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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​May inflation at 4.5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

As expected, the headline inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in May, reflecting a 0.1% monthly increase in prices. Food prices fell 0.4% mom due mainly to continuing decline in vegetables, with meat prices likewise retreating marginally. The increase in non-food inflation may be traced to catering ser...

Russia to drop USD from reserve fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Finance Ministry said that it will no longer keep holdings in USD. It will switch to more RMB, EUR and gold. The national welfare fund has USD 41 billion in USD at the moment. The switch away from USD is to be completed in a month.The liquid part of the NWF is USD 120 billion. It wi...

Russia makes greenhouse gas law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Duma passed a law restricing the greenhouse gas emissions of private companies. A system to govern emissions will be established. Russia is the 4th biggest emitter in the world.The government shall encourage Russian firms to invest in environmental restoration and to cease behavior ...

Don't be fooled by randomness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 0.89% in May, lower than the consensus (and our) estimate of some 1.3%, which resulted in a drop in the 12-month rate drop --after 7 consecutive months of increase-- to 16.6% from 17.1% in April. On the other hand, producer prices (domestic-PPI inflation) rose by 3.9%, m/m...

Electoral politics may induce a default on IMF debt despite a significant improvement in the fiscal and external accounts
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Unexpectedly, the fiscal accounts came in significantly better than projected in the 2021 budget. The primary deficit during the first four months was 192 billion pesos, which represents only 12% of the primary deficit budgeted for the year. This result was the consequence of an impressive 93% in...

The European Court spoke on a rule-of-law issue, but it is not the important decision yet
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Today's news is that Hungary lost on a rule-of-law issue at the European Court. But just to clarify, it was not the much awaited crucial decision, which is due on the conformity of the newly approved fiscal rule-of-law mechanism with EU law. The Court rejected a Hungarian complaint, by saying tha...

Inflation remains high, prompting the CBR to hike the key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation in the last seven days of May was at 0.12%, and cumulative inflation in May reached 0.61% m-o-m, which is a kind of a flash estimate. It is not yet the final official figure due to be published on June 7. Even though Rosstat now publishes inflation numbers wi...

Ukrainian Presidential University to be founded
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

On May 31 Zelensky announced that a new university will be established. It shall be built in the Expo Center, Kyiv. There will be 11 faculties covering humanities and sciences.Ukraine is worried by the brain drain of scientists emigrating for better pay. The government is seeking to support them ...

Israel's new government likely to support growth but remain fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Last night, Yesh Atid (Lapid) announced to the President that a coalition has been formed making up 61 mandates (out of 120) consisting of eight parties, including one Arab party. Although it appears like a done deal, we cannot rule out some surprises (deserters from the right-wing party Yamina) ...

Inflation, Easing of Risk and Appreciation of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2021

Since the conclusion of the agreement over the budget, the risk premiums have been falling, especially that involving the exchange rate. This movement has accentuated with the recent publication of the GDP figures for the first quarter. This is partly due to the increased revenues generated by th...

GDP strengthens Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes, Dr. Nise Yamaguchi testifies in the COVID CPI and Bolsonaro may join the Patriotas
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2021

Expected GDP growth for 2021 increased to 5%. Dr. Yamaguchi’s testimony was tense yesterday and, today, infectious disease expert Luana Araujo should testify. The Senate discusses the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras, and the House may vote on distributed energy generation. ...

Impact of sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2021

On May the EU banned Belarusian airlines from flying in EU airspace. The EU encouraged its airlines to desist from flying over Belarus. Belarus earns about USD 40 million from overflight fees from EU airlines. That is 0.4% of the budget.The EU has promised Belarus EUR 3.7 billion if Lukashenko le...

St Petersburg Economic Forum going ahead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2021

On June 8 the forum will be held. It was cancelled in 2020 due to the pandemic. 5,000 people are expected to attend. That is half the usual number. 2,000 of them will be foreigners who will only be allowed in after a negative coronavirus test. Qatar is paying for some of the forum's costs.The gov...

Russia will invest USD 10.5 billion in electric vehicles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2021

Vedomosti published the news on June 1. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated that the % of electric vehicles (EV) in Russia will increase from 0.05% to 15% in 2030. That would mean 1.5 million EVs and need 20 000 charging stations.The ministry will invest USD 5.5 billion in EVs. USD 1.7...

Economics: Bits of promising news amid a complicated outlook
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Data released in May provided plenty of evidence of continuing economic weakness in Mexico, but also glimmers of what could be more positive developments to come, as reported numbers of Covid-19 cases continued to trend lower and pandemic-related restrictions continued to be phased out through mu...

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