GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Following the cessation of hostilities, the economy is expected to expand rapidly, but internal political uncertainty remains. A closer look at Q121 GDP numbers reveals strong export growth, as well as investments in equipment and private consumption (excluding new vehicles). Recent indicators po...

Belarus forces airliner to land

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2021

On May 23 Belarus obliged a Ryanair air flight in Belarussian airpsace to land at Minsk. The flight was due to land in Lithuania. Belarus claimed there was a bomb on the plane to make the pilot land. There are allegations that Belarussian intelligence officers on the plane even started a fight as...

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2021

Geopolitics: Following 11 days of confrontation, a ceasefire was declared Friday morning which appears to be holding.The actual cost of this operation is not expected to be significant, but it will strengthen the position of the Ministry of Defense and its demand for a significant increase in the...

Russia raises USD 1.8 billion in debt placement

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2021 · 1 response

On May 20 the first debt placement took place since the US banned its banks from buying Russian Government debt. Foreigners bought 47% of the Eurobonds (i.e. debt denominated in EUR). The government debt coupons were sold by the Finance Ministry. EU banks bought much of the debt.The US Secretary ...

There are no conditions to implement a tax reform in 2021.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 May 2021 · 2 responses

In a long interview to review the first 9 months of his administration, President Luis Abinader indicated that there are no conditions for a tax reform in 2021 and that it is necessary to reach an agreement to see when is the best time to implement said reform. He said that the social forces of t...

Sugar profits at all time high

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2021

On May 17 it was announced that sugar companies have made a bumper profit. This is ironic since the PM railed against companies for excessive profiteering only last week.Rusagro is a comestible company and it made USD 152 million in profit before EBITDA in Q1 2021. That is a YoY 100% increase in ...

Demonstration of support for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

The voting agenda in the Lower House includes, among other items, the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras. The Constitution and Justice Committee may also vote on the report on Administrative Reform. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will release a timetabl...

The South African business environment and post-Covid economic performance

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2021

The overall business environment in South Africa has been challenging, especially since the great recession, with factors such as policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages resulting in low business confidence. Against this backdrop, the performance of the country’s private enterprises ...

The formally approved 2021 Russian budget is likely to be balanced

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the oil-and-gas revenues soared on a m-o-m basis and reached R893 bn in April 2021 (versus monthly average R540bn in 1Q21). This increase could be partially explained by lagged effects of the increased oil price earlier in the year. A bit weaker ruble in April a...

GULF WEEKLY: Omani spending rises, solid Saudi Q1 GDP, Israel normalization tested

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The worst Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2014 presents a challenge to Gulf-Israel normalization. * US-Iran talks entered a critical phase, just two weeks before Iranian electioneering begins. * Saudi Arabia confirmed ...

Strategic regime moderation

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2021

Maduro’s government has signaled a major shift in stance and strategy in the last several weeks. Most importantly, it agreed to a legal process for renewing the five-member board of the National Electoral Council that resulted in the designation of two opposition-aligned members. Maduro has al...

Monetary Policy: Continuation of the “Partial Adjustment” Cycle

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Last week, the COPOM raised the SELIC rate by 75 basis points and promised (with some reservations) an adjustment of equal magnitude at the meeting in June. With respect to the overall size of the cycle, however, it continued affirming that it will pursue a “partial adjustment”. Since its task wi...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong

ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

Belarus' president provides for collective leadership if he is incapacitated

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2021

On May 8 Lukashenko signed a decree stating that if he dies in office or is otherwise rendered incapable of executing his duties then the Security Council shall collectively carry out presidential duties. Until now if the president died or was incapacitated then presidential powers would have bee...

Russian small loans soar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 Equifax Russia published statistics showing that the highest ever number of payday loans was issued in March 2021. Microloans were up 30% YoY. The loans totalled USD 418.5 million. The average size of a loan was USD 180. That is a tidy sum in a country where many people live on USD 2 000...