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Weekly Tracker: June 23-29
TURKEY - Report 23 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryWe know our readers have their hands full with bigger issues like China, Brazil and the QE exit, so to save on reading time, we summarized our baseline political scenarios in light of some FAQs:Gezi Parki and related demonstrations: 55% chance they will wind down over the summer,...

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Constitutional Chamber will hear all Electoral Impugnation Cases
VENEZUELA - In Brief 21 Jun 2013
The Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), headed by Gladys Ramirez, president of TSJ, announced its decision to hear all the cases related to the impugnation of the 14 April 2013 presidential election, until now in the hands of the Electoral Chamber.Henrique Capriles we...

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CNI/IBOPE: Research Conducted Before the Start of the Demonstrations Showed A Fall in President Rousseff’s Popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryThe latest research from CNI/IBOPE, conducted before the outbreak of demonstrations across the country that began on June 13, showed a decline in the positive evaluation of Dilma Rousseff's government, with approval falling from 63% to 55%. Furthermore, for the first time since D...

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The Currency Account Deficit Tapers
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Jun 2013
According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed in the first quarter of 2013, an indication of a resurgence in export activity. Consequently, the ratio of the current account balance to the gross domestic product was-5.8% i...

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MPC: Most Predictable in a Long Time
TURKEY - Report 18 Jun 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee left all rates as well as all other levers of monetary policy (reserve ratios, ROCs, etc.) untouched, exactly in line with the consensus (see graph). The statement was also the plainest we've read in a long time.As before, the Bank reiterated that domestic demand is ...

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Creeping Poverty
MEXICO - Report 18 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryLast week, Mexico's federal government announced that it intends to issue one trillion pesos (roughly USD 78.8 billion) in loans through the country's development banks over the course of 2013. Officials report that this sum would mark a real 10% increase in such credit compared ...

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The Political Prize of the Economy
MEXICO - Report 18 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryThe poor showing of the Mexican economy during the first months of the year could have significant political repercussions as voters prepare to head to the polls in 14 states this July 7. The wave of optimism the PRI was riding as it took office last December – polls at the time ...

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A Wave of Demonstrations Threatens the Government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Jun 2013
A series of demonstrations that began in São Paulo last week, originally against the readjustment of bus fares, is growing in size as it spreads across the country. On Monday night, according to the Datafolha Institute, about 65,000 people attended the demonstration in Brasilia. In Rio de Janeiro...

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CBT Unlikely to Change Rates
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Jun 2013
Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

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Investments: Beware of Over-optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Jun 2013
The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the q...

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Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY - Report 16 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

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Markets Stirred; Economy Will Chug Along
PHILIPPINES - Report 14 Jun 2013
Just two weeks after the government announced much-better-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth in 1Q2013, which bucked the regional growth slowdown, local stock prices grabbed headlines with the worst one-day dive since the Lehman crisis in October 2008.Many were stunned by the steep fall, especially fo...

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President Putin Unveils Budget Policy Address for 2014-2016 - Shows Support for Minfin Policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
V. Putin officially presented yesterday the Address on a meeting with the Government, Presidential Administration, CBR and Duma leaders (http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/5581). Budget Policy Address is an official document signed by the President. It can be seen as a guide to the Government on fiscal p...

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Erdogan backs down on Gezi Parki
TURKEY - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that a.      As long the current injunction by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze the parkb.      Regardless of the final court verdict a plescibite will be heldIn return AKP wants protestors to vacate the Gezi Park. Ye...

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Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Jun 2013
Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative amid outflow of capital from the region.  On balance, recent global financial developments positive for the Philippines providing breathing room for overbought financial markets (peso depreciated, interest rates up, stock prices down).  If sus...