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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A clear and imminent danger
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2020

Turkey is in the midst of a deep COVID-19 crisis, which should supersede all other topics in the domestic agenda. On Saturday, the press reported that dozens of private hospitals in Istanbul were to be converted to pandemic care facilities, attesting to the severity of the second wave. We predict...

Turkey continues purchase of Russian missiles despite American objections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2020 · 1 response

On October 23 Turkey confirmed it was still purchasing - and now testing - Russian air defense S 400 systems. The US vigorously protested. Turkey is a NATO member. The Turkes insisted they have the right to buy Russian arms. The US threatened unspecified sanctions. The Turks are confident that NA...

Russia opening new defense office in Serbia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2020

On October 22 it was reported that Russia plans to open a military office in Serbia. Serbia is trying to join the EU but not NATO. Belgrade is amenable to the move but final approval has not yet been granted.Serbia was due to take part in Slavic Brotherhood military exercise in September 2020 alo...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2020

* Russia: The economy is growing slowly but several worries remain. * Local semi-lockdowns in Russia have slowed the resurgence of the pandemic but there is no sense that full lockdown will be reintroduced. * Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for two weeks, and at least 400 peopl...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman cuts issuance to $2bn, Libyan ceasefire, Hariri returns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Oct 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The World Bank published slightly more pessimistic forecasts than the IMF. * Apparent Iranian interference in the US election could complicate sanctions-lifting under Bide...

Russian car prices inflate by up to 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

On October 21 Kommersant published a survey showing that the fall in the RUB has caused car prices to rise between 3% and 15%. Imported cars went up most in price. BMWs, Audis, Volvos and Mercedeses all went up sharply. Lada prices are up 7% . 20% of all car sales are of Ladas.Carmakers do not wa...

How are Chinese banks in the U.S. responding to decoupling?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Oct 2020

U.S.-China relations have put the Chinese banks in an awkward position. They need to maintain their international presence but reduce the risks of exposure to the United States to prepare for the chance of further decoupling between the two countries – even under a Biden administration. To that e...

Covid-19 turning nasty in Europe, Hungary rejects lockdown measures for the time being
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

Here follow two graphs on new Covid-19 daily infection cases, representing 7-day averages (data from Worldometers.info, ECDC and Koronavirus.gov.hu). The first one is for Hungary:The second one shows data for Europe (the whole continent, EU and non-EU, this time, also as 7-day averages):We would ...

EU and Britain sanction Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

On October 22 Brussels and London imposed sanctions on high ranking Russian intellligence officers because of alleged hacking of the Bundestag in 2015. Two men have been forbidden from entering the EU and had their assets frozen. The GRU (military intelligence) unit claimed to be behind the cyber...

Rates remain unchanged while further accommodation disappoints
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

The Bank of Israel announced yesterday that policy rates will remain unchanged at a level of 0.1% as widely expected in the market, although several economists (myself included) envisioned the likelihood of a rate cut to zero.The additional accommodative measures were rather weak in scope. An add...

Russia announces digital currency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Oct 2020

On October 21 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said that a digital ruble will be introduced. This will not be a cryptocurrency as these are outlawed in Russia.CBR thinks that the fast growth of fintech will need a kind of RUB that is more amenable to electronic transders. CBR is not going to set ...

The NBU leaves prime rate at 6%, an increase is possible in 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Oct 2020

Today, the NBU Board again left prime rate unchanged at 6%. Despite September consumer inflation was modest (+0.5% m/m or +2.3% y/y), the Central bank anticipates inflation speed up over the upcoming months. That was the main reason behind the decision. The NBU lowered inflation forecast down to ...

MPC: Back to old ways
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2020

In a surprise move, the Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 150 bps to 14.75% from 13.25%, but left the O/N as well as the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 11.75% and 10.25%, respectively (all simple; see chart). Parenthetically, the Bank put the ...

The First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova has been stripped of her key authorities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko took away from the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova her traditional authority over banking supervision, according to the NBU press-release today. Rozhkova from now will be dealing only with supervision of non-banking institutions. Recall last Friday, o...

Sberbank launching geoanalytics service
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

The bank cum tech firm wants to make money out of its account holders' data. It will analyze data about transactions and the locations these happened at. They are using 2GIS' service. Sberbank bought 2GIS earlier in 2020.Sber will sell this info to companies so the companies know where to set up ...

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