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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The State Capture Zondo Commission Report is out- finally
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The year began with a bang on the South Africa's political economy stage. This is a critical year for SA's medium term political outlook as the ANC is heading for its mid-term elective congress in December 2022 at which the next leadership of the Party will be elected, and by implication the next...

​The Palace strikes back
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

It has become cliché to say so, but tensions in politics escalated further, as Erdogan threatened protestors with violence, while press accounts report an indictment against CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. These strikes are Erdogan’s last bullets in the area of intimidating the o...

Kazakhstan appoints new PM as protests turn violent
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 Alikhan Smailov became Prime Minister. He is 49 years old, a native Kazakh and he was born in Almaty. Smailov served as Finance Minister before being First Deputy Prime Minister. He is a member of the ruling party: Nur Otan (Light of the Fatherland). Smailov is seen as a safe pair of...

Kazakh Cabinet resigns in a bid to appease protesters
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet resigned. Demonstrations have erupted in a dozen cities due to an eye watering Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) price hike. There have been over 200 arrests. LNG is used to run vehicles in the western part of the country. Protesters are irate that a ...

Kazakhstan roiled by fuel protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

On January 2 protests broke out in Mangystau over the brupt rise in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Demonstrators demanded lower prices and for the government to resign. People have spent all night on squares in Zhanaozen and Aktau. There were up to 6,000 protesters in Aktau which is un...

Cumulative Q1-Q3 2021 fiscal deficit reported at 4.1% of GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

At first glance, this sounds as good news. The corresponding-period figure for 2020 was 4.8%, so the deficit ratio fell moderately. And we are talking about the Eurostat-methodology, accrual terms data for the whole government sector, that is the single most important fiscal macro indicator. So i...

​2022 starter kit for Turkish Politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

While we were away, “business as usual” prevailed in Turkish politics.For those who really need a starter kit, “business” is discretionary government running amok, uncertainty rising by the day, as well as unbearable static electricity in the air. It sounds disingenuous to write a Market Brief, t...

Biden assures Ukraine of unstinting support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 2 the US President spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart by phone. Biden said that the United States will react strongly if there is a Russian invasion. He repeated that the US supports Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity. Biden reminded Zelensky that the Minsk Agreement must...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: seeking points of no return
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jan 2022

As the restrictions imposed by the Russian authorities in 2021 to counter the pandemic were moderate, selective, and short-lived, the country’s economic performance turned out to be better than expected. It now looks as though the 2021 GDP growth well exceeded 4.0%. Economic activity looked stron...

Low inflation in Israel allows the BoI to be patient
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jan 2022

1. The BoI sees inflation under control and stresses the luxury of being patient with monetary tightening, despite strong activity and employment growth. 2. Hi-tech services exports continue to surge, supportive of shekel appreciation. 3. Private consumption growth has shifted more to...

Despite strong activity and employment growth, the BoI sees low inflation ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2022

The policy rate statement today had a slightly more hawkish tone as data released since the previous rate decision has been rather robust, with strong employment growth in November (92k new employees) and accelerating activity. and private consumption. On the other hand, the possible downside ris...

​A big surge in inflation, more to come
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 13.6%, m/m, in December, with 12-month CPI inflation hence finishing the year at 36.1%, up from 21.3% in November. It is worth highlighting that this is the highest consumer price inflation number since September 2002, and the largest miss (of t...

Difficulties in the recovery
INDIA · Report · 03 Jan 2022

We treat the best days of January 2021 as the benchmark of what was seen in the nature of a rapid recovery after the lockdown of March and April 2020. In late December 2021, the economy was behind those values in important aspects. The pace of recovery has not been good in recent months, particul...

OMAN: 2022 budget looks promising, despite some slippage in consolidation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Oman’s budget was released on Sunday, building on headline numbers announced a few weeks ago, along with more details of the preliminary 2021 outturn. Broadly speaking, the 2021 results and the 2022 budget show the government’s continued seriousness about fiscal consolidation, even after the unex...

New year, new wave (Omicron watch)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

The new year has started on a sour note for the tens of thousands newly sickened by the coronavirus. Although limited sampling has meant that the Omicron variant has been detected in only a few of the local cases so far, it is reasonable to assume that the sudden multiplication of cases since Chr...

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