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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

NATO-Russia talks come to nought
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2022

On January 12 the talks on Ukraine did not reach an agreement. NATO refused to rule out NATO membership. Both sides agreed to continue negotiating.Moscow wanted limits on the numbers of NATO troops deployed in Eastern Europe. NATO has not agreed to such a measure since the Cold War. Russia is off...

CSTO begins withdrawal from Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2022

On January 11 President Tokayev announced that the allied troops are pulling out of the country. The pullout is due to be completed by January 21. It is a measure of how self-assured Tokayev is that he himself announced the withdrawal. He addressed parliament on the matter.On January 12 Tokayev v...

The Banco Genial/Quaest poll should be published today, those who intend to run for elective office must step down from their positions by April 2, and after meeting with Roberto Campos Neto, Sinal threatens to strike for an indefinite period of time
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jan 2022

The Banco Genial/Quaest poll interviewed 2,000 voters between January 6-9, and two other polls should be published this week, one on Thursday and another on Friday. The likelihood is for them to continue to reflect the polarization between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula. According to President Bolsonaro...

US-Russia talks lead to nothing but more talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

On January 10 negotiations in Geneva lasted 7 hours. There was no agreement but both sides said they would continue dialogue with a view to achieving detente. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister promised the US that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. Washington reacted with skepticism and ...

Kazakhstan returns to normal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 10 shops were open and people were on the streets of Almaty. It was a day of mourning for the dead. Public transport was functioning.The government blamed terrorists and said many were foreign. 6,000 people have been arrested. Many are guestworkers from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The...

Israeli institutions reduce FX exposure sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

Israeli savings institutions (with over 0.5 trillion USD under management) have been gradually selling FX all year as higher equity valuations abroad have forced them to sell FX (by derivatives) in order to avoid increasing their FX exposure. Institutions were net FX sellers of 21bn USD through O...

The fiscal deficit reaches 4.5% GDP in 2021, close to half of expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

The fiscal deficit in 2021 reached 4.5% GDP, close to half the initial estimates at the beginning of the year (expectations of over 8%). Total fiscal revenues increased by 30% y/y (and by 19% compared to 2019) on the back of capital gains taxation of the hi-tech sector, strong real estate activit...

The issue involving public servants’ salary raises is affecting the government’s ratings, Geraldo Alckmin was invited to join Soledariedade, and Sergio Moro attacks Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2022

Bolsonaro said this weekend that the salary raises he promised for the police was not a guarantee. The statement took federal law enforcement officials by surprise. The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, returned from vacation, and his mission is to resolve this issue. If Bolsonaro backs down...

Central government 2021 cash deficit a bit lower than predicted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

Preliminary actuals show that the central government's cash deficit for 2021 ended up at HUF5102bn or 9.5% of GDP. This was slightly lower than the HUF5196bn annual deficit that the Finance Ministry predicted in its late-December forecast. The Ministry wrote in its announcement of the actual figu...

Consumer inflation results with 10.0% ytd in 2021, disinflation is on track
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

Consumer inflation ended the year with 10.0% ytd or 9.4% y/y. The result is in the middle between the NBU forecast (9.6% ytd or 9.3% y/y) and our own estimate (+10.3% ytd or +9.4% y/y). Food prices (+12.7% ytd) and transportation costs (+11.1% ytd) are responsible for 2/3 of consumer inflation th...

A difficult start to the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

Central Bank employees meet with the president of the bank, Roberto Campos Neto, to discuss salary raises. The results of three polls on the presidential election are expected to be published. On Tuesday, the IBGE announces the 2021 accumulated inflation index (IPCA). This week's Talking Point...

The Risk of Recession in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In a recent interview, Paulo Pichetti, a member of CODACE, stated there is no way to classify the small declines of GDP in the second (-0.4%) and third (-0.1%) quarters of 2021 as a recession. Among the reasons, he mentioned the noise introduced in the seasonal patterns (not yet captured by the r...

2021 exceeded expectations, but structural reforms loom
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 Jan 2022

Performance in 2021 exceeded expectations in terms of economic growth, the exchange rate and accumulation of international reserves. The same was not true, though, for inflation, which failed to stay within the target range, while the NFPS deficit ended at around 3% of GDP, similar to the level c...

Three polls will be published this week, the public servants issue remains, and the government may make a decision on the debt refinancing program for micro and small businesses and individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

On Wednesday, the Banco Genial/Quaest Pesquisas poll results should be released. On Thursday, the Exame Magazine/Instituto Ideia poll results and on Friday, the XP/Ipespe poll results should also be released. The polls are expected to show that the polarization between former President Lula (PT) ...

Politics: In 2022 AMLO looks to consolidate his 4T and ensure it endures beyond 2024
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jan 2022

With the 2024 elections just two years away, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is increasingly focused on ensuring his legacy through consolidating his Fourth Transformation (4T) project. The next battle is over the presidential recall referendum, pushed not by voters discontented with AMLO’s...

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