GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy

TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This is a joint report, co-written by GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada and GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations with the UAE...

Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This report was co-written by GlobalSource Partners GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander and GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations...

Zoom forbids sales to Russian State

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2021

On April 7 Kommersant reported that the video conferencing platform banned its distributors from selling services to the Russian government and parastatal entities in Russia and some other former Soviet nations. Zoom's partner in Russia is RightConf. Sales licenses have been revoked from state ag...

Russian currency sliding

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2021

On April 7 the RUB continued to lose value. It has lost 2% of its value since the beginning of the week and trades at 77.7 to the USD. That is its lowest since November 2020.The probable explanation for the RUB's fall is the heating up of the Ukrainian Conflict. This could lead to more Western sa...

Sugar prices rising in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2021

On March 31 Izvestia reported that sugar factories have suspended sales and deliveries to supermarkets as the sugar sector waits for a state subvention. Food prices have gone up 7.7% in the last 12 months. That is the steepest annual rise since 2016. Living standards are at their lowest in 10 yea...

Floundering in COVID-19’s Third Wave

UKRAINE · Report · 02 Apr 2021

The growing number of COVID-19 cases, the mounting numbers of virus-related deaths, and the return to a strict nationwide lockdown are the top issues these days, while the country’s vaccination effort rolls out at a snail’s pace. Still, it does not look as though Ukraine will face the dramatic ec...

A make-it-or-break-it year

TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Let’s start with a caveat. In our almost two decades of jointly covering Turkey as the Global Source Partners Turkey team, we’ve never written a quarterly/forecast report amid this sort of uncertainty. As a compromise of sorts, since the key questions in most of our readers’ minds focus on the ve...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ tapers, Saudi plans $3trn capex, Kuwaiti MPs boycott parliament

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will taper by 1.1m b/d and eliminate the 1m b/d in extra Saudi cuts by July. * Coronavirus continued to worsen across the region, with Qatar expected to go into lockdown. * There were hints of a softening in both US...

Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso

ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

All charged up and ready to go

INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

Recently Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia published a report on the Indonesian electric vehicle industry that underscored its confidence in the Indonesian government's support for the industry, from nickel production for batteries to the prospects of Indonesia's becoming part of the global product...

Fear the wolf and the shepherd

COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2021

These are times of flawed fiscal calculations, in which projections’ failure to match subsequent reality are having negative consequences. The 2020 budget was heavily under-executed, with more than COP 41 trillion (about 4 pp of GDP) of budgeted monies left undeployed. This is a very poor perform...

Economics: Strong demand abroad but a weak homefront

MEXICO · Report · 29 Mar 2021

Economic results published during March tended to confirm the growing consensus that Mexico’s 2021 economic prospects are looking slightly better, with much of that improvement a reflection of the brighter US outlook that can be expected to spill over on multiple fronts, ranging from increased de...

Politics: Voter preferences remain unclear

MEXICO · Report · 29 Mar 2021

This week candidates can begin campaigning for the June 6 elections at a time when the general context has been trending against the current administration and the partial electoral coalition it is taking into the midterm contests for the lower chamber of Congress. And just in time for the occasi...

Pressure for more emergency aid and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2021

President Jair Bolsonaro leads the first meeting of the National Coordination Committee for the Pandemic Response. The new Public Tender Law should be sanctioned on Thursday. Wednesday is the deadline for the functioning of the Joint Committee on Tax Reform. This week's Talking Points: ...