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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates In October, the CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (according to consensus, we were leaning towards 0.6%), and remained stable at 3.5% y/y. Core inflation (The CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% last month, mostly due to ...

Improved electricity supply sparks optimism for South Africa's economic outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2024

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was only 0.4% higher in H1-2024 than it was during the corresponding period in 2023. The country’s logistical issues remain a major hindrance to economic activity, while there was heightened uncertainty due to the May 29th general elec...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...

Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024

How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...

Economic growth remains strong enough in October but is uneven among sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

As the tenge slowly climbs toward the USD/KZT 500 milestone mark amid some unwillingness of the regulators to see it weakening, as the NBK occasionally reiterates its intentions to “support” the currency, the Kazakh economy keeps growing relatively fast. This “support” largely stems from the need...

One dead after bombing in front of the STF, the government is concerned about the approval of Tax Reform regulation by the end of the year, and the bill on parliamentary fund transfers should be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2024

Regarding the explosions that occurred yesterday (November 13) in Brasília (DF), at the Praça dos Três Poderes, leaving one man dead, it is worth noting that, instead of invoking fear, it rekindles a sense of unity among the branches of government and authorities in defense of democracy, reminisc...

Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Nov 2024

The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain. Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on ...

GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Oct 30 Government: Due to the Tengiz project expansion, Kazakhstan expects to receive $2.8 bln in the budget by the end of 2025. Economy Ministry: The foreign assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan will amount to $78.7 bln by 2027. Kazakhstan Automobile Union: Production of motor vehicles in K...

Strong export growth is shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

Exports surged in recent months. In August-October, industrial exports increased by 15% q/q, with strong growth in sectors identified as mostly defense: Metal products/machinery and transport equipment, but in pharma and chemical products as well. But generally, high-tech exports were up 14%. Imp...

A new poll shows the government’s disapproval rating has reached the highest level yet, the market awaits the announcement of the fiscal package, and Senator Barros made changes to the carbon credit bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2024

Yesterday, CNT/MDA released a government approval rating poll. Disapproval of the government has reached its highest level since Lula began his third term. In May 2023, it was at 35% and has now risen to 46%. Meanwhile, the market awaits the announcement of the fiscal adjustment promised by the g...

Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 20...

Slide Presentation - GCC Outlook: Oil, diversification, regional conflicts and US relations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2024

Get insight into the GCC's views on the outlook for oil, the trends in economic diversification, how the regional conflict could impact the Gulf states, and how relations with the US could change under the Trump administration with the slide presentation from our webinar, "GCC Outlook: Oil, dive...

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