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The Risk of Failing to Meet the Spending Cap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Aug 2020

The spending cap is not a self-applicable fiscal rule. It is a political commitment whose compliance in the coming years will require approval of a set of reforms necessary to impose fiscal austerity by controlling expenditures – not by increasing revenues – establishing conditions for faster eco...

Economy continued to recover in July, performance differed across sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2020

Rosstat released preliminary statistics on major economic indicators for July, which confirm that the Russian economy is on a recovery track, even though this recovery is not uniform across sectors.Agriculture was up 4.0% y-o-y last month, which brought the 7m20 tally to 3.3% versus 3.0% in 1H20....

Bank in Russia issues first loan backed by cryptocurrency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2020

On August 18 Lender Expobank lent money to Mikhail Uspensky. He offered Waves crypto tokens as security for the loan. The amount of the loan is secret. Lawyers were consulted before the issuance of the loan. Waves tokens are recognized as property and they have been deposited in an escrow account...

MPC: ​No hikes, liquidity steps to continue
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Aug 2020

Broadly in line with expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee has left the policy rate (weekly-repo) unchanged today, and signaled that tightening through “liquidity measures” would continue instead (link to today’s statement is here).As regards the latter, in a step that has accompanied today...

Improvement in Bolsonaro’s popularity does not reduce economic pessimism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2020

Despite President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity having reached its highest levels since the beginning on his term – the Datafolha and XP/Ipespe polls pointed out that the government’s great/good ratings reached 37% – there is pessimism in public opinion regarding the future of the economy. Accordin...

Sharply falling GDP, rising inflation, mixed financials
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2020

The domestic Covid-19 situation remains outstandingly favorable in a global and even in a European comparison, but the earlier steady improvement has clearly stalled recently. The daily number of new infections and the stock number of active cases have both started to rise moderately in recent we...

MPC Preview
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Aug 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow (August 20th). We expect the MPC to leave the policy rate (weekly-repo) unchanged, although we would not completely rule out a relatively modest hike. This is broadly in line with (the probability dist...

Russian industrial production down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2020

On August 18 the Russian Statistic Agency published data showing that industrial output fell 8% in July Y o Y. That is not as bad as May and June 2020 when it was 9.5% down Y o Y.Oil, gas and coal extraction is down more sharply than industrial production. Oil was down 165 Y o Y in July. The trou...

Bolsonaro and Guedes’s relationship is even more secure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2020

The meeting that took place on August 17 at the Planalto Palace between President Jair Bolsonaro and Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes further reaffirmed the trust between them. When leaving the Planalto Palace, where he discussed measures to edit the funding in the budget, Guedes said, "The p...

​OMAN: Cabinet reshuffled and VAT debated, but revenues collapse and Fitch downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

There has been a flurry of Oman developments in the last few days, positive and negative, which are important to assess as the country prepares for a bond issuance in the relatively near future (well before its recently-closed $2bn bridge loan matures in mid-2021). Negative Fitch downgrad...

Finance Ministry cancels OFZ placement this week
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2020 · 1 response

The Russian Ministry of Finance authorities decided not to conduct OFZ primary placement this week. To remind, last week the Finance Ministry failed to attract enough demand at reasonable yield and canceled the placement. This week the cancelation was made in advance. During the last three weeks ...

The problem of inflation
INDIA · Report · 18 Aug 2020

By law, the RBI is expected to deliver year-on-year CPI inflation in a range from 2 to 6 per cent. In recent months, headline inflation has often overshot above 6 per cent. Why has this happened? Petroleum product prices in India did not drop in line with the collapse in the world price of cru...

Essential CIS Politics: August 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2020

* Russia claims to have developed a coronavirus vaccine. * In Belarus the president claimed to be re-elected despite widespread allegations of massive fraud. * Protests continue in the Russian Far East against the arrest of a popular governor. * Russian economic growth is sluggish, and the...

China virus check – week ending August 17, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Aug 2020

Economic activity in China was mixed in the past week. Heavy industry remains relatively flat – but is not declining. The retail sector is mixed. Car sales were down YoY but cinema theaters showed a slight uptick, indicating growing confidence among consumers for leaving the house. The trends are...

Russia using EUR for most Chinese trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2020

On August 17 data was published by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) stating that Russia now receives EUR more than USD for sales to China. Moscow has long wished to reduce USD usage. Over 50% of Chinese purchases from Russia are denominated in EUR. In 2019 the figure was 43%.Russia sells oil, gas...

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