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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Belarus's Constitution to be altered in favor of Lukashenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

On December 27 draft amendments to the constitution were announced. These would copper-fasten the president's control over the country and permit him to remain en poste until 2035.President Lukashenko, 67, said that the changes will be the subject of a referendum in February 2022. Lukashenko was ...

NASA still wants to work with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

Notwithstanding poor relations with Moscow, the US is still eager to deepen cooperation on the International Space Station, until 2030 at least. On December 31 the NASA Administrator said so. The International Space Station (ISS) is run by the US, Russia and other countries.NASA is happy to conti...

Armenia to allow imports from Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Dec 2021

On December 30 Yerevan announced that the ban on purchasing Turkish goods will not be extended. Armenia introduced a ban on Turkish products in 2020 to penalize the Turks for supporting Azerbaijan in a war against Armenia. The ban was for a year.As of January 1 2022, it will be lawful to import T...

New increase in the monetary policy rate in a context of inflationary pressure and strong economic recovery
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic announced an increase in the monetary policy rate of 100 basis points, placing said rate at 4.5% per year. It is the second time that the monetary policy rate has increased after the reductions experienced during 2020 in order to support the economic rec...

China and Russia to agree space cooperation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

On December 29 the two nations announced that they will sign a Cooperation Program for 2023-27. The signing will take place in early 2022 and it will include building the International Lunar Research Station by 2035.Roscosmos and Chinese state media both announced the agreement to sign. Why is it...

The last charts of 2021
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In this last econ report of 2021, we share a few pictures --and a bit of text-- on the latest (macro) state of affairs. Growth has remained stronger than envisaged throughout the year, but inflation has surged, too, likely exceeding 30% in December. We think an abrupt slowdown in economic acti...

Season’s greetings from Rosstat: as the revised numbers suggest 2020 GDP contraction was not as deep as reported earlier, the 2021 dynamics will look better as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

Rosstat just reported that the 2020 GDP was higher in nominal terms, and contraction in real terms was not as significant as reported earlier - the new figure is 2.7% instead of 3.0%. Rosstat also revised up Russia’s GDP 2019 growth to 2.2% (from 2.0% reported earlier). Even though making such re...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...

The 1-week depo rate ends the year at 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

The MNB held this year's last 1-week deposit tender today. On this occasion, it set the fixed interest rate for the tender at 4%, 20 bps up from last week's level. This was pretty much unsurprising, after exactly the same amount of increase a week ago.In total, the Bank has raised the 1-week depo...

Economic performance looks good in November, albeit high inflation in December disappoints
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, trade, transport, construction) increased y-o-y in November and 11M21 by 7.1% and 6.4%. This y-o-y growth in November looked strong due to stronger than expected production growth in agriculture (due to late harves...

Argentina ends 2021 in an economic quagmire
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

The level of economic activity has recovered from Covid 19’s deep fall during 2020, and the rate of unemployment went down, restoring to the level of the third quarter of 2019. However, inflation is ending the year as high as in 2019. These macro indicators do not show the more worrisome aspect o...

Russian risk and domestic drama
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Dec 2021

All the diplomatic moves around tensions between Russia and Ukraine reaffirm our initial view that Vladimir Putin is just bargaining for concessions on the global level. Moscow is looking to increase its importance, but it’s highly improbable that the Russian president is prepared to become the n...

US-Russia summit scheduled for January 10
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

The meeting will take place in Switzerland and will be to discuss Ukraine. Moscow demands a legally binding promise that Ukraine shall never be admitted to NATO. The US has said that this is a non-starter.NATO has suggested a conference with Russia on January 12. The Organization for Security and...

GDP grew 25.5% in Q3, anticipating a double-digit growth rate for 2021, but challenges remain, including the pension reform and the GAFI review in February
PANAMA · Report · 29 Dec 2021

On December 17, INEC published the GDP results for the third quarter of 2021: a 25.5% growth rate compared to Q3 2020 (reporting nominal activity of US$16,167 million). During Q2, the real growth rate was 40.0%, following a decrease of 8.4% in Q1. Value added in Q3 was US$10,338 million or 14% ab...

Ending 2021 with cheers
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2021

The year 2021 was indeed a challenging year. The pandemic was not yet declared over, and the overhang led to continued uncertainty in the global economy. But in ending this year, Indonesia has seen some reasons to cheer. The first reason, as mentioned in our previous reports, is the amount of ...

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