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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts. * Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d. * The Saudi budget sees tax revenue...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

- Trump’s possible future effects on the CIS examined - Russia updates nuclear doctrine in response to Western weapons targeting its territory - Government rides out protests in Georgia - COP 29 in Azerbaijan provokes new diplomatic row with France

Kazakhstan macro: Budget 2025 looks safer now with a weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Nov 2024

A couple of days ago, Majilis (the lower chamber of the Kazakh parliament) reportedly approved the updated version of the republican 2025 budget along with the indicative budgets for several following years. Legislators also amended the revenues and expenditures of the 2024 Kazakh republican budg...

The measures in the fiscal package may be sent to Congress today, Congress members are still waiting for the STF to address the parliamentary fund transfers issue, and Lula may make appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

The measures included in the fiscal package announced by the government on Wednesday could reach the National Congress today. According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the package involves a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and a complementary bill. A critical matter that lawm...

In technical recession, light
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2024

In the third quarter, Turkish GDP rose by 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, but contracted slightly by 0.2% (sequentially) over the previous quarter in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms. With the downward revision of the second quarter sequential growth rate to -0.2%, q/...

Growth remained strong
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024

The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result in Q3 2024, albeit lower than the previous quarter, at 4.95%. This was slightly below the 5.05% annual growth in Q2 2024. The 3Q rate of growth led growth for first three quarters of 2024 to 5.03%. Compared to the previous quarter, t...

Winston Churchill’s Wisdom
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

The long-postponed "fiscal adjustment package" has finally come to light. The reaction was so negative that some suggested another postponement would have been a better option. The first conclusion we draw, as we will explore further, is that the magnitude of the promised adjustment falls shor...

Nov CCA Highlights: Armenia lowers CPI target, Azerbaijan grows strongly in Oct, Georgia sells record-high FX to prop up lari, Uzbekistan delays meeting CPI target
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024

We discuss briefly the key macro and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia this Nov: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.2% YoY in 3Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator decelerates to 4.2% YoY in Oct Armenia: CPI steady in Oct at 0.6% YoY Armenia: CB to lower inflation target to 3% in 20...

Central Bank Reduces Monetary Policy Rate Again and Announces Liquidity Increase
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

The Central Bank has once again reduced the monetary policy rate, lowering it by 25 basis points to 6% annually, effective December 2024. The permanent facility rate has been decreased to 6.50% annually, while the overnight deposit rate has been set at 4.5% annually. Additionally, this week the C...

Finance minister Mihály Varga is now officially nominated for central bank governor
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

PM Orbán, the person having the right to nominate the next governor of the MNB, named Mr. Varga as his candidate this morning. Mr. Varga is 59 years old, and as he has just said, he spent 4800 days as finance minister (occasionally as economy and finance minister). His appointment for the post is...

Political noise and its more serious impact
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

It started with unity, and it might as well end up in one single stroke to rock the Philippine economy. The political situation in the Philippines seems to be getting more explosive from an economic standpoint. Indeed, the unity team of President Bongbong Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte wa...

Further disinflation is less and less likely, with EURHUF at 413-414 today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Source: tradingeconomics.com Since September 26, the start of the latest downtrend of EUR against USD, the euro appreciated against HUF by 4.4%, and the dollar strengthened against HUF by 9%. So the forint did markedly worse than other CEE currencies, against which the EUR rose by 0.9% (PLN), 0.5...

Recent statistics point to no change: steady economic growth, uneven by sectors, amid accelerating inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 10M24, the output of five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In October alone, it was up by 3.4% y-o-y – dragged on by poor numbers in agriculture and construction. The former fell by 3.8%, while the latter was up by a mere 2.2% (both numbers are y-o-y for 10M24). This yea...

Haddad may submit the spending package tomorrow, the CCJ will hold its final public hearing today, and the STF will rule on the case regarding the Internet Civil Framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2024

According to the interim government leader in the Senate, Otto Alencar (PSD-BA), Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to present the spending cut package to the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), during the leaders' meeting on Thursday morning. Today, the Senate's Constitu...

Worry in the runup to a second Trump administration
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

El Salvador’s macroeconomic conditions are worsening. Economic activity has continued to be relatively stagnant, and has yet to show positive results from economic policy actions other than in some scattered indicators, such as in tourism. Foreign remittances have decelerated, while the fiscal de...

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