GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

This week's Thursday holiday means reduced activity in the Legislative branch. The House may announce the creation of a Special Committee to analyze Administrative Reform. Arthur Lira could announce the rapporteur of the bill that creates the CBS tax. In the Senate, the rapporteur of the Eletrobr...

Robust growth without monetary loosening

CHINA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Growth is stable. Industrial output was up 9.8% y/y in April, and up 14.1% y/y from April 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8% y/y, the same as in Q1, and higher than the pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019. Investment is still weak, and rose 8% y/y from April 2019, with an annualized growth rat...

The "rebound effect" versus the "hysteresis effect": The projections for the economy in 2021 are betting on the former, but we analyze the latter

PANAMA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

The IMF projects 12% real growth for the year, based on three factors: the vaccination rollout, the private investment recovery, and the "rebound effect" after a 17.9 percent drop in economic activity in 2020. Rating agencies and other international analysts are also projecting double-digit growt...

The marriage of the two unicorns

INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Indonesia has seen an interesting story about the merger of two unicorns, Gojek, a ride-hailing start-up, and Tokopedia, a marketplace platform, both of which were "unicorns" before the merger. The merger of the two companies strengthens the technology companies to reach a possible valuation of s...

Q1 GDP: Some signs of a painful transformation?

TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2021

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 7%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2021, and 1.7%, q/q (Graph 1). The information content of year-on-year data in terms of showing the true state of the economy is especially misleading nowadays, given the strong base effects from last year -- and ...

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 28% saar in Q121. Credit card purchases increased by 18% from January to April. Initial data for May point to a modest contraction (sa). Consumer confidence remained elevated in the 1st half of May, sl...

Gazprom earning up as it plans 703 m tower

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 29 the Russian gas giant announced it recovered i Q1 in 2021. It made a profit of USD 6.1 billion. That was against a profit of USD 1.8 billion for the whole of 2020. Sales in Q1 2021 up 30% YoY.Most Gazprom exports go to the EU. Profits from these sales were 25% up in Q1. Prices in RUB we...

Another hack on the US suspected to be Russian backed

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 28 a huge hack occurred in the USA. Government agencies, think tanks, consultants and other bodies were attacked. The group who committed the attack is called Nobelium. The organizations attacked are foreign policy ones. It seems to have been an intelligence gathering exercise.The US Cyber...

The link between EU's ORD and ÁKK/MNB policy

HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 27, the EU Commission announced the approval of its Own Resources Decision (ORD) by all 27 member state parliaments. ORD will enable the EU to collect from member states annual fiscal contributions up to 2% of GNI, instead of the maximum 1.4% allowed so far, with a view to generating the r...

Pakistan and Russia agree a pipeline

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 28 the Ministry of Energy announced that a deal on a natural gas pipeline to be called Flagmanaskim has been signed. It will be a 1 100 km long and will carry 12.3 billion cubic meters per year. The pipeline will pass through Karachi to the port of Gwadar. Some gas will be used by Pakistan...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: going with the flow

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2021

After a steady decline in early 2021, Russia’s daily infection cases descended in mid-March to below 10K, but there has been little progress since then. Daily cases have been hovering mostly between 8K and 9K, albeit occasionally exceeding the lower and the upper boundary of this band. It was a s...

Administrative Reform approved in the CCJ, Dimas Covas criticizes the government in the COVID CPI and the the rapporteur for the privatization of Eletrobras may be chosen next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2021

The Administrative proposal is progressing well in Congress. The next step of analysis – the creation of the Special Committee – may occur in the next few days. The COVID CPI approved the request to summon governors and mayors, shifting the focus away from the federal government. The provisional ...

Russian online video major received USD 250 million funding

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2021

On May 25 Ivi's funding round received the funds from Russian state and private investors. The deal is one of the largest funding rounds in Russian tech in the last 10 years. It is also the biggest in the online streaming market.The investors are VTB Bank, Russian Direct Investment Fund, AG Inves...

OMAN: Unemployment protests are heated but the fiscal response is more muted

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2021

Unemployment protests this week have spurred the announcement of a package of employment measures by the government. However, it only totals around 0.5% of GDP, spread over two years, and is not yet too concerning for Oman's fiscal consolidation efforts, which should be well ahead of budget this ...

Sen. Rodrigues tried to summon President Bolsonaro to the CPI, Dimas Covas testifies in the CPI and private sector worried about Tax Reform

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2021

A request to summon President Bolsonaro was denied in the COVID CPI. The Constitution implies that the President of Brazil cannot be summoned by a committee of Congress. The CPI should summon governors and mayors next week. A graudal approach to Tax Reform worries the private sector about increas...