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Sberbank buying Rambler
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

On October 29 it was announced that Sberbank will buy Rambler Group. Rambler is an internet and media holding company. Many email addresses in Russia are called "@rambler.ru"Sber invested in Rambler in 2019. It bought 47% of the company for about USD 125 million: the figure is secret.In July 2020...

Spending on Government Personnel
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Oct 2020

In this report we analyze: a) the expenditures on active and inactive personnel by the state governments; and b) the current stage of the administrative reform in the federal sphere. Outlays on personnel represent over 20% of the total spending of the federal government, of which approximately ha...

Calvey civil case ends in a USD 32 million payout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

Michael Calvey, an American investor in Moscow, has been detained for 18 months. The founder of Baring Vostok was accused of embezzlement. It relates to the ownership of Vostochny Bank. Calvey is under house arrest.The Russian business and banking community said the case has had a very deleteriou...

Ruling party in Ukraine does poorly in local elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

On October 25 Servant of the People lost the local elections. Servant of the People is a party only founded in 2018. It is the party of President Zelensky. His and the party's ratings have tumbled since he took office in May 2019.A party called European Solidarity has made a small comeback. This ...

The MNB has kept the 1-week deposit rate unchanged today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

The MNB has kept the 1-week deposit rate unchanged at 0.75% today, despite the weak forint, which is currently trading close to EURHUF 369.This is an important indication of the Bank's preference as to the EURHUF exchange rate. Previously, it seemed for quite a while that the Bank intended to kee...

Russia allows travel to and from more countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

On October 29 Moscow announced an easing of travel restrictions.There are already flights to over 10 countries. From November 1 there will be flights to Japan, Serbia and Cuba. The government does not look like it is bringing in another lockdown.Citizens and residents of the countries that Russia...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement: Questions remain regarding implementation of economic reforms
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Oct 2020

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni tabled South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) yesterday, just four months after the country’s Supplementary 2020 Budget was presented on the back of rapidly evolving budgetary requirements because of the Covid-19 pandemic. There has been a keen in...

Economic policy and growth: short-term problems – no excuse to ignore long-term challenges
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2020

Rosstat reported that Russian industry was down by 2.9% in 9M20 and by 5.0%y-o-y in September. Manufacturing was flat y-o-y in 9M20 and down by 1.6% in September, while mining posted a 10.0% and 6.5% y-o-y contraction in 9M20 and in September alone, respectively. The results do not look too bad, ...

4.9% Q3 growth, with surging exports
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2020

GDP was up 4.9% y/y in Q3, a rise of 1.7 pps from Q2, but still 1.1 pps lower than in Q3 2019. Industrial output was up 5.8% y/y in Q3, up 1.4 pps from Q2, and up 0.8 pps from Q3 2019. Investment was up 8.8% y/y, up 5 pps from Q2, and up 4.1 pps from Q3 2019, with investment in manufacturing ...

Inflation report: gradualism to continue until it can't
TURKEY · Report · 28 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The CBRT has released this year's fourth and final Inflation Report according to which the Bank increased its yearend inflation forecast by a sizeable 3.2 percentage points, from 8.9% to 12.1%, which is higher than both the New Economic Program (NEP) forecast of 10.5% (released just about a month...

Bearing up (with updates to Tables 1 and 2)
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2020

Costa Rica is caught in political confrontations over the urgent task of restoring fiscal sustainability in order to avoid a financial crisis. The government’s decision to discard the announced proposal for a program with IMF has been October’s most noteworthy event. The failure came from the bia...

Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire fails
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

On October 28 both countries have accused each other of numerous ceasefire violations and killing dozens of civilians. Iran had sent more troops to its border with the two countries. The Iranians are officially neutral but lean towards Armenia.Azerbaijani military equipment is mostly a generation...

Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 26, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Oct 2020

The weakness we have been seeing in the consumer sector continues, but it may be flattening out. There is a slight downward trend in traffic congestion, auto sales and other sectors, but it is very mild. The strength remains in the industrial/infrastructure area, but the fact that consumers appea...

New forecast data in from finance minister Varga
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

Finance minister Mihály Varga spoke publicly on three different occasions in recent days, including two conferences and his annual hearing by parliament's budget committee. What came out of his statements as really new was two pieces of forecast data. He now expects GDP growth at -6.4% this year ...

Russian interest rate kept at 4.25%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

On October 23 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced they key rate is remaining steady. This was widely expected. Coronavirus, the US election and the possibility of sanctions all contributed to this.Inflation is 3.8% which is a rise. It will likely be 4% by the end of 2020 which is the CBR t...

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