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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation in Russia at 8.1%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

On November 18 the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat) said that inflation in October 2021 was at its highest level since 2015. The Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates several times in a failed attempt to curb this. The key rate is 7.5% and is surely going to rise. It is anticipated ...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

The odds have practically fallen to zero following the President’s non-cryptic remark last week that a presidential candidate uses cocaine. Without naming Marcos (popularly called by his nickname “Bongbong” and shortened to “BBM”), he described the candidate as rich but said that he was a “weak l...

Shekel appreciation continues; expected to moderate inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2021

GDP data in Q3 was “decent” GDP growth reached 2.4%, but was up 3.5% excluding taxes on imports. Private consumption excluding durables increased by 5.1%. Investments improved, both residential and non-residential. Exports disappointed Annual GDP growth in 2021 will mostly come in closer to 6.5% ...

Georgian ex-president close to death on hunger strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2021

Mikheil Saakashvili has been refusing to eat for 50 days. He is in a prison hospital. A doctor recommended that the ex-president be moved to an ordinary hospital. Saakashvili has been losing consciousness. Even if he ends his hunger strike now he may have sustained permanent neurological damage.S...

A first take on an unprecedented experiment
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

We address three FAQs on the current market turmoil. Take this as a first, but relatively comprehensive take at a quickly evolving situation. The questions are: Why is Ankara doing this? Where do we go from here? How is this different from the 2018 Pastor episode?

13 soldiers killed in Azerbaijan-Armenian fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2021

On November 19 Yerevan announced 6 fatalities had been sustained in skirmishes on the ceasefire line, and 13 more taken prisoner. The Azerbaijanis say 7 of their men were killed. Most of the fighting took place on November 16. This is the worst fighting since the 2020 war. Both sides have now agr...

Monetary tightening accelerated in November
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Nov 2021

The 4th domestic wave of Covid continues to rise rapidly. Daily new infections and deaths exceed those in the 2nd wave of late 2020, and Hungary has one of the highest R0 globally. With the current speed of virus spreading, reaching the limits of hospital capacity could be only a few weeks away. ...

​The risks of March
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Nov 2021

Overall economic activity hit during this year’s national strike has regained its momentum and, since June, is exceeding 2019 pre-crisis levels. Tertiary activities, which could be broadly understood as aggregating services, is the driving force in the economy right now. In primary activities, ag...

Ecuador: Open for business
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Nov 2021

Around 300 business national and international business people gathered last Thursday to learn about the investment opportunities in Ecuador, that according to President Lasso sum $30b over four years. Areas where the Republic has the most important portfolio of projects are hydrocarbons, mining...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s Crown Prince will oversee government formation, QCB governor appointed, Saudi floating city envisaged
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Nov 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 on Covid concerns and the potential release of strategic reserves. However, continued production problems for some OPEC members is more bullish for 2022 prices. * Saudi Arabia naturalized new citizens...

Putin says that the West is causing tension as he tests missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2021

On November 18 Putin said that the West is aggravating the Ukrainian conflict. The US and its allies have held military exercises in the Black Sea and flown warplanes over Ukraine. Ukraine has used Turkish-made drones to destroy rebel artillery.Ukraine and Western countries have said that Russia ...

The Precatórios PEC continues to dominate the agenda in the Senate, the rapporteur of the PEC should submit his report on the text next week, and the PSDB will select its presidential candidate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2021

The rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC, Senator Fernando Bezerra, is looking into to dividing the proposal as a way to incorporate the senators' suggestions. Anything that is subject to change in the original proposal will be included in a new text and analyzed by the senators. The goal is to vote...

The South African Reserve Bank starts policy normalization
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Nov 2021

As we had anticipated, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.5% to 3.75% during its final scheduled meeting of the year. As a result, the prime lending rate also increased from 7% to 7.25%. P...

Jamaica decisively joins the emerging market interest rate raising cycle
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 18 Nov 2021 · 3 responses

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) met on November 11 and 12 and announced its decision to raise its policy interest rate on November 16, effective November 17, by 50 basis points to 2% per annum, including other measures to contain Jamaica dollar liquidity expansion...

Russia's economy recovering strongly
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2021

On November 17 data for Q3 2021 published. The country is getting over coronavirus economically even though the number of deaths is climbing despite a falling caseload. GDP grew 4.3% in Q3 compared to the same period in 2020. Transport, retail and mining grew particularly strongly. Q2 also saw gr...

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