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Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Aug 2025

The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pa...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes again, IMF Saudi Art IV, Kuwait’s finance minister resigns, Israel to fully occupy Gaza
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ hiked allocations for September by 547k b/d, fully unwinding the Jan-24 voluntary cuts. * Brent crude dipped midweek to a two-month low of $65 on the OPEC+ hike and US-Russia news. * MBZ visited Moscow as Putin said...

Today is the deadline for Lula to sign the environmental licensing bill, VP Alckmin met with the U.S. Chargé d’Affairs, and the Senate will hold confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2025

Today marks the deadline for President Lula (PT) either to sign or veto the environmental licensing bill (Bill No. 2,159/21). Yesterday, Alckmin met with the Chargé d’Affaires of the U.S. Embassy, Gabriel Escobar, and stated that Brazil is open to putting other issues on the negotiating table. In...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is making good progress with renewable energy sources
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Aug 2025

In the past several days, two stories about the energy industry of Uzbekistan have made headlines. First, Uzbekistan and SOCAR Azerbaijan have entered into a production sharing agreement (PSA) on the Ustyurt plateau with expectations of investing US$2bn and discovering an impressive 100mn tons of...

July inflation data was moderately disappointing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2025

The headline rate was reported at 0.4% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter down from 4.6% in June, core inflation fell to 0.4% mom, 4% yoy, down from 4.4% yoy in the previous month, and non-fuel inflation was 0.4% mom, 4.9% yoy, the latter falling only marginally, from 5% yoy previously: This was somewhat ...

Supply-side cutbacks in China—real or a red herring?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2025

China’s overcapacity is leading to global price deflation as the country exports subsidized goods. The government has discussed supply-side reform—but how real is this? Does China have the political capacity to reduce production enough to change global supply dynamics? Supply-side reform is no...

Motta managed to reopen the House floor, Justice Moraes has allowed members of Bolsonaro’s family to visit him without prior approval, and Lula said he does not intend to call Trump but plans to speak with Xi Jinping
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2025

Yesterday, President of the House Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) managed to negotiate with the opposition to allow the Lower House floor to reopen. He also threatened to impose six-month suspensions on lawmakers who continue to occupy the floor in an attempt to obstruct legislative sessions. Yester...

Inflation warning: Expect the year-on-year headline rate fall significantly in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

CPI-inflation data for July is due in the morning tomorrow. In June, the yoy headline rate was 4.6%. Against that, analysts, including us, expect a material reduction to 4.1% yoy (the median value in Portfolio.hu's monthly analyst poll). This reduction would be due essentially to two base effects...

2nd quarter economic growth steady
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

The signs were known as early as June 2025 that economic growth in the Philippines would remain flat at the lower end of the revised GDP growth for the year 2025 of 5.5-6.5%. The average growth for the last five quarters stood at around 5.5-5.6%.   Source: Philippine Statistics Authority The Phil...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

Jul 24 KMG: Kazakhstan increased oil refining by 8.4% y-o-y in 1H25. Government: Turkish investors to build grain processing and fertilizer production plants in Kazakhstan for $610 mln. Jul 28 Asian Development Bank: The bank improved Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1%, and t...

Foreigners were the dominant segment supporting shekel appreciation in Q2
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025

The Israeli shekel appreciated significantly in Q2 2025, gaining approximately 9.3% against the US dollar and 1.5% against the euro, driven by improved investor sentiment following Operation “Am KeLavi” and broad-based dollar weakness in global markets. The shekel also strengthened by 6% in effec...

Industry and retail sales figures for June: no trend change seen, business as usual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025

Preliminary industrial output and retail sales data (volume growth on sda basis) for June has been reported this morning. A quick look at the fixed-base chart below (volumes, Dec 2010=100, source: KSH) serves with the easy conclusion that there has not been any change in the long-standing trends,...

Credit where credit is due
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Copom minutes revive the curious formula of the “continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle,” reaffirming the end of monetary tightening without stating it outright. This is, after all, a continuation of the decision made in June, which helps explain the scarcity of significant...

Members of Congress obstructed legislative activity yesterday, Trump’s tariffs take effect today, and the federal government may announce countermeasures today or tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Liberal Party (PL), along with representatives from União Brasil, the Progressita Party (PP), and the Republicanos, obstructed legislative activity in both the Lower House and the Senate. The effectiveness of the opposition’s obstruction strategy still hinges on whether other centrist parties...

Macro thoughts
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

It’s been a calm summer thus far, relatively speaking, despite an uneasy and uncertain political backdrop. The latter is likely to stay so indefinitely, we think, which should start taking a toll on the economy and markets, come late this year/early next. Economic activity has generally held u...

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