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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South African reserves and their role as the country’s financial buffer
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jun 2021

Although the South African Reserve Bank has indicated during past bouts of the rand’s depreciation that it would not intervene by using the country’s reserves, South Africa’s reserves, which include gold and other foreign reserves, are an important liquidity buffer that can be used against foreig...

Dep. Luis Miranda and his brother tesify in the COVID CPI, Minister Paulo Guedes submits the second phase of Tax Reform to Congress, and President Bolsonaro’s rate of rejection increases by 6%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2021

Arthur Lira belives the second phase of Tax Reform should have an easier time in the House than the first phase. Deputy Miranda asked the CPI to arrest Minister Onyx Lorenzoni for claiming he was lying about the corruption scheme involving the purchase of Covaxin.

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain proposes Qatar airspace talks, Oman’s nominal unemployment doubles, fistfight in Kuwait’s parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Jun 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states, bar Saudi and Bahrain, congratulated Raisi for winning the Iranian election. * Iran’s monitoring agreement with the IAEA expired as nuclear talks enter their final stage of brinkmanship before a deal. * Aram...

EU introduces broad sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2021

On June 24 the EU announced sanctions on potash, tobacco, petroleum and petrochemical products. This is all in response to Belarus forcing a Ryanair plane to land in Belarus in May 2021. There had been some doubt that sanctions would include potash because Belarus accounts for 25% of the EU's pot...

Fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus and a game of chicken
CHILE · Report · 24 Jun 2021

The economic recovery that started in July 2020 was interrupted in late March 2021 by a resurgence of the contagion, and the re-imposition of mobility restrictions. April’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) fell by less than expected, and considering that national mobility increased in ...

Dep. Luis Miranda claims he notified President Bolsonaro of possible corruption, Minister of the Environment Ricardo Salles resigns, and Dep. Margarete Coelho submits report on Electoral Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2021

Onix Lorenzoni says Deputy Luis Miranda and his brother are falsely accusing President Bolsonaro. Ricardo Salles is being investigated by the Federal Police for allegedly participating in a corruption scheme. Provisional Measures 1034 and 1040 were approved in the House.

Transparency in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jun 2021

The arrest and charges against senior executives at Hong Kong’s remaining independent newspaper, Apple Daily, and the freezing of US$2.3 million in corporate accounts, has sent a chill throughout Hong Kong. The move against Apple Daily signals a heightened attack against the free press in Hong Ko...

The passing of Benigno Aquino III
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jun 2021

Manila woke up today to news of the death of former President Benigno Aquino III who served from 2010 to 2016. An accidental chief executive, he owed his election to his mother, democracy icon Corazon Aquino, who died in August 2009 just as the country was gearing up for election season. For six ...

Inflation decelerates w-o-w, albeit slowly, implying an acceleration y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that consumer prices increased by 0.12% in the seven days ending on June 21. Therefore, inflation reached 0.40% in the three weeks of June and 3.89% YTD (2.63% YTD over the same period in 2020). Inflation is likely to be slightly above 0.5% in June implying an acceleration in y-o...

Industrial output growth gathers pace in May and 5M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output was up by 11.8% and 3.2% y-o-y in May and 4M21. Even though, according to the tradition, Rosstat revised up previously reported data for April seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output grew by 1.1% m-o-m in May. Mining was still down in 5M...

Stronger yuan against a weak dollar
CHINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

Growth was stable in May. Industrial output rose 8.8% y/y, and increased 13.6% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6%. Investment rose 15.4% y/y, and increased 8.5% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.2% y/y -- still in a low growth zone. Consumption has recovered...

Monetary policy's Groundhog Day
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

According to some media reports (e.g., link here and here), the CBRT Governor Sahap Kavcioglu held a meeting at the Banks’ Association with the CEOs of the large and a number of mid-sized banks, with a view to containing the ongoing pressures on the TL.We were not, of course, in the meeting, but ...

Three economically dangerous electoral weapons
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

In an increasingly hostile social and political climate, the government has started to worry about the coming electoral events. These include the simultaneous and obligatory open primaries (PASO, Primarias Abiertas Simultaneas y Obligatorias) on September 12 and the midterm election on November 1...

April data reflects a much smaller lockdown effect than last year
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2021 · 1 response

Most recent Covid news has been just excellent. In spite of the recent slowdown of vaccination, reopening measures have not led to any pickup in the epidemic. On the contrary, Covid figures continue to improve. New variants of the virus have not had any tangible impact so far. The next question w...

Russia claims to have fired warning shots at UK warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

On June 23 Moscow said one of its warships and jets in the Black Sea fired to scare off the Royal Naval vessel because it was threatening the entrance to a naval base. The plane supposedly dropped four bombs on the path of the ship after a Russian warship had fired warning shots near HMS Defender...

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