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The tension between the Executive and Judicial branches continues, the income tax bill should be put to a vote today and the auditor of the TCU, Alexandre Figueiredo Costa Silva Marques should testify in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2021

The conflict between Bolsonaro and the ministers of the STF have stalled the confirmation of André Mendonça’s appointment to the STF. The House should conclude voting on the Political Reform PEC. The leaders of the CPI cancelled the discussion between Minister Onyx Lorenzoni and Dep. Luiz Miranda...

The Taliban victory creates risks for Gulf states
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Aug 2021

The speed of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has shocked policymakers in the Gulf as much as those in the US. It will take time to see how the new regime will behave in practice, and the second-order implications of this dramatic development are difficult to predict, but we can begin to specu...

Some really impressive data released this morning: Q2 GDP, fiscal deficit, government debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2021

Good news on good news, seriously.In first estimate, GDP grew by 2.7% mom, 17.7% yoy in Q2. So far, the best number to have was +13.7% yoy, as predicted by the Finance Ministry, on the basis of their leading indicator, the Weekly Economic Index. Analysts, and their surveyors, now remember that th...

Russia trying to establish a good relationship with the Taliban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2021

On August 15 the Taliban took Afghanistan's capital. Moscow praised the Taliban for restoring stability to the city. On August 17 the Russian ambassador is to meet with the Taliban. The Taliban have said they are guaranteeing security of life and property. The US and other NATO countries have mos...

Economics: Complex outlook for public finances in 2022 with poor expense structure and growing financing needs
MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2021 · 1 response

Recently released government data on public finances gives a preview of the economic package that will be sent to Congress in early September. Based on the evolution of public finances in the first half of 2021, the trends in revenue, expenditures, and deficits indicate a budget deficit 21.7% low...

Permanent political tension and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2021

The House holds the second round vote on the Political Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and will try to pass the income tax bill. The Pandemic Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate has a discussion between Deputy Luiz Miranda and the Minister of Employment and Socia...

The Meaning of Restrictive Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2021

In making the decision to raise the SELIC rate above the level compatible with the neutral level, the Central Bank announced it will execute restrictive monetary policy. Without counting on the “expectations channel”, which is becoming unanchored, and without a contribution from the “exchange rat...

Bolsonaro stated that he would submit impeachment requests against ministers of the STF, the House may vote on the income tax this week, and the TCU will analyze the 5G auction notice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2021

Singer and former Federal deputy Sergio Reis said there would be a mobilization of soy farmers and truck drivers if Rodrigo Pacheco chooses not to vote on the paper ballot issue and rejects the impeachment requests against the STF ministers. This Friday is the deadline for President Bolsonaro to ...

Politics: AMLO and the judicial branch, an increasingly complicated relationship
MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2021 · 1 response

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is at loggerheads with the judicial branch, and more specifically with the Supreme Court and the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), which is the highest authority in the electoral field and whose decisions cannot be appealed. The President charges that the j...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Aug 2021

* July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside, and core increased to 1.7% y/y from 1.2%. * We expect inflation of 1.1% as shekel appreciation continues to moderate inflation while housing rental prices accelerate. * Israeli institutions were net FX sellers of 3.9bn USD in June and 16bn...

Over-optimistic forecasters
INDIA · Report · 16 Aug 2021

As the year progresses, GDP forecasts in India are improving, as is to be expected. But there is a bias in the form of over-optimism. Crude bias correction is applied, based on four years of evidence, to obtain a modified consensus forecast for 2021-22: 6.8% GDP growth. GDP measurement in Indi...

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment GDP growth in Q2 reached 15.4% saar (1st estimate), above consensus and our expectations. GDP growth in Q1 was revised upwards to -1.4% from -5.8%. In Q2, Private consumption growth reached 36.3% (due to the opening up of the economy), investmen...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

July’s CPI increased by 0.4% m/m above expectations for 0.3% Headline inflation increased to 1.9% y/y (from 1.7%), core inflation reached 1.7% (up from 1.2%). Housing rental prices accelerated slightly, reaching 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). Housing purchase prices (a separate survey) incre...

Russian economy bouncing back
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2021

On August 13 data by the Federal Statistics Agency was published demonstrating that the economy recovered strongly in Q2 2021. The economy grew 10.3% YoY in that quarter. Admittedly Q2 2020 was the worst quarter for several years. The data for Q3 is expected to be even better. In Q1 2021 there wa...

GDP up 10.3% y-o-y in 2Q21 – in line with expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2021

Rosstat reported the Russian GDP was up in 2Q21 by 10.3% y-o-y, which is in line with our expectations (the latest forecast published in early June 2021). It was a preliminary estimate, and Rosstat provided no more details. One cannot rule out that at a later stage, Rosstat may revise the reporte...

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