GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

Of electrons and tax reforms

COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Petro administration submitted its tax reform proposal to Congress in August instead of October, out of sync with the usual timing. This was the first major act of the new government, which speaks volumes. Unsurprisingly, the expected yield is nowhere near the COP 50 trillion (3.5% of GDP, us...

Election campaigns begin, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the TSE, and the working group on the ICMS issue meets

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will have some difficulties ahead. According to the polls, he is behind his main opponent, former President Lula, and has the highest rate of rejection among the candidates. Both Bolsonaro and Lula are expected to attend the inauguration ceremony at the TSE. Their partici...

Five Europeans on trial for their lives in East Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2022

On August 15 the pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk began to try a Croat, a Swede and three Britons. They have been charged with being mercenaries and face the death penalty if convicted. Three foreigners have already been sentenced to death for being mercenaries in Donetsk. So far no one has been exe...

Politics: State of Mexico elections are key to the 2024 presidential race

MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

Although still 10 months away, the 2023 elections in the State of Mexico are already shaping up to be a key political battle, with nationwide implications for the 2024 elections. The importance of this gubernatorial race is not only because the State of Mexico is the country’s most populated and ...

The American Economy and the Brazilian Scenario for 2023

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

To formulate scenarios for 2023, a fundamental piece of the current puzzle is the evolution of the economy in the United States. Initially, it is necessary to distinguish the effects of high-frequency movements of the S&P500 on the IBOVESPA (a large part of the recent recovery of the IBOVESPA has...

The 2022 ANC Elective Congress and Its Emerging Possible Outcomes

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

As mentioned in our previous reports, 2022 is a critical year for SA’s democratic political evolution. The governing party, The African National Congress (ANC), is heading for its all-important December 2022 National Elective Congress at which the Party’s new leadership structures and its “presid...

Political climate to heat up and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The election campaign begins. Online advertising, marches and rallies will be allowed. On Tuesday, August 16, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). On August 18, three blocks of 15 airports in the North, Southeast and Midwest regions will be au...

Stabilizing inertia is weakening

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The anti-inflationary policy based on containing bolivar depreciation yielded modest results in July. Inflation slowed down to 7.0 percent from 9.5 percent in June, while the bolivar depreciated in nominal terms against the dollar by only 2.6 percent after having done so by 9.3 percent the month ...

Economics: Pemex continues to catch a break but may have squandered the chance to profitably apply the price-fueled windfall

MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

In keeping with the general tenor of the company’s first quarter report, Pemex’s April-June performance continued to greatly benefit from the market conditions that have sent crude and gas prices sharply higher. The company’s second quarter results showed added momentum on numerous upstream and d...

Rebels to rubles

TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It is useful to watch the time-travel spy thriller “Tenet” (link here) before reading this brief note. Like in that controversial movie, the action in this essay moves from front to back and side-to-side. That is, it jumps from Erdogan’s new initiative to reach out to Syrian President Assad t...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 15 Aug 2022

* Rapid shekel appreciation continued last week, reducing our inflation forecast as well as our rate forecast. * Economic indicators remain generally positive, especially the business sector survey (including high-tech). * We expect July’s CPI to reach 0.7% m/m (4.7% y/y) on higher food,...

S&P rating action, Guardian on local courts, construction industry and the strong dollar: the forint is under some pressure again

HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The forint is still trading on the strong side of the important EURHUF 400 line, which is great, but it has come under some pressure this morning. Besides today's strong dollar, which is normally negative for the Hungarian currency, there are some domestic factors behind this as well. First, S&P ...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate monetary tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2022

Consumers are pessimistic but the business sector sees growth ahead: The CBS consumer index declined in July to the lowest level since October 2020 (Covid lockdown), especially the forward-looking components. The Business Sector Tendency Survey points to steady growth and expectations of further ...

Russian macro: balance of payments undergoing radical change

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

As the group of “unfriendly” countries is working hard to prepare the mechanism that could impose a price cap on Russian oil exports and is trying to convince other countries to join their club, it is worth looking at Russia’s balance of payments and consider its possible evolution. It looks as t...