Country Insights

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Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 29 Oct 2013
According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

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Scaling Back Revenues
MEXICO - Report 29 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Banco de México announced Friday that it was lowering its target interbank lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The move, which was widely expected, was the central bank’s third rate cut year to date. In the statement accompanying the rate announcement, Banco de ...

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Euro-integration Stories
UKRAINE - Report 29 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Every other burning issue seems forgotten, as the whole country waits to see whether Ukraine and the EU will sign the Association Agreement. Businesses are anticipating positive news. The FX market has calmed, since officials have promised lots of foreign cash after the signing....

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Argentina 2013 Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA - In Brief 28 Oct 2013 1 response
When analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should focus on two main aspects.1) The government new power balance in the Congress2) The outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates.  With respect to the first point: despite a relatively mediocre electo...

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Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA - Report 28 Oct 2013
As we mentioned in the Global Source Partner Direct webpage, when analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should primarily focus on two main aspects. The government new power balance in the CongressThe outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates With ...

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Dominican Rep Issues USD 500 Millions in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 28 Oct 2013
Last week, the Government of the Dominican Republic issued USD 500 in Sovereign Bonds at a 6.6% interest rate. Citibank was in charge of the operation. Initial offers amounted to USD 1,750 millions, 3.5 times the amount offered. According to the Ministerio de Hacienda, the amount issued correspon...

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Cooling of the Labor Market and Perspectives for Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Oct 2013
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September rose slightly, from 5.3% to 5.4%, still near the historic low levels where it has hovered for some time now. This could lead to the conclusion that the job market remains hot, favoring growth of consumption. But a deeper look at the informati...

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Political Insights: Week of October 28
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Oct 2013
The unification of the ICMS will dominate discussions in the Senate. The ICMS will also be debated by Confaz. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will vote on the bill of law to create the compensation funds for state and municipal losses.In the House, we highlight the Civil Framework for the In...

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Banxico Overconfident?
MEXICO - In Brief 25 Oct 2013
Banco de México just announced a 25 basis point reduction in the Domestic Interbank Rate, to an annual 3.5%. It was an expected move by most market operators, i.e. 23 out of 24 participants of the latest Banamex Money Market Survey. Banxico justified this action based on the fact that domestic in...

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COSTA RICA: Finance Minister Campaigns for a Deficit Cut
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 25 Oct 2013
Executive SummaryCosta Rican Finance Minister Edgar Ayales is trying to turn the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit into an electoral issue, in the runup to the February 2014 presidential vote. He recently released a 52-page missive, in which he and his team analyzed the results of six months of...

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Public Insecurity Worsens Further
MEXICO - Report 23 Oct 2013
Executive Summary The overall crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants has risen consistently since 2010 according to the National Statistics Office’s Third National Victimization and Security Perception Survey or “ENVIPE”. The study, conducted between March and April of 2013, queried people on matters...

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MPC: Cut and Paste, Wait and See
TURKEY - Report 23 Oct 2013
As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left all rates (weekly policy as well as the O/N rates; see graph) and all other policy levers unchanged today. The wording of the statement was literally a carbon copy of the September statement (click here for this and here for the previous statements....

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Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (Mini-Budget): 23 October 2013
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 23 Oct 2013
In his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, the SA Minister of Finance walked a tight rope, made all the right moves and repeated messages of political support for the National Development Plan.  He was ever-conscious of the importance of macroeconomic stability, given the country’s twin deficits...

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MPC: No Action, No Change in Wording...
TURKEY - In Brief 23 Oct 2013
Today’s MPC decision made no changes in rates or other instruments. The wording was almost exactly the same as well. There should be no market impact.  A more detailed brief will be available later today.

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Industrial Decoupling’s Future
MEXICO - Report 23 Oct 2013
Executive Summary The most significant news on the economic front last week was the Chamber of Deputies’ vote to pass its version of the 2014 Revenue Law. Changes to tax laws include the levying of a 5% tax on junk food (fruit-flavored candies, chocolates, chips or crisps, gelatins, ice cream, an...