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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Turkey Covid Watch - September 6, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2021

Cases have fluctuated around a 20K levels over the past two weeks. Deaths are rather high compared to cases, and the quality of the case data is somewhat in doubt.

MTP 2022-24: Some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2021

The government released the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2022-24 last night. On a symbolic note, the document’s old name has been restored, in what looks like an attempt to break with the two awful years of economic management under the “New Economy Programs”. A detailed table with basic macr...

​Delta watch 5 (A new experiment)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2021

Even with daily infections on a worrisome uptrend, government today decided to ease restrictions in Metro Manila, lowering the quarantine status from modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ) to general community quarantine (GCQ) beginning Wednesday. The decision follows a policy of relying m...

A rough start for the fall in foreign relations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2021

Relations between Hungary and the Western world have not been especially friendly in recent times. Yet it quite rarely happens that the potential negative consequences could be as tangible and significant as in this fall: the government has to strike a difficult deal, against massive headwinds, w...

Autumn blues
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2021

The summer should have been a perfect opportunity for President Erdogan --and his AKP-MHP or the Republic Alliance-- to recover some lost ground in the polls. However, clumsy governance, detachment from voter concerns, and a string of natural disasters prevented the rebound. As the summer end...

Russian tech exports nearly double since 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2021

On September 1 the Moscow Higher School of Economics released data showing that Russia exported USD 4.5 billion of tech goods and services in 2020 and 2019. In 2018 such exports were only USD 1.4 billion.Russia is eager to avoid importing tech wherever possible. This is to reduce the impact of an...

Gazprom profits up in Q2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2021

On August 30 the gas giant announced that its Q2 earnings were more than 200% higher YoY. The price for natural gas has risen sharply. Net profit was USD 7 billion. The state-controlled company is also very optimistic about Q3 results when they come in. In April and June 2021 results were very go...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ maintains taper, Baghdad summit held, Saudi-Omani investments mooted
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its 400k b/d monthly taper, and Brent crude has rebounded to $73. * The Saudi and Iran foreign ministers participated in the Baghdad summit, and a fourth round of bilateral talks are planned. * Dubai’s ru...

Only one edit to the income tax bill was approved, President Bolsonaro will submit an ADO today against the governors’ proportional ICMS tax rate, and the government issues a provisional measure to help energy distributors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2021

The income tax bill will now be sent to the Senate for further analysis. The government faces some issues in the Senate, so the income tax bill may be difficult to pass. President Bolsonaro is arguing that the Constitution says that the ICMS tax rate must be the same throughout the nation and can...

August Inflation: No justification for a cut there, but who knows
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2021

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1.1%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month CPI-rate increasing further to 19.25%, from 18.95% in July. Producer prices (domestic) increased by 2.8% in the month, m/m, taking the 12-month rate further up to 45.5%, from 44.9% in the previous month (Graph ...

Major Russian bank (VTB) buying another
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

On September 2 it was reported that VTB (Russia's second largest bank) is due to buy Pochta Bank by the end of 2021. VTB was the majority shareholder in Pochta Bank until 2017. It gave up control as a result of sanctions. Thereafter VTB and Pochta Rossiya (the postal service) had 50% (minus) of t...

The House approves the income tax bill, the Senate rejects Provisional Measure 1045, and President Bolsonaro should sanction the compulsory licenses bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2021

Deputy Celso Sabino’s income tax bill report provides for a 7% reduction in the corporate tax rate and a 1% reduction in the CSLL. It also provides for a 20% tax on profits and dividends for companies that make more than R$ 4.8 million. The House should vote on the new Electoral Code today. The b...

Joint statement on strategic partnership sounds good
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy finally met US president Joe Biden. Ukrainian authorities have been striving to get the meeting for so long that the very fact of the talk is being presented as a big success. The President's Office, predictably, broadcast multiple important agreements the Ukrainian ...

​Decelerating growth in 3Q21 prompts further moderation in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade (retail and wholesale combined) was up y-o-y by 6.8% and 6.7% in July and 7M21. Output in the freight transportation sector was up by 9.1% and 5.7% over the same period. Retai...

The fiscal outlook improves as Gulf states show expenditure constraint in H1 and oil revenue trends up
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2021 · 1 response

* H1 fiscal balances ranged from a -7.8% of GDP deficit for Oman to a 1.3% surplus for Qatar. * Spending is down across all four states that have reported H1 fiscal data. * We see Qatar’s surplus expanding to 2.2% of GDP for 2021 as a whole. * We forecast a Saudi deficit of -0.7% of GDP, more ...

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