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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth seems to pick up, but differences between the estimates by INEC and the MEF are large
PANAMA · Report · 26 Nov 2021

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) grew 18% in September compared with the same month of 2020, according to a preliminary (and revisable) information from INEC. Mining, construction (especially public works), retail, the Colon Free Zone, telecommunications, seaports, Panama Canal tolls, p...

Zelensky claims Akhmetov involved in coup d’etat
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Nov 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gathered journalists for a press conference today. He was trying to address a series of scandals his administration has been suffering over the last several weeks, which involve the release of Bellingcat investigation on so-called Wagnergate (failed operation of Ukra...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid variant knocks oil, MBZ visits Turkey, Kuwait fiscal data to October
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Nov 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices took a hit, more from the new Covid variant than the US strategic reserves release plan. * Gulf states may be split on whether to pause the taper at next week's OPEC+ meeting. * A $15bn Aramco investment into ...

Webinar replay: Chile post election briefing
CHILE · Report · 26 Nov 2021

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of Dr. Robert Funk discussing the impact and implications of Chile's November 2021 elections.

An agreement on the Precatórios PEC still has not been reached, the STF began analyzing the constitutionality of the sanitation law, and the Auxílio Brasil MP expires on December 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2021

The text of the Precatórios PEC may need to be changed to obtain the necessary votes. A group of seven parties is mobilizing to propose an alternative text to the one approved in the House. The vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee is scheduled for Tuesday. As expected, the analysis of t...

52 die in Russian coal mine disaster
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2021

On November 25 an accident at Listvyazhnaya Mine in Kemerovo Region occurred. Smoke filled the mine and killed the miners. The rescue effort was unavailing and 6 of the dead were rescuers. Managers at the mine have been arrested on suspicion of non-adherence to safety regulations. There were 285 ...

Tax reform approval still not secured
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

After an incomplete second debate of the tax reform, the government still does not have the necessary 70 votes for its approval. Pachakutik (27 votes), Izquierda Democratica (17 votes), BAN (25 votes) could approve the tax reform if their suggested modifications are taken into consideration.And e...

​Social unrest springs up amidst talk of Emergency Law
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021 · 1 response

The massive depreciation and volatility of TL seem to have caused new supply bottlenecks in the economy, as well as triggering a steady flow of price hikes. Turks seem to have finally gotten tired of the high cost of living, with first wild-cat protests springing up Tuesday night. Slightly larger...

A Thanksgiving Day gift from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

The MNB has set its fixed interest rate for this week's 1-week deposit tender at 2.9% today. This represents another 40 bps hike from last week, and a total 110 bps increase in the effective sterilisation rate, including all three steps carried out over the last nine days. By this step, the MNB i...

China and Russia close to a military alliance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

On November 24 it was announced that Beijing and Moscow will enhance collaboration in patrolling the Asia-Pacific Region. The Russian Defense Minister complained about increasing US Air Force activity and presence on Russia's borders.On November 23 Defense Minister Shoigu said that he had agreed ...

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic raised the monetary policy interest rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Given the persistence of inflationary pressures beyond what was expected, the Central Bank today decided to raise the monetary policy rate from 3% to 3.5%, annually. With the decision, the interest rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) also increases from 3.5% to 4.0%, ...

Decent rate of industrial growth in October amid high inflation and decelerating credit growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Industrial performance was good enough in October. Rosstat reported that industrial production was up y-o-y by 7.1% in October and 5.0% in 10M21. Seasonally and calendar adjusted by Rosstat m-o-m growth was positive (0.8%). The mining sector grew y-o-y by 10.9% and 3.7% over the same periods, whi...

AMLO decides to strengthen his power over Banxico
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Facts: The President withdrew former Ministry of Finance's nomination to preside over Banxico’s Board and today he proposed Victoria Martínez, the current undersecretary at the Ministry of Finance in charge of the spending division, for the post. No doubt she will be approved by the Senate before...

The rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should submit his report today, the STF should begin analyzing the constitutionality of the sanitation law, and the PL confirmed President Bolsonaro’s affiliation with the party
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2021

The vote on the text of the Precatórios PEC should take place in the CCJ next Tuesday, and voting in the Plenary should be held on December 1 or 2. We believe the PEC can receive up to 54 votes in favor – even if all the Podemos senators (9 senators) vote against the proposal. There are four case...

US and Russian generals speak on phone to cool tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

On November 23 the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Russian Chief of General Staff spoke about security issues. The US said the discussion was about de-confliction. The US is concerned about the build-up of Russian forces near Ukraine. Russia says this is a drill. There are analysts ...

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