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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Nearing recovery
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Q2 GDP numbers were anxiously awaited, given the collective desperate need to determine whether Colombia had returned to pre-crisis economic activity levels. Dane data shows that the country is almost there in aggregate terms, though there are significant sectoral variations. In general, services...

Bolsonaro issued a statement restating his commitment to the Constitution, the TSE created an Election Transparency Committee and the STF begins analysis of the injunction for a deadline for Congress to analyze impeachment requests against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Bolsonaro calls for the branches of the government to cooperate and reiterates his commitment to the Constitution. His statement did not please his most radical supporters but it does help to ease the tense climate in the government. The BR do Mar bill, the Administrative Reform proposal and the ...

Russia’s current account widens to the highest level in eight years
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2021

The CBR reported its preliminary estimate of the 8M21 current account and foreign trade balance. The current account widened to $69.7 bn, which was the highest level in eight years, as the CBR revealed. The trade balance reached $106.4 bn due to increased energy prices and increased volumes of en...

The NBU increases prime rate by extra 0.5 ppt up to 8.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Sep 2021

The NBU Board increased the prime rate by an extra 0.5 ppt up to 8.5%. The decision was widely expected as the NBU itself mentioned a likely prime rate revision up to 8.5% if inflation trends remain strong. In the meantime, CPI was reported declining seasonally by 0.2% m/m in August amid eased fo...

Abinader's second year begins with ambiguous expectations
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 09 Sep 2021 · 1 response

Last August 16th marked the first year of Luis Abinader’s presidency. It was a year marked by the pressures of handling the pandemic crisis, and the challenges of creating the necessary conditions for both a health and economic recovery. During the first year, the political context was chara...

Lira and Fux respond to Bolsonaro’s criticisms of the legislature and judiciary, the PSDB announced its opposition to the government, and truck drivers have organized demonstrations across the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2021

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that he no longer sees room for extremism and radicalism. The president of the STF, Luiz Fux, said that if Bolsonaro does not comply with Minister Alexandre de Moraes’s decisions, that would constitute a crime of responsibility, which would be grounds...

The key rate is likely to go up more
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2021

As Rosstat reported that inflation reached in August 6.68% y-o-y and 0.17% m-o-m, while there were no signs of deflation in early September (for the period from September 1 to 6 Rosstat reported 0.06% inflation), the CBR will most likely raise its key rate tomorrow by 25-50 bps.Even though a stro...

El Salvador: On bitcoins and presidential re-election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On bitcoinsOn Tuesday El Salvador adopted bitcoins as a legal tender currency. Daily transactions such as buying groceries or paying taxes can now be made using bitcoins through a digital wallet called “Chivo” (local slang for "cool"). President Bukele confirmed that on Monday the government purc...

Higher costs of borrowing cooling down consumer demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

The CBR released statistics on averaged weighted consumer credit interest rates for July. Unsurprisingly they appeared higher than in the previous months. Changes in interest rates varied across segments. Car loans saw the most visible increase in costs of debt servicing. In July, the average int...

An unsurprising rise by yoy CPI-inflation surprisingly surprised analysts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

We apologise for this somewhat complicated title, but this was really weird a bit. As reported earlier today, the headline rate of CPI-inflation rose back to 4.9% yoy in August from 4.6% yoy in July. Portfolio.hu's analyst 'consensus' (in fact the median expectation) was 4.7% yoy, so yes, analyst...

SA GDP surprises on the upside in the third quarter, but the outlook warrants cautious optimism
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2021

Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA) recently rebased South Africa gross domestic product (GDP) has resulted in upward revisions of the country’s 2020 GDP (at current prices) by 11%, to R5.52 trillion (previously R4.97 trillion). This leaves the annual growth rate for 2020 at -6.4% from -7%. The ...

Jair Bolsonaro said he would no longer respect Min. de Moraes’s decisions, the Senate cancelled all legislative activity for the week, and the STF resumes the adjudication of the case dealing with the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2021

Jurists are saying that if Bolsonaro does not comply with the decisions of the Court, it could constitute a criminal act and could result in the opening of impeachment proceedings against him. The House may vote on the Electoral Reform proposal today. The most controversial measure is the five-ye...

A reasonable-looking compromise decision on the debt moratorium
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

According to a so far officially unannounced report by the local daily Világgazdaság, which we give much credit to, as it sounds rather realistic, the government cabinet have made its decision on the existing moratorium on local bank debts, which is set to expire, according to current regulation,...

Demonstrations on September 7 maintain a climate of institutional tension
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2021

The demonstrations in support of President Jair Bolsonaro, held yesterday, September 7, in important state capitals of the country, were significant. The biggest protests occurred in São Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ) and Brasília (DF). The large amount of protestors shows that the President sti...

Economics: Labor market gaps remain despite signs of recovery in formal and informal jobs
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2021 · 1 response

After data for the first quarter of 2021 showed job losses year over year, a recovery began during the second quarter. The main reading of formal employment in Mexico – the number of workers actively enrolled with the Mexican Social Security Institute or IMSS – had broken slightly back below pre ...

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