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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New poll shows improvement in Bolsonaro’s popularity and strengthens Guedes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2020

The improvement in public opinion in relation to the economy is the main factor responsible for the increase in President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. In the XP/Ipespe poll published today, the Jair Bolsonaro government’s great/good ratings increased by 7% and are now at 37%. His bad/very bad rat...

Politics: Infighting heats up in Camp 4T
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2020

Last week, an audio recording was leaked of Minister of the Environment Víctor Manuel Toledo sharing with top members of his staff a blistering critique of the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and its failure to seriously pursue the “regime change” he promised with his claim to...

Noisy politics and new lockdown jeopardize the economic recovery
PERU · Report · 17 Aug 2020

Congress delivered a shock on Tuesday, August 4, when it passed a vote of no confidence in the then-prime minister, Pedro Cateriano, and his Cabinet. Although the new prime minister, Walter Martos, and his Cabinet were approved by Congress last Tuesday, August 11, with a large majority (115 out o...

Russia's industrial performance looked encouraging in July amid some improvements in manufacturing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2020

In the aftermath of some break caused by the lockdown in April and May, the Russian industry performed reasonably well in July. Though, mining was still under pressure due to deep contraction in oil production stipulated by the OPEC+ deal. Rosstat reported that oil and gas extraction in July was ...

A positive outlook for reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2020

Presidential vetoes that could be overturned may be analyzed by Congress. Among them are the vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and civil servants' salaries. The economic team is discussing a trigger system for the spending ceiling with party leaders. In the Senate, we highlight the discussion of t...

Are We in a Pandemic or Las Vegas?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Aug 2020

In 1921, Frank Knight defined the difference between risk and uncertainty. Put succinctly, risk can be measured – a standard deviation above the mean indicates a greater risk – while uncertainty cannot be measured. As will be seen below, the standard deviation of the forecasts for GDP in 2020 (Fo...

Economics: Public spending priorities for 2020 remain the same as before
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2020

As the first full-year budget following the extraordinarily sophomoric exercise of 2019, the 2020 budget and the net public spending as of June offer a much clearer view of the ways in which this government intends to target and implement its resources. The newly released public finance results f...

Underlying (core) inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Aug 2020

Highlights: July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside (0.2% m/m, vs. 0.1% expected). Inflation is down 0.6% y/y, and core inflation is down 0.37% y/y. Housing rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.4% y/y (from 1.7% last month). The PPI (excluding energy) is down 1.8% y/y...

Belarussian president rocked by protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2020

On August 16 a protest of 70 000 people gathered in Minsk. This is by far the largest demonstration the country has ever seen. This is too big for the police to shut down. A pro-government demonstration also took place but gathered only a few thousand people. Lukashenka said he begged for people ...

Luis Abinader was sworn in as president with an agenda of economic reactivation and fighting the pandemic, corruption and impunity.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Aug 2020 · 1 response

With an emphasis on addressing the health crisis, the economic reactivation and the fight against corruption, Luis Abinader Corona was sworn in today as the 67th president of the Dominican Republic. He offers unlimited dialogue and work to promote the urgent changes to get out of the current cris...

Underlying (core) inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 17.8.20July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside (0.2% m/m, vs. exp. 0.1%)Inflation is down 0.6% y/y and core inflation is down 0.37% y/y.Housing rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.4% y/y (from 1.7% last month).The PPI (excluding energy) is down ...

Belarus releases Russian mercenaries in a bid to curry favor with Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020

On August 15 Lukashenka ordered 32 Russian Wagner mercenaries to be set free. The men were arrested in July for allegedly trying to overthrow the president. The opposition suspected it was an electoral stunt and that is what it has proved to be. Ukraine has complained about the release of the Wag...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020

On August 14 the EU announced 'smart' sanctions on Belarus. The sanctions will target Lukashenka, some organizations and some top officials. The list has not yet been drawn up. This is to penalize the government for their large scale electoral fraud. All EU members agreed to the sanctions in prin...

Emergency aid program boosts Bolsonaro’s popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2020

The new Datafolha poll, published today, shows that the R$ 600 emergency aid program, paid by the government to informal workers who were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, is boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. According to the poll, the government’s positive ratings (great/goo...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....

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