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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

OFZ: Expecting foreign demand in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Today the Finance Ministry conducted the last OFZ primary auction in 2020. Significant FX market volatility and the quickly setting holiday mood influenced the government’s decision to offer the symbolic R10.7 bln of inflation-linker, which was more than 3 times oversubscribed. As a result the ag...

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Introspection at the end of 2020
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Balance of payments data show that the current account deficit continued to shrink, from a 3.6% of GDP deficit at the start of 2020, to 3% in Q2, then 2.7% in Q3. While this reduces the economy’s exposure to financing gaps, the reduction deserves a closer look. The improvement in remittances and ...

MPC Preview: The good, the bad…and the minimalist
TURKEY · Report · 23 Dec 2020

The CBRT/MPC will hold arguably the most crucial rate-setting meeting of recent times tomorrow (December 24). Various polls point to a consensus of around 150 bps hike of the policy rate (median), with estimates ranging between 75-200 bps. What do we expect? The title above sums up the three poss...

Mysterious non-residents: the hryvnia weakens signaling eased demand for local state bonds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

On Dec 22nd MinFin managed to raise UAH 18.3 billion and $138.5 million locally. That’s an apparent success even though the issuance less than a week ago on Dec 15th was twice as large. The lion's share of the issue, UAH 13.8 billion as well as $138.5 million, has less than a one-year maturity. S...

​Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two years​
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two yearsThe Israeli Parliament will disperse, and elections are expected on March 23rd. This is the fourth time in two years, a sign of political instability. Nevertheless, we do not think this is necessarily a negative development this time around...

Russia launches new Arctic ship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

On December 18 a ship named North Pole made its maiden voyage from St Petersburg. The 83 meter ship is to explore the Arctic. The North Pole is to be a permanent research ship.The ship will study the geology and oceanography of the North Pole. The ship is run by the state meteorology service. The...

COSTA RICA: Edging toward an IMF deal
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2020

Costa Rica is now closer to a serious and formal fiscal adjustment process. We have been skeptical in our previous reports about the willingness, the scale and the timing of the required adjustment, although always keeping hope for an agreement with the IMF in Q1 2021. At last, President Carlos A...

One problem solved, on to the next
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

As anticipated, the Board of Directors of the IMF approved the second disbursement for Ecuador for $2.0b. This disbursement will be used mainly to catch up with arrears with local governments, public servants, and private sector suppliers, as announced by Minister Mauricio Pozo.On the other hand,...

US sanctions 45 Russian entities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

On December 21 the Department of Commerce imposed sanctions on Russian and Chinese entities. Most of these are companies. The Russian companies are not allowed access to particular kinds of technology. The list of companies that manufacture aircraft, rocketry and nuclear energy is much longer tha...

Chinese lawsuit against Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

On December 17 investors from China launched a legal action against the Ukrainian Government. They brought a USD 3.5 billion arbitration case. Kyiv refused to allow the aviation engine manufacturer Motor Sich to be sold to the Chinese. The US lobbied hard for Kyiv to do this.Skyrizon is the organ...

Russia bans flights from UK for a week
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

On December 21 Russia took a snap decision to ban all flights to and from the United Kingdom. The ban takes effect at midnight on December 22 and will last until December 29.Many countries have prohibited flights from the United Kingdom owing to the new and more virulent strain of coronavirus tha...

Politics: US-Mexico security cooperation in doubt
MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2020

Last week, the Mexican Congress amended the country’s National Security Law to regulate the presence and operations of foreign agents within Mexico. Everything indicates that the regulatory changes are directly aimed at US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) agents operating in the country. The changes...

Economics: Risk sources expand as the year ends
MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2020 · 1 response

In this, our last issue for a year in which Mexico’s economy will experience its greatest contraction in 90 years, we take a quick look at the direction of the most recent economic indicators, assess sources of heightened risk moving forward, and offer our outlook for the coming year. There have...

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