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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The year of uncertainty: Covid, inflation and EU funds
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Moving forward within the year, official sources are painting the picture of an increasingly strong economy with no prospective further disruption from Covid, with the likely annual GDP growth rate over 6% and with growing inflationary pressures. The policy response they are talking about is dist...

Belarus intensifies crackdown on the media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2021

Lukashenka is becoming even more oppressive. On July 20 more journalists and historians were arrested, and the bank accounts of the Belarusian Association of Journalists' were frozen. The same happened to the PEN Club and other NGOs.The police raided the homes of 66 people who are members of vari...

Russia to hold military exercises near Afghanistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2021

On July 19 Moscow stated that it will deploy troops in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to hold joint drills with the armies of those countries. On August 5-10 military drills will be held in Tajikistan. Later drills will be held in Uzbekistan. The stated aim of the drills is to prepare for the eventual...

President Bolsonaro once again criticized the electoral fund, the measure was judicialized in the STF, and the PSDB considers not launching its own presidential candidate next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2021

President Bolsonaro also criticized the Vice President of Congress, Deputy Marcelo Ramos, who responded by requesting access to the impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro. The case in the STF against the electoral fund is unlikely to progress. Although the PSDB is considering not launching a p...

Two possible levels of Central Government deficit for 2022: -4.4% and -2.7% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

The Ministry of Finance sent the 2022 Macroeconomic and Fiscal Projections Progress Report to the National Congress. A vague document on the projections of income, spending and budgetary results projected for 2022, in which three possible scenarios of budgetary results are presented. Scenario 1 I...

​Inflation will remain high and the recovery weak in 2022, even if the government can avoid another debt default
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021

Any economic forecast for the Argentinian economy needs to start by assessing the possibility of avoiding another debt default over the next two years. A default on the dollar-denominated debt would adopt the form of going into arrears with the IMF, thereby blocking the possibility of accessing f...

The convoluted Center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Due to the legislative recess, this week should be relatively slow in Brasilia. President Jair Bolsonaro has left the hospital in São Paulo and should return to work this week. On July 24, the opposition plans to hold demonstrations against the government. This week's Talking Points: *...

The correct path to recovery
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The first 150 days of President Lasso’s administration have been characterized by economic openness with sensible protection of Ecuadorian producers; transparency, efficiency, and investment attraction for the oil sector; recovery and improvement of domestic productivity; hard work to continue wi...

​OPEC+ deal boosts future allocations for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new OPEC+ deal implements a 2m b/d taper in cuts over the rest of 2021 and extends producer cooperation until end-2022. It implies further tapering back to baselines by October 2022. In return for its cooperation, the UAE gets a boost in its baseline to 3.5m b/d (a 10.5% increase) for the fin...

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY – THE LATEST INDICATORS
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Despite the frustration over the performance of the IBC-Br for May (decline of 0.43% when the expectation was elevation of 1.1%), there are no reasons to alter the growth projections for 2021. The recovery continues to be favored by the expansion of global trade and the rising commodity prices. W...

Castillo confirmed as president, as nation awaits July 28th speech
PERU · Report · 19 Jul 2021

On July 21st, more than a month after the June 6th second round of the presidential election, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the National Election Tribunal) is due to announce that Pedro Castillo Terrones of the Perú Libre party has won the election, and will become Peru’s 63rd president...

Governor Matolcsy wants much faster reduction of the fiscal deficit
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

MNB governor Matolcsy published an article in Magyar Nemzet (a rightist daily newspaper), claiming that the fiscal deficit should be reduced to around 3% of GDP already in 2022. Instead of using the government budget, economic recovery should be financed by the MNB and the banking system, mobilis...

Economics: Industrial recovery is underway, but remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Industrial activity in May 2021 posted a mere 0.1% seasonally adjusted monthly increase. This paltry result can mainly be attributed to a 0.7% contraction in manufacturing. Percentage changes relative to a year ago can often appear impressive, but can also be deceiving given the low and distorted...

Chile's Presidential Primaries
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

Chile held presidential primaries on Sunday, with the participation of two main political agglomerations: Chile Vamos, made up of the two traditional parties of the right, National Renovation and UDI, and Apruebo Dignidad, composed of the Communist Party and the Frente Amplio (Broad Front). A bit...

Bolsonaro should return to work this week, Dep. Celso Sabino participates in a debate on income tax reform, and André Mendonça’s appointment to the STF continues to be analyzed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Bolsonaro criticized the electoral fund approved in the LDO and will likely veto the measure. Deputy Celso Sabino believes that lower corporate taxes will stimulate the economy and generate more revenue for the government. The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Senate should conclude Mendo...

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