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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recovery slows, but continues
CHINA · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Industrial output rose 4.8% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment grew 8.3% y/y, up 2.7 pps from June, and up 2.9 pps from Q4, and is still mainly driven by state investment, with a growth rate of 12.7% y/y. The best performer among fixed asset investments i...

​Natural gas discovery: I can neither deny nor confirm....
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

Upon hearing President Erdogan’s “good tidings” on Friday, which turned out to be a modest natural gas reservoir in Black Sea, with hints of much bigger surprises to come, I set out to write a comprehensive essay on Turkey’s natural gas market and how the discovery would alter its dynamics. Howev...

Mass protests in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 23 tens of thousands of people protested in Minsk demanding that the president resign and fair elections be held. The opposition claimed it was over 100 000 people. The protests were almost entirely peaceful. The police watched but did not intervene against the illegal protests. Why? It...

Rosneft seeking approval for Arctic drilling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 20 the CEO of Rosneft met Putin. Igor Sechin presented him with a vial of Arctic oil. The Zapadno-Irkinsky Field's oil has only 0.02% sulfur Sechin claimed. This makes it among the world's purest. This field is part of a planned major oil project with Vostok Oil. If it goes ahead it wil...

Rate stability likely today, but some form of further accommodation possible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

Monetary policy: We do not expect a policy rate change today, but we cannot rule out some additional accommodation. This could take the form of the ECB style LTRO at a negative interest rate, under the condition that these loans are passed on to the private sector. The Bank of Israel is under pre...

Russian State borrowing at highest level since 2005
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

A report by the Audit Chamber published on August 20 showed that government borrowing is about to reach its highest level in 15 years. Government bonds of USD 56 billion need to be issued to fill the gap in the budget. The public sector borrowing requirement is so huge because of the fall in hydr...

Russia sets up offshores onshore
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2020

The Finance Ministry published changes to the tax code on August 19. There will be a 5% tax for Russian offshore companies which are based in Vladivostok and Kaliningrad. These cities are Special Administrative Regions (SARs). These offshores onshore were set up in 2018. This allowed Russian comp...

Russia anti-corruption campaigner poisoned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Aug 2020

On August 20 Alexei Navalny reportedly drank poisoned tea at a Russian airport. The waiter suddenly disappeared. Navalny was rushed to a hospital following an emergency landing by the plane he was on. He has been declared well enough to fly to Germany for medical treatment, despite reports of his...

Positive news in the social area strengthens Bolsonaro’s positive image
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2020

During his time in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), President Jair Bolsonaro announced that the emergency aid will be extended until December this year. According to Bolsonaro, the value of the benefit after its extension is not yet defined. The aid that has been paid since April to informal workers ...

​A few reactions to today’s announcement by President Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2020

As heralded by the media coverage of the past two days, President Erdogan announced today that Turkey has discovered natural gas reserves in the Black Sea region. Initial findings suggest reserves of about 320 billion cubic meters, but there is potential for further finds, Erdogan said. He also a...

A painful wait
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Aug 2020

The grand finale for the debt renegotiation was expected for August 20, but has been postponed until the end of the month in anticipation of a green light on a new IMF program. This new program might not be a short-term stand-by given that the current administration is requesting the inclusion...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait ends RFFG transfers, Saudi inflation spikes, US pushes for sanctions snapback
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oman saw the biggest government restructuring in a decade. * Kuwait’s parliament suspended revenue transfers to the RFFG but kicked back a vote on the debt law for two wee...

China’s dual circulation economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Aug 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * It seems that by now a market consensus has emerged – in China and abroad – that China’s economic recovery has been mainly a supply-side recovery, with the very weak demand side still struggling. * In response to this, Beijing has unveiled Xi J...

Maintaining of presidential veto means challenges in political articulation and aid program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2020

After the voting results in the Senate on August 19, in which the government was defeated in the vote on maintaining the veto to raise civil servants’ salaries, intense political articulation was implemented to reverse the result in the Lower House. The Planalto Palace was victorious and Presiden...

Lower House upholds veto on civil service salaries
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2020

As we predicted, the Lower House has chosen to uphold (316-165) President Jair Bolsonaro's veto on salary raises for public servants. Yesterday, August 19, Senators voted to override the veto (42 for and 30 against), which represents a fiscal impact of R$ 130 billion (R$ 43 billion for the federa...

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