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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
July CPI-inflation came out slightly below expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021
The headline rate was 0.5% mom, 4.6% yoy, just slightly below the 4.7% yoy median of analyst forecasts (Portfolio.hu survey) and more significantly below our own 4.9% yoy forecast. The better than expected performance came from non-fuel items, where the monthly price increase fell to 3.8% yoy fro...
Campaign season spending propels inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2021
In July, the rate of inflation doubled to 18 percent from its June 9 percent. We had forecast only 11 percent, having failed to give due weight to the PSUV primary elections. Campaigning sparked increases in public expenditure, which in turn boosted the demand for dollars. The central bank reacte...
2Q GDP slips sequentially due to lockdown
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021
Government reported today that 2Q GDP shrank 1.3% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter (qoq) basis. The losses reflect tighter restrictions to activity that were imposed starting late March following an unexpected outbreak in covid-19 infections and were only gradually relaxed over May and...
Israeli institutions continue to sell FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021
Israeli institutions continue to sell FX In June, Israeli savings institutions (managing over 450bn USD) were net sellers of FX of 3.9bn USD and 16bn YTD. In June, institutions sold assets abroad of 1.1bn and increased their FX hedge position by 2.8bn. Higher equity market valuations abroad have ...
Economics: Pemex results deliver mixed figures but bad news in general
MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021
Pemex’s financial results for the second quarter of 2021 partially benefited from a very low comparison base given that the first wave of Covid 19 infections during the second quarter of 2020 seriously affected demand and prices for hydrocarbon value-chain products, and this came together with Me...
Proposal for the privatization of the Correios and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021
The government may submit the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and the Bolsa Família provisional measure to Congress. The House will try to vote on the income tax bill and the leaders should discuss the paper ballot PEC. The New Refis will be analyzed in the House. T...
Inflation and Fiscal Risk at Center Stage
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021
Since (belatedly) starting the monetary tightening cycle, the Central Bank has been revealing greater concern over economic recovery than growth of inflation. Even with the steady increase of the diffusion index and all the core rates, after three increases of 75 basis points the SELIC rate was s...
Turkey Covid Watch - August 9, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2021
After several weeks of rapid increase, case growth seems to be slowing, giving rise to hope that the virus is facing immunity within the population against the prevailing variant. The latter may not yet be the Delta variant, however, as the absence of data is hampering rigorous analysis. Inequali...
Banks to benefit from decelerating inflation amid rising interest rates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
According to Rosstat, m-o-m inflation reached in July 0.31%, which was a bit lower than in July 2020 (0.35%). Inflation y-o-y moved to 6.46% in July, which is a bit lower than a month ago. A few days earlier, Rosstat published its flash estimate of the consumer price change for seven days ending ...
A busy week in Congress: the bill on income tax, electoral reform and the paper ballot system may be put to a vote this week, and Dep. Ricardo Barros testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021
The paper ballot PEC may be taken to the plenary for a vote if there is an agreement between leaders. The Senate receives the bill that allows for the privatization of the Correios following its approval in the House. The government may submit to Congress the PEC on the court-ordered payments iss...
Politics: Low turnout for popular consultation, a setback for AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021
Mexico’s first experience with an officially held popular consultation was marked by very low voter turnout on August 1. Promoted by President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Morena, the question that was initially to be put to voters was whether the past six presidents should be investigated and...
South Africa’s economy amid unrest, Cabinet changes and a mining sector boom
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Aug 2021
South Africa’s growth: South Africa’s economy, which is once again being adversely impacted by another round of more stringent lockdowns on account of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, encountered another setback in July. This was in the form of the civil unrest that took place at the beginn...
FX intervention slows as the economy recovers
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Aug 2021
1. The fiscal deficit declined sharply in July to 9.3% of GDP (LTM) from 10.1% last month. 2. The Bank of Israel reduced FX intervention sharply in July, possibly due to the economic recovery. 3. Disposable income growth remains modest, and fairly much in line with productivity growth.
Expect CPI-inflation to fall below 5% in July, mainly on a favourable base effect
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
KSH is set to release its July CPI-inflation report early tomorrow. The median analyst expectation (by Portfolio.hu) is 4.7% yoy, down from 5.3% in June and 5.1% yoy in the preceding two months. We expect 4.9% yoy. The analyst median implies 0.5% monthly inflation, our forecast comes from 0.7% mo...
Belarusian Olympic athlete given asylum in Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
On August 1 Krystina Timanovskaya, a female athlete, publicly denounced her coaches in Tokyo. She was then ordered to return to Belarus immediately. She was granted asylum by the Polish Embassy and put on a flight to Poland. Two coaches who told her to leave the Olympics lost their accreditation ...