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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New government outlines its agenda, as COVID-19 intensifies
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Aug 2020

The health crisis and economic recovery are President-elect Luis Abinader’s most urgent challenges. The pandemic has intensified over the past two weeks, reaching 66,182 cases and 1,123 deaths, while in the country’s two largest cities, the capacity of the health system is near collapse. GDP g...

Back to mECQ
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020

Two days after keeping Metro Manila under general community quarantine (GCQ), President Rodrigo Duterte last night returned the nation’s capital and surrounding provinces to the more restrictive modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ) effective for two weeks from August 4 to 18. The decisio...

Growing popularity of opposition threatens incumbent in presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020

On July 30 over 60 000 people attended an opposition candidate's demonstration. Svetlana Tishanouskaya is running for president because her husband who was a candidate has been jailed. Public opinion is tightly controlled in Belarus. Such a turnout for an opposition rally is unprecedented. Her ra...

Protests in Russia Far East continuing into 4th week
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020

In Khabarovsk people have been taking to the streets for weeks to demonstrate against the arrest and dismissal of their governor. Sergei Furgal was fired on July 10 and charged with ordering two murders in 2005.Furgal belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party. He has been replaced by Putin with a m...

The ruble: seasonal weakness
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020

In the past several weeks, the Russian ruble underperformed many other EM currencies. At the same time, Russia's fundamentals didn’t change significantly. As monthly foreign trade surplus is relatively small (in June it can be estimated at $4.2bn and in July should not yet differ much) the exchan...

Employment data for Q2 does not look particularly scary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Aug 2020

Employment data by ILO methodology for Q2 has been reported in recent days, as one of the first datasets with information on what happened in June. This report is also important because the whole of the April-June period was affected by the Covid-19 crisis, and indeed it can be legitimately regar...

Savings up in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2020

During strictest lockdown Russian families saved 23% of their disposable incomes according to the Central Bank of Russia. This is the highest ever level. Usually savings hover at around 10% of disposable income. Unemployment is up and wages have gone down. The saving rate is not going to be maint...

GDP contraction in Q2 likely to be moderate (relative to US and EU)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Aug 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up: Recent economic data point to steady economic activity in July: Credit card purchases increased by 4.9% in July (through 28.7). The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past 2 weeks. Production of electricity (adjusted), is up back to la...

Ceasefire in eastern Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2020

On Monday 27 July a ceasefire took effect in Donbass. There have been countless ceasefires that have failed since 2014. The OSCE is observing the situation and cited 111 breaches on day one. This is not as bad in previous ceasefires.The presidents of Ukraine and Russia discussed the situation. Ru...

Rubles falls dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2020 · 1 response

On July 31 the Ruble lost value - reaching its lowest level for a few months. The USD was worth 74.13 RUB at the end of US trading hours. RUB has lost 4% of its value in 2 weeks. RUB is doing even worse against EUR. Russian rate cuts contributed to this. Investors have put their money into safer ...

Clash between the STF and social media does not reduce Bolsonaro’s supporters’ digital activism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2020

In a statement made yesterday, Facebook said that it will appeal the decision of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that closed the accounts of Bolsonaro’s supporters on its platform. Twitter also announced that it would be doing the same. STF Minister Moraes asked for the accounts to be suspended ...

Growth perspectives drop sharply from the previous market projections. Cortizo just announced a 9% decline for 2020 and a rebound of 4% for 2021
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

We project the GDP level and growth for 2020 based on the two scenarios: the re-opening of private and public construction and mining in the last quarter of the year, or a continued stalling of most economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The first would translate into a 9.5% decline (in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar/Kuwait drop GDP data, South Yemen separatists drop self-rule, PIF drops Newcastle bid
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The near-term outlook for oil is weakening after a recent surge partly driven by dollar weakness * Saudi posted a -$29bn deficit in Q2 but there were signs of expenditure ...

Racing for the vaccines
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Indonesia has been challenged by the continued increase in new Covid-19 infections, even though the number of people who have recovered is also increasing. In fact, for the first time, the number of people who recovered in one day has started to exceed the new cases. It is hoped that this develop...

China’s lopsided economic activity
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Very recent trade data from June and July shows a strong uptick in activity at Chinese ports. This is reflected in the bottoming-out of export data. But the specific data on exports by sector is not reflecting strong demand. Domestically, sales data shows China’s heavy reliance on infrastructu...

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