https://cutt.ly/RQtKuzc, https://cutt.ly/mQtNYrt) describing his economic views and also outlining the course for Ukr...

Two Warning Signs Last Week: Inflation and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

Last week, the IPCA-15 data for July and the volatility of the Real emitted two clear warning signs. The increase of 0.72% of the IPCA-15, higher than the consensus projection of 0.65%, was the first alert. Although the diffusion index dipped below its annualized quarterly rate, it was 70%, with ...

New reforms in the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

President Jair Bolsonaro will swear in new ministers: Sen. Ciro Nogueira is the new Chief of Staff; Luiz Eduardo Ramos will go to the General Secretariat; and Onyx Lorenzoni will head the new Ministry of Employment and Social Security. Bolsonaro promises to present evidence of electoral fraud in ...

Turkey Covid Watch - July 26, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Average daily cases almost doubled in a week, from 7.7K to 14.2K for the week ending Sunday (Graph 1). Testing did not keep pace, and in fact declined for the week, resulting in an increase in the positivity rate to 6.4% (Graph 2). The rise in cases is not surprising, given that Turkey is a touri...

Beijing is worried about debt, but more worried about slowing growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

• GDP growth in the second quarter continues to slow, but not by as much as many analysts seemed to think. • While I continue to expect China’s reported GDP growth for the year to be between 6 percent and 8 percent, I am starting to believe that it will be much closer to 8 percent than to 6 pe...

Bolsonaro announced changes to his ministerial team, he has promised to present evidence of electoral fraud in the 2014 presidential election and he has 15 days to sanction the LDO once he receives it
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

Sen. Ciro Nogueira will replace General Luiz Eduardo Ramos as Chief of Staff, General Ramos will replace Onyx Lorenzoni in the General Secretariat of the Presidency, and Lorenzoni will become the Minster of Employment and Social Security. Bolsonaro supports the paper ballot PEC. A few truckers’ o...

Signs of some growth moderation in recent months
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jul 2021

1. Recent indicators point to some “normal” deceleration as growth returns to a more sustainable pace. 2. Nevertheless, hi-tech service exports continue to surge, supportive of a strong CA surplus and shekel appreciation. 3. The second half of June witnessed strong employment growth i...

​Essential CIS Politics: July 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

*The summit between Putin and Biden went well, which pleased the stock market. *Coronavirus is rising in Russia, necessitating restrictions in Moscow and some other regions. *Tajikistan is worried as the Taliban are moving up to their border. *Russia claimed to have fired warning shots a...

We expect the MNB to tighten further tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Last week, we said in our quarterly forecast that we expect the MNB to tighten further at their July 27 rate-setting meeting, either by raising the base rate by another 15 bps to 1.05% or by announcing some material specifics on cutting back QE policies, or maybe both at the same time. Now that t...

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