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Russia nationalizes Renault factory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

On May 16 the Mayor of Moscow said the French car factory had been nationalized, and the Soviet-era car the Moskvitch will be brought back. This is the first significant transfer of a private asset to the state since the Ukraine War began.Most of the 45,000 Renault factory workers and subcontract...

​Inflation remains rampant
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 May 2022

Although April National CPI inflation of 6.0%m/m showed a mild decline compared to the surprising 6.7%m/m of Match. This moderate deceleration is to a large extent explained by seasonal factors. Annual inflation remains in an upward trend, closing in April at 58%y/y, compared to 55.1%y/y the mont...

Inflation seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

After some delay caused by limited number of working days in early May (due to national holidays) Rosstat reported that inflation in April reached 1.56% m-o-m and 11.67% YTD. Inflation y-o-y hit 17.83%. These figures were generally expected as consumer demand has likely started to shrink, especia...

Ukraine wins Eurovision and stalls Russia in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest. It is suspected that other countries voted for Ukraine more out of political solidarity than for musical merit. The singer said from the stage, ''Please help Ukraine and help Mariupol!'' He was referring to the Ukrainian city where hundreds of Uk...

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

April’s CPI increased by 0.8% m/m (4.0% y/y), in line with expectations Core inflation increased by 3.4% y/y from 3% last month, is more broad- based. Accelerating inflation will support a 0.4% rate hike on May 23rd. Our current inflation forecast stands at 3% NTM.The fiscal posture continues to ...

Inflation accelerates in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

Inflation accelerates in April Inflation accelerated to 4.0% y/y in April, up from 3.5% last month. The monthly CPI increased by 0.8%, in line with consensus but below our forecast of 0.9%. Core inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%. Several months ago, the BoI began to calculate “core infl...

Seething politics, shaky currency
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2022 · 1 response

The Erdogan administration promised fairly large fiscal stimulus by July in the form of raising civil service pay and pensions. These may be signals for surprise elections in autumn, though the politics author is not yet willing to subscribe to the scenario. At the end, the fate of the shaky curr...

Breakaway region of Georgia may unite with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 the President of South Ossetia said a referendum on seeking accession to the Russian Federation shall be held. The referendum will be on July 17 2022. It is almost certain that the result will be Yes to joining Russia.In 2008 Russia fought Georgia over the region. Russian troops in Sout...

Rallying, with inflation and police violence the main issues
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 May 2022

Given the atmosphere of global uncertainty, everything would seem to indicate that the Dominican economy is managing to overcome the situation well, and without great difficulties, except for the problem of inflation. GDP grew 6.1% in Q1 2022, compared to the same period in 2021; exports of to...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 May 2022

May 4 National bank: Current account surplus reached $2.2 bln in 1Q22, according to preliminary estimates Bureau of National Statistics: CPI in April was 2% y-o-y and 7.3% in 4M22 Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (local railways): Transportation for export via railroad grew in 1Q22 by 6% y-o-y May 5 Parlia...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE president dies, Dubai tourists exceed 2019 levels, Qatar’s emir visits Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 May 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU and Qatar attempted to restart Iran nuclear negotiations with visits to Tehran. * PMIs fell in April in Saudi, Dubai and UAE but rose to a new record in Qatar. * Aramco surpassed Apple as the world’s most valuable c...

President Bolsonaro conflicts with the TSE and with Petrobras, the new Minister of Mines and Energy submitted a request for studies on the privatization of Petrobras, and the third-way alliance may select its presidential candidate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2022

After the president of the TSE, Minister Edson Fachin, stated that “...nothing and no one will interfere in the Electoral Court," President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) declared, “The Armed Forces are not meddling in the elections.” Bolsonaro also said he will go to court to try to force Petrobras to redu...

Ukrainian gas transit to Europe fell by one-third, Hungary is indirectly affected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2022

The operator of Ukrainian gas pipelines stopped transiting Russian natural gas through a particular branch of its network on May 11, claiming the occurrence of a force majeure that made it impossible to continue its service. Gas TSO of Ukraine, the operator, said that it had lost control of its f...

Russia says EU membership for Ukraine is unacceptable
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2022

On May 12 Moscow upped its rhetoric on the EU. Russia had previously said it could live with Ukraine joining the European Union so long as Ukraine vowed never to seek NATO membership. However, a Russian diplomat at the United Nations said that had changed. He said that the EU and NATO were almost...

GDP grew 8.3% in Q1 2022
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2022

Despite the Omicron-driven surge in covid-19 cases at the start of the year, economic growth in Q1 was stronger than the median analyst forecast of 6.7%.The 8.3% yoy headline number reflects some base effects, but economic growth on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis was at a robust 1.9% clip...