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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

August Inflation: No justification for a cut there, but who knows
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2021

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1.1%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month CPI-rate increasing further to 19.25%, from 18.95% in July. Producer prices (domestic) increased by 2.8% in the month, m/m, taking the 12-month rate further up to 45.5%, from 44.9% in the previous month (Graph ...

Major Russian bank (VTB) buying another
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

On September 2 it was reported that VTB (Russia's second largest bank) is due to buy Pochta Bank by the end of 2021. VTB was the majority shareholder in Pochta Bank until 2017. It gave up control as a result of sanctions. Thereafter VTB and Pochta Rossiya (the postal service) had 50% (minus) of t...

The House approves the income tax bill, the Senate rejects Provisional Measure 1045, and President Bolsonaro should sanction the compulsory licenses bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2021

Deputy Celso Sabino’s income tax bill report provides for a 7% reduction in the corporate tax rate and a 1% reduction in the CSLL. It also provides for a 20% tax on profits and dividends for companies that make more than R$ 4.8 million. The House should vote on the new Electoral Code today. The b...

Joint statement on strategic partnership sounds good
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy finally met US president Joe Biden. Ukrainian authorities have been striving to get the meeting for so long that the very fact of the talk is being presented as a big success. The President's Office, predictably, broadcast multiple important agreements the Ukrainian ...

​Decelerating growth in 3Q21 prompts further moderation in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade (retail and wholesale combined) was up y-o-y by 6.8% and 6.7% in July and 7M21. Output in the freight transportation sector was up by 9.1% and 5.7% over the same period. Retai...

The fiscal outlook improves as Gulf states show expenditure constraint in H1 and oil revenue trends up
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2021 · 1 response

* H1 fiscal balances ranged from a -7.8% of GDP deficit for Oman to a 1.3% surplus for Qatar. * Spending is down across all four states that have reported H1 fiscal data. * We see Qatar’s surplus expanding to 2.2% of GDP for 2021 as a whole. * We forecast a Saudi deficit of -0.7% of GDP, more ...

US attempts to reaffirm support for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2021

On August 31 Washington DC announced up to USD 60 million in military assistance for Ukraine. The United States claimed that Russian military activity in Eastern Ukraine has intensified in recent days and cited mortar attacks as evidence thereof.Javelin anti-tank missiles are among the hardware s...

Growth slows in Q2, but remains positive
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2021

Turkey's GDP increased by 21.7% in the second quarter of the year, over the same period of last year, broadly in line with expectations. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, growth slowed to 0.9%, q/q, from 2.2% (revised up from 1.7%) in the first quarter (Graph 1), suggesting that muc...

Energy fees to increase by 49.63% due to the water crisis, the emergency aid program may be prolonged if the Auxílio Brasil program does not begin in November, and the government is optimistic about the Federal Budget
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2021

The government may reward those who decrease their energy consumption by 10-20%. A provisional measure on the railway legal framework was poorly received by the Senate; some are calling for Pacheco to return it to the government. Pacheco has confirmed the possibility of prolonging the emergency a...

Russian digital giant buying Uber Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2021

On August 31 it was announced that Yandex is buying the ride hailing service for USD 1 billion. Yandex and Uber had been cooperating. Yandex also delivers food and has a car sharing service. Yandex Lavka is the grocery delivery arm of the company. Uber has a 33.5% stake in Yandex Lavka and an 18....

Bolsonaro may have to prolong the Emergency Aid program, Arthur Lira is insisting on the income tax bill, and the 2022 Federal Budget should be submitted to Congress today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2021

Every time the Emergency Aid program approaches its end, political pressure builds to prolong it, even though the economic team does not believe that the program should be prolonged. Although governors and mayors still do not support the income tax bill, Lira is trying to reach an agreement with ...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: The roads we take
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2021

With less than three weeks left to the Duma elections, Russia’s political situation remained quiet as no major initiatives were announced either by the government or by its opponents on both flanks. Even though Russia’s daily COVID-19 infections rate steadily declined in August, having fallen to ...

Wage growth was much stronger in June than official data suggested at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2021

Nominal wage growth on a per employee basis was reported by KSH at only 3.5% yoy in June, implying -1.7% yoy for the real-terms number. This was kind of perplexing at first glance, for being unusually low compared to any previous numbers: in H1 total, wage growth was 8.3% yoy nominal and 4% yoy r...

Macro outlook ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Aug 2021

Contrary to former elections, some of the key electoral positions will be defined through the primaries. This is a change from former years, when the primaries were usually mere “national polls”. The composition of the pre-candidates for Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) in the City and Province of B...

Economic activity surges, helped by improvement in vaccination coverage. The 2022 budget proposal comes to the legislature for approval with increasing participation of ACP transfers.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Aug 2021

IMAE for the second quarter showed an increase of 27%: April grew 21.3% year over year; May registered a 34.2% increase, and June, a 24.9% increase. This result is the consequence of a revision of the previously published IMAE figures: for April, growth was revised from 12.1% to 21.3%, and in May...

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