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The Legislative and Judicial branches return to work, Arthur Lira will try to pass the income tax bill, and the STF analyzes the legality of an important tax cut
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2021

The Pandemic Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate also returns to work this week. Deputy Celso Sabino, rapporteur of the income tax bill, should submit a new report on the bill this week. The paper ballot proposal is unlikely to be approved. The market is watching the court-orde...

Economic news still muddled alongside the odd instance of pre-pandemic activity levels
MEXICO · Report · 02 Aug 2021

Data released in July provided plenty of evidence of strong percentage growth from multiple indicators, although most of those gains were achieved thanks to the easy comparison against the months of 2020, when Mexico and the economies of its main trading partners saw activity plummet as the autho...

Fiscal deficit to decline sharply on robust revenues
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Aug 2021

1. In 2022, The fiscal deficit is expected to return to pre-Covid levels without any consolidation. 2. Rapid growth in tax revenues has resulted in downward fiscal deficit forecasts. 3. Rapid growth in hi-tech service exports is offsetting a worsening trade deficit; fundamentals remain...

The fiscal deficit is expected to decline sharply on robust revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Aug 2021

Highlights: Sharp growth in tax revenues reduces fiscal deficit The MoF continues to revise its fiscal deficit forecast downwards on surprisingly strong tax revenues. Currently, MoF expect a deficit of 6.8% GDP in 2021 and 4% in 2022. This is expected to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio at around 73%...

Current wage growth is too much for inflation, too little for healthy economic growth
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Aug 2021

We quite rarely report on wage growth separately, but this time around it seems really important, from the point of view of growth and inflation prospects, and of government and central bank policy.The news is that net (after-tax) wage growth for the average full-time employee was 8.2% yoy in May...

Deepening relationship between China and Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2021

In June 2021 Kyiv appended its signature to a statement condemning China for the persecution of the Uyghur ethnic minority. Over 40 nations had signed the statement. The document was to be presented to the UN Human Rights Commission at Geneva and demanded an investigation into the detention witho...

Russian banks raising their interest rates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2021

After the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) raised its key interest rate in July 2021 commercial banks have followed suit. Some raised their rates even before CBR - these included Gazprombank, Rosbank and Promsvyazbank. Some banks raised the interest rate for depositors.Raiffeisen and VTB said they do...

The rise of Indonesian exports
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jul 2021

Indonesia is in the midst of fighting the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of new infection cases increased exponentially in the last week of June and the early weeks of July 2021. At the same time the mortality rate was also very high. This situation was worse than the first semester ...

Peru Webinar: Reviewing the next government's policies
PERU · Report · 30 Jul 2021

Visit our Events Calendar to watch the replay of our latest Peru Webinar featuring Dr. Alfredo Thorne. Following the inauguration, Dr. Thorne discusses the new president's political and economic plans and how new leadership will impact Peru.

Bolsonaro did not present evidence of electoral fraud in 2014 during his livestream, the STF published a video criticizing Bolsonaro’s claims that the Court stopped the government from dealing with the pandemic, and Congress returns to work next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2021

Bolsonaro did not have proof of electoral fraud but claimed there are clear indicators of fraud. The president of the STF called the leaders of the three branches for a meeting to discuss the political tension. The House should vote on the income tax reform proposal next week, and the Senate shou...

GULF WEEKLY: Tunisia crisis stirs Gulf divisions, Omani unemployment falls, IMF warns Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Tunisia’s president has made a power grab, dismissing the prime minister, closing parliament and launching a probe of Islamist party Ennahda, which has had close relations with Qatar. * The Tunisian crisis risks reopening ...

​Delta watch 2: Lockdown
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Jul 2021

After announcing yesterday that there will be no change in Metro Manila’s quarantine status for the next two weeks, government today decided for a more aggressive response against rising infections in the capital, returning Metro Manila to strict lockdown for two weeks from August 6 to 20. Daily ...

Recovery under uncertainty
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The Costa Rican economy showed better than expected results in H1. Faster recovery of the country’s main trading partners helped improve exports. H1 fiscal figures were also favorable. The next 18 months will be crucial. The first review of the SBA agreement with the IMF will be in October 2021, ...

Vaccination is improving, the economy remains on a slow path to recovery, and the dialogue on public pension reform is going nowhere
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The total number of vaccines already shipped to the country is 3 million (for a population of 4.3 million inhabitants) and will reach 9.3 million before the end of the year (7.1 million Pfizer, 1.1 million Astra Zeneca, and 1.1 million the Covax system). This new environment may help the health a...

Russian macro: industry and construction to drive economic growth in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The Russian economic recovery was broad-based in July. Economic growth gathered pace not only in industry, as was published last week, but also in other segments of the economy. The output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for GDP, a kind of a flash estimate) was up y-o-y by 12.0% in Jun...

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