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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic policy and growth: short-term problems – no excuse to ignore long-term challenges
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2020

Rosstat reported that Russian industry was down by 2.9% in 9M20 and by 5.0%y-o-y in September. Manufacturing was flat y-o-y in 9M20 and down by 1.6% in September, while mining posted a 10.0% and 6.5% y-o-y contraction in 9M20 and in September alone, respectively. The results do not look too bad, ...

4.9% Q3 growth, with surging exports
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2020

GDP was up 4.9% y/y in Q3, a rise of 1.7 pps from Q2, but still 1.1 pps lower than in Q3 2019. Industrial output was up 5.8% y/y in Q3, up 1.4 pps from Q2, and up 0.8 pps from Q3 2019. Investment was up 8.8% y/y, up 5 pps from Q2, and up 4.1 pps from Q3 2019, with investment in manufacturing ...

Inflation report: gradualism to continue until it can't
TURKEY · Report · 28 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The CBRT has released this year's fourth and final Inflation Report according to which the Bank increased its yearend inflation forecast by a sizeable 3.2 percentage points, from 8.9% to 12.1%, which is higher than both the New Economic Program (NEP) forecast of 10.5% (released just about a month...

Bearing up (with updates to Tables 1 and 2)
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2020

Costa Rica is caught in political confrontations over the urgent task of restoring fiscal sustainability in order to avoid a financial crisis. The government’s decision to discard the announced proposal for a program with IMF has been October’s most noteworthy event. The failure came from the bia...

Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire fails
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

On October 28 both countries have accused each other of numerous ceasefire violations and killing dozens of civilians. Iran had sent more troops to its border with the two countries. The Iranians are officially neutral but lean towards Armenia.Azerbaijani military equipment is mostly a generation...

Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 26, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Oct 2020

The weakness we have been seeing in the consumer sector continues, but it may be flattening out. There is a slight downward trend in traffic congestion, auto sales and other sectors, but it is very mild. The strength remains in the industrial/infrastructure area, but the fact that consumers appea...

New forecast data in from finance minister Varga
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

Finance minister Mihály Varga spoke publicly on three different occasions in recent days, including two conferences and his annual hearing by parliament's budget committee. What came out of his statements as really new was two pieces of forecast data. He now expects GDP growth at -6.4% this year ...

Russian interest rate kept at 4.25%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

On October 23 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced they key rate is remaining steady. This was widely expected. Coronavirus, the US election and the possibility of sanctions all contributed to this.Inflation is 3.8% which is a rise. It will likely be 4% by the end of 2020 which is the CBR t...

Constitutional court cancels e-declarations, undermining anti-corruption vertical
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

More trash has arrived from Ukrainian judicial system over the last few days. Yesterday, on October 27th, the Constitutional court canceled provision of Criminal Code, which presumes responsibility for incorrect information in e-declarations, according to media. This move effectively destroys the...

New Russian property company launching on the stock market
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

Samolet is a property development company that is about to launch on the Moscow Bourse.There are several public offerings there about to launch by the end of 2020. Samolet was founded in 2012 and has been one of the fastest growing companies this decade. The Samolet's IPO might value it at USD 86...

Russia to tighten abortion laws
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

On October 27 Putin said that the government must do more to reduce the abortion rate. This is not primarily for moral reasons. Putin is worried about a declining population. Putin published a plan calling for medical and psychological support to persude women to continue their pregnancies. Prime...

Russia reintroduces coronavirus restrictions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

On October 26 Russia ordered people to wear masks on public transport, parking lots and elevators. The government recommends that bars and restaurants close by 11 but it is up to region whether or not to make this mandatory.Coronavirus is surging and hospitals are struggling. The government despe...

​As TL heads for a crash, does Erdogan have a strategy?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

I’m writing this Market Brief at noon, when dollar/TL pair shot up to 8.15. I can’t prove it, but I fear most of the pressure now comes from domestic savers, who may be cashing their TLs for hard currency at exchange bureaus, or even withdrawing their FX deposits. The tale of the tape is simple. ...

Good news, lingering doubts
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

Amidst a succession of GDP growth downgrades, most recently by the IMF,[1] we are watching three developments this month that signal better prospects heading into 2021.Remittances have surprised on the upside. Monies sent home have expectedly declined but not as much as anticipated. After plummet...

UAE: Sharjah and RAK downgraded by S&P
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Oct 2020

* The downgrades were to record lows of A- (RAK) and BBB- (Sharjah). * The Covid crisis has harmed the activity they rely on to generate fees and tax revenue. * RAK runs surpluses and has more liquid assets than debt. * Sharjah has a large structural deficit relative to its revenue and s...

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