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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Transparency in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jun 2021

The arrest and charges against senior executives at Hong Kong’s remaining independent newspaper, Apple Daily, and the freezing of US$2.3 million in corporate accounts, has sent a chill throughout Hong Kong. The move against Apple Daily signals a heightened attack against the free press in Hong Ko...

The passing of Benigno Aquino III
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jun 2021

Manila woke up today to news of the death of former President Benigno Aquino III who served from 2010 to 2016. An accidental chief executive, he owed his election to his mother, democracy icon Corazon Aquino, who died in August 2009 just as the country was gearing up for election season. For six ...

Inflation decelerates w-o-w, albeit slowly, implying an acceleration y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that consumer prices increased by 0.12% in the seven days ending on June 21. Therefore, inflation reached 0.40% in the three weeks of June and 3.89% YTD (2.63% YTD over the same period in 2020). Inflation is likely to be slightly above 0.5% in June implying an acceleration in y-o...

Industrial output growth gathers pace in May and 5M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output was up by 11.8% and 3.2% y-o-y in May and 4M21. Even though, according to the tradition, Rosstat revised up previously reported data for April seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output grew by 1.1% m-o-m in May. Mining was still down in 5M...

Stronger yuan against a weak dollar
CHINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

Growth was stable in May. Industrial output rose 8.8% y/y, and increased 13.6% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6%. Investment rose 15.4% y/y, and increased 8.5% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.2% y/y -- still in a low growth zone. Consumption has recovered...

Monetary policy's Groundhog Day
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

According to some media reports (e.g., link here and here), the CBRT Governor Sahap Kavcioglu held a meeting at the Banks’ Association with the CEOs of the large and a number of mid-sized banks, with a view to containing the ongoing pressures on the TL.We were not, of course, in the meeting, but ...

Three economically dangerous electoral weapons
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

In an increasingly hostile social and political climate, the government has started to worry about the coming electoral events. These include the simultaneous and obligatory open primaries (PASO, Primarias Abiertas Simultaneas y Obligatorias) on September 12 and the midterm election on November 1...

April data reflects a much smaller lockdown effect than last year
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2021 · 1 response

Most recent Covid news has been just excellent. In spite of the recent slowdown of vaccination, reopening measures have not led to any pickup in the epidemic. On the contrary, Covid figures continue to improve. New variants of the virus have not had any tangible impact so far. The next question w...

Russia claims to have fired warning shots at UK warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

On June 23 Moscow said one of its warships and jets in the Black Sea fired to scare off the Royal Naval vessel because it was threatening the entrance to a naval base. The plane supposedly dropped four bombs on the path of the ship after a Russian warship had fired warning shots near HMS Defender...

Government should submit bill that changes income tax and creates a new tax on profits and dividends, Roberto Campos Neto and Gilmar Mendes meet to discuss the law that grants the Central Bank autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2021

President of the House Arthur Lira should appoint rapporteurs for the income tax bill and the goods and services (CBS) bill. The Senate approved the provisional measure that increases the CSLL for banks. The STF should conclude voting on the Central Bank law by August 2.

Yet more sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

On June 21 the EU announced a new round of sanctions on President Lukashenka and his family. 78 people and 8 organizations are on the sanctions list. Politicians, judges, prosecutors and others are on the list. The sanctions mean asset freezes and visa bans. Arms sales are also to be limited.The ...

Russian macro: exchange rate in a comfort zone to favor growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2021

Russian imports continued to soar in April – both in absolute and y-o-y terms. They reached $26.3 bln that month, a level not seen since mid-2014 (an increase of 49.4% y-o-y). In 2Q20 imports contracted relatively moderately (by 13.0% y-o-y) compared with the increase seen in April and the expect...

The MNB met interest rate expectations today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2021

Today, the MNB delivered on its promises:- They raised the base rate by 30 bps to 0.9%, the first hike for nearly ten years. This exactly met analyst expectation.- The 1-week deposit rate will go to 0.9% as well, meaning an effective rate hike of 15 bps. The base rate is becoming the effective st...

Provisonal measure on the privatization of Eletrobras approved in the House, Dep. Osmar Terra testifies in the COVID CPI, and President of the House Arthur Lira gave an interview to O Globo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2021

President Bolsonaro has 15 days after receiving the provisional measure on Eletrobras to sanction or veto the text. The government should submit a provisional measure to Congress on the water crisis. Minister Ricardo Lewandowski voted in favor of the unconstitutionality of the law that grants the...

​KUWAIT: Budget passes despite opposition resistance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jun 2021

The National Assembly today narrowly passed the 2021/2 budget, despite the abstention of most MPs. The opposition has suggested that the Assembly might not be put into recess for the summer, during which the government could pass a debt law and fiscal reforms by decree. We think the reforms, alth...

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