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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Failed attempt to murder Ciro Gómez Leyva, one of the most influential journalists, aggravates the conflict between AMLO and critical media
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2022

The rising toll of journalists killed over the course of the past year has landed Mexico atop the "Reporters without Borders" annual list of the deadliest country for reporters, with three more such slayings this year than in war-torn Ukraine. And while 11 journalists were killed here in 2022 and...

The Economy in Pictures, in 2022
TURKEY · Report · 23 Dec 2022

After a relatively strong first half, growth stalled in Q3, q/q, driven by weakness in net exports, but consumption remained strong. Further weakness is likely in Q4, but GDP might have nevertheless expanded by some 5% in the year. Inflation was the main casualty of 2022, which should end the ...

Economics: Economy starts to lose steam on some fronts as we gear up for a challenging 2023
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2022

In this, our final issue of 2022, we provide an overview of the main economic data published in December. The headline number were the strong GDP results for the third quarter on the strength of a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of th...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Dec 2022

Dec 9 Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Kazakhstan banks have received permission from OFAC to operate with Russian Mir cards Dec 12 President: Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 2.7% in Jan-Nov Prime-Minister: Kazakhstan wants to attract up to KZT 3.8 trln ($8 bln) of investme...

Congress approved the Federal Budget for 2023 and recessed until February, Lula announced 16 more members of his ministerial team, and VP Geraldo Alckmin was appointed to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Dec 2022

The final text is being consolidated and will be sent for approval. It may only be sanctioned in January by President Lula. since the new government is changing the Ministries Esplanade with the creation of new ministries, the allocation of resources will have to be adjusted. Yesterday Lula annou...

Kazakhstan to send oil to Germany
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2022

On December 22 it was reported that KazMunaiGaz will sell oil to Germany and it will be transported via the Druzhba Pipeline that goes through Russia. Russia will earn transit fees. The project shall commence in January 2023. The EU has banned most Russian oil imports. Germany was very dependent ...

Bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2022

Costa Rica’s economic performance has been affected by negative external conditions, but results in some areas looking better than expected. Short-term economic activity indicators suggest that real growth this year could be around 4% y/y, vs. the low 3.3% of our July revised forecast. The nature...

No change on the MPC front
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee met today, and as expected, it kept the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 9%. There was no material change in the economics of the text that is worth reporting here.

Congress enacted the constitutional amendment that removes the Bolsa Família program from the Spending Ceiling, Lula should announce more members of his ministerial team, and today is the final day of legislative activity for the year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Dec 2022

The National Congress enacted the constitutional amendment that allows the payment of the Bolsa Família outside the ceiling next year. It has already been published in today's Official Gazette. The text helps Lira and Pacheco's re-election campaigns in that it resolved the rapporteur amendments i...

Under the Christmas tree: EU Commission approved Hungary's plan to use 2021-2027 cohesion policy funds
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Dec 2022

In a major forint-positive step, the EU commission approved the Partnership Agreement with Hungary, that is essentially the country's plan to utilise its €22bn cohesion policy grant quota set for the 2021-2027 medium-term budget period. This followed the signing of Hungary's plan for the utilisat...

Zelensky in the US hears Ukraine will receive Patriot air defense
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2022

On December 21 the Ukrainian President arrived in Washington on his first trip abroad since the war began. The US announced a USD 1.85 billion aid package including air defense missiles. Zelensky is due to address the US Congress. He has met with Biden. The Patriot announcement had been leaked. T...

Russian macro: another year of shocks and uncertainty ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 21 Dec 2022

This year has been uneasy for the Russian economy, just like many other years in the past decade. The forthcoming years will be even more challenging as politics continue to dominate the economy – both in Russia and worldwide. The Russian economy will continue to undergo dramatic changes across t...

Three-cushion billiards
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2022

The battle between the Executive and the Legislature continues, and we foresee no improvement in the coming months. UNES and the rebels from Pachakutik have not and will not cease in their efforts to get rid of President Lasso — or at least make his life difficult. Social Christians accompany the...

Recent economic indicators are mixed; tightening still expected to continue
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Dec 2022

Hi-tech exports slow Hi-tech service exports declined in October by 3.5% compared to the level in Q3 (following growth of 3.6% q/q), and are down 2.4% y/y. Hi-tech services have been a major economic growth driver in 2020-2021 and appear to be decelerating as global hi-tech investments slow as we...

The House approved the basic text of the Transition PEC, the edits to the PEC will now be analyzed, and Lula is expected to announce more members of his ministerial team
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2022

Yesterday, the House approved the basic text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The voting continues today with the analysis of the edits. The term of the PEC was reduced from two years to one. Today, the Novo party's edit will be analyzed. This edit intends to remove the ...

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