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President Bolsonaro should sanction the LDO, Paulo Guedes discusses Income Tax Reform, and Bolsonaro files a lawsuit against the STF’s ability to launch an investigation against him
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro will likely veto the increase of the electoral fund that was approved by Congress in the LDO in July. Paulo Guedes will give an interview at 5 p.m. on José Márcio Camargo’s YouTube channel. The lawsuit submitted by Bolsonaro is a more cautious approach to the conflict than the impeachme...

​GULF WEEKLY: EDO raises $2.5bn loan, Bahrain’s H1 fiscal, Kuwait plans spending cuts, Turkey-UAE meeting
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE granted refugee status to the Afghan president, and Qatar was a focal point for evacuations and Taliban talks. * Inflation rose to multi-year highs in July in several states but in Saudi it dropped sharply, a year ...

​Delta watch 4 (Restrictions relaxed… somewhat)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Aug 2021

Likely swayed by economic managers’ concerns, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) relaxed mobility restrictions in Metro Manila, allowing the nation’s capital to transition from enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ). Earlier in the week, after rumors ...

Announcement of constitutional reform to establish an independent Office of the Attorney General
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Aug 2021

President Luis Abinader, in a speech to the Nation on the occasion of the first year of his mandate, announced that during this year he will be calling for a constitutional reform with the purpose of consolidating the independence of the Office of the Attorney General, one of his main campaign pr...

Is high popularity a buffer against social unrest?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2021

Approximately 80% of Ecuadorians approve of President Lasso’s government in the first 90 days of his administration, and his popularity increased slightly between June and August 6, from 71.4% to 73.5%, according to CEDATOS. Also, his credibility is up from 61.7% to 63.2% in this period. But whil...

Revisions to short-term external debt data
TURKEY · Report · 19 Aug 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT, as signaled earlier (link here), revised gross short-term external debt; net international investment position (NIIP), and corporate sector net F/X position data today. The key revision on the (gross) short-term external debt side concerns a reduction in trade (import) credits by around...

Russian macro: increased mortgages, investment in real estate to add up to 0.5% to GDP growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2021

Statistics suggests that Russians continued to weather their own financial storms during the pandemic quite successfully (on average). Household accounts with banks have been growing steadily since 2015, and the pandemic had little effect on this trend, although deposits have become less attracti...

The income tax bill should be put to a vote in about two weeks, the meeting between Fux and Pacheco was positive, and center parties meet in Brasilia to discuss the 2022 presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2021

The rapporteur of the income tax bill, Deputy Celso Sabino, should make further changes to his report to reduce resistance. The opposition is hoping to change the bill that alters the way teachers’ salaries are calculated. Bolsonaro may announce new developments today on his impeachment requests ...

Good news and more good news: GDP, the fiscal deficit and the debt ratio
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2021

Hungary and some of its neighbors are still holding out as an island of peace in the big sea of Covid waves all around Europe. In this regard, it seems to be an advantage that the country is neither a transportation hub nor a major destination for tourists, and that international travel remains s...

Russia investigating supermarket price fixing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2021

On August 17 the competition authorities began to look into whether the major chains have formed a price cartel. The anti-monopoly service is probing X5 Group, which includes Pyaterochka and Perekrostok. Magnit and Letna are also under investigation.The aim is to forfend undue food price rises. T...

Job vacancies spike, consumer confidence weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Aug 2021

The number of job vacancies continues to rise, reaching 134k (sa) in July, from 129k in June and 122k in May. The pre-Covid level was around 96k. This is an indicator of excess demand for labor from the private sector, relative to the supply. This upward print in July is somewhat surprising in li...

Life in the “post” country
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Aug 2021

Has economic activity returned to 2019 levels? Based on the data, the answer is a qualified “yes.” The index for economic activity rebounded in H1 2021, after falling around 7.8% in 2020, with services mainly saving the day. If social unrest doesn’t resurface with enough intensity to damage econo...

Government has practically ready proposal for tax reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 18 Aug 2021

The Minister of Economy, Planning and Development, Miguel Ceara Hatton, announced that the Government's proposal on tax reform is practically ready. It is expected that President Abinader will announce in the next few days the start of the discussion process for said proposal.According to the min...

The income tax bill has been postponed once again, Dep. Arthur Maia should submit his report on the Administrative Reform proposal next week, and Luiz Fux and Rodrigo Pacheco should meet to diffuse the tesion between the branches of government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2021

Ricardo Barros called for the income tax bill to be postponed in order to obtain the necessary votes for its approval. The income tax agenda may start to interefere with the Administrative Reform agenda. The Federal Audit Court (TCU) will review the 5G auction notice and there may be strikes orga...

Unrest in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2021

On August 16 the mayor of a Ukrainian city was shot dead. The mayor was a member of Opposition Platform for Life which is pro-Moscow. He was Mayor of Kryviy Rih which is where President Zelensky was born. The president said he is supervising the murder investigation.On August 14 there were angry ...

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