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The ANC acknowledges the deterioration of the Party during its 110th anniversary celebrations, but will it enact the necessary reforms?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In sticking with tradition, and despite South Africa’s fourth wave of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, the governing African National Congress (ANC) had its annual celebration of the founding of the party (January 8, 1912). Since 1972, the party has used these annual celebrations as an op...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jan 2022

1. Both business and consumer sentiment remained fairly strong in December, despite Omicron, but January will probably witness some decline. 2. Wage growth moderated in October, supportive of modest inflationary pressure. 3. The expansion of the monetary base slowed in 2021, following ...

Industrial output and prospects seem improving
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

The performance of the industrial sector has been a genuine weak point lately, because of the global supply problem related to semiconductors, hitting car manufacturing and to a lesser extent the electronics industry.Against this backdrop, the latest output and PMI data reflects material improvem...

Omicron watch 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

In the span of one week, new Covid19 cases spiked from a 7-day average of less than 2k as of Jan 2 to over 16k as of Jan 9. In the latest batch of 48 Covid19 cases sequenced, the Philippine Genome Center detected the Omicron variant in 29 of the samples, making it the dominant strain. Although Me...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jan 2022

Business and consumer confidence remains strong in DecemberThe Business Tendency Survey for December reflects expectations of further expansion in all sectors, except for the hotel sector (due to incoming flight restrictions).The Poalim consumer confidence index improved slightly in December and ...

2022: Something has to give
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

Kazakh former security chief arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2022

On January 8 Karimov Massimov was taken into custody and accused of being a traitor. He was once Prime Minister and head of the internal intelligence agency (NBK) since 2016. On January 5 he was fired as chairman of the NBK by President Tokayev. Several years ago it had even been rumored that Mas...

Russian macro: recent Rosstat revision promises stronger growth in 2021-2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Rosstat announced at the very end of December 2021 that it had revised Russia’s annual GDP statistics for 2019-2020. The quarterly GDP numbers, however, have not been upgraded either for 9M21 or previous periods. Therefore, the revised annual numbers do not match the available quarterly statistic...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai & Oman budgets, Bahrain Q3 GDP, record Covid cases
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...

Politics will drive economic performance in 2022
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is scheduled for October or November of this year. This makes 2022 an especially important year politically for the Beijing leadership, making it unlikely that they will tolerate a poor econ...

Kazakhstan: uneasy calm returns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 7 the president said that order has largely returned. Russian troops have been deployed there at Kazakhstan's request. The government announced that 26 armed criminals have been killed. Roughly 2,300 people have been arrested. About 2,000 people have been injured. President Tokayev sai...

A strong RMB into 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Jan 2022

China’s yuan has strengthened steadily for much of 2021. Capital inflows remain strong, while exports have maintained relative strength. This is likely to continue in 2022. For 2022, China’s RMB policy will confront a number of challenges. First is the outlook for exports, particularly to the ...

Dozens killed in Kazakhstan as Russia airlifts troops in
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

On January 6 officials reported that scores of people had been shot dead by the police in Almaty. The president said on January 5 that terrorist gangs had taken over part of the city and the airport. The airport has since been retaken by the authorities. The government says that at least 13 polic...

First time since late November: no rate hike at today's 1-week deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The 1-week deposit rate, which currently plays the role of the effective sterilisation rate, remained unchanged at 4% at today's tender.This is very telling. In late November, when the sterilisation rate was separated from the base rate again, the MNB said that its decisions to set the 1-week dep...

Covid's 4th wave is over, but Omicron is coming through the gates
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

There is good news and bad news once again. The former is that daily new cases, hospitalisations, patients in serious condition, virus test hit ratios have all fallen back substantially from the heights of the local 4th wave, seen in November. The latter is that there is no peace on the Covid fro...

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