GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Special points to highlight in this issue: * In its meeting last Friday the Politburo coined a new term, "demand-side reform", as something it would implement along with the “supply-side reforms” it has long promised. This is probably going to be a very important policy innovation that finall...

Nord Stream 2 construction hampered by technical difficulties

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Russia is determined to complete the undersea gas pipeline to Germany in 2021. US sanctions have meant that most suitable ships cannot be hired for this.A Russian nuclear powered ship due to take part in the construction cannot participate in the project due to suffering damage. It needs repairs....

Budget 2021 approved with 5.5% of GDP deficit

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, parliament voted in spending plan 2021 with 5.5% of GDP central budget deficit.The final document has not been released year but it is expected to be close to the one we analyzed recently. The authorities claim the spending plan was approved by the IMF but we did not see any...

November’s CPI in line with expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Inflation in November declined by 0.2% m/m and declined by 0.6% y/y (from -0.8% y/y in October). This was in line with market expectations (and mine). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) moved higher to -0.2% y/y from -0.4% last month, but remains in negative territory. We...

Muddling through a fiscal crisis

UKRAINE · Report · 14 Dec 2020

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

The politicization of the vaccine and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Despite the fact that the Congressional recess begins on December 23, this will be the final week of legislative activity this year. On Monday, the House may vote on the bill that deals with state debt and the new currency exchange law, among other proposals. Parliamentarians will also vote on th...

Russian and British coronavirus vaccines may combine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

On December 11 it was announced that the maker of Sputnik V will join forces with AstraZeneca to try to make a join coronavirus vaccine. The British coronavirus vaccine is made at Oxford. The Gamaleya Research Center developed Sputnik V. The state run laboratory's vaccine has met with widespread ...

3Q20 y-o-y GDP upgraded

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

Rosstat upgraded its estimate of the 3Q20 y-o-y GDP growth, which of course remained negative, but less so (-3.4% versus -3.6% released earlier as a flash estimate). This upgrade was generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s thinking and previous upward revisions Rosstat. As a result, the 9M20 GDP ...

EU to give Ukraine EUR 600 million

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

On December 9 Brussels announced that it is granting more macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. This is in view of coronavirus and its economic repercussions. The Vice President of the European Commission said more aid will probably be forthcoming. The money needs to be spent on raising living s...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...

Trade boosts current account balance in the third quarter of 2020

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

South Africa’s (SA) current account recorded a surplus of R297.5bn or 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months ending September 2020. In Q2-2020, the figure was a deficit of R123.7bn or -2.9% (revised from -R104.bn or -2.4%) of GDP. This implies that for the first 9 months of 2020...

Evergrande and China’s Property Bubble

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Rising debt at one of China’s largest developers, Evergrande, has led to concerns that China’s property market may be on the verge of collapse. Evergrande has approximately US$120 billion in debt and may have trouble raising financing. The issue, though, is not just the cash position of Evergrand...

Public spending and prices spiked in November

VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

After a surprising slowdown in October, inflation returned with a vengeance in November. Consumer prices rose by 62 percent month-on-month, compared with 21 percent in October. The spike was driven by public spending, which tripled in November compared with October. We expect that momentum from ...

Latam Outlook 2021 – Post-pandemic prospects – Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Our live webinar features Affonso Pastore, Igal Magendzo, Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Gonzalez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Drausio Giacomelli, Research Head, Emerging Markets, Deutsche Bank.

EU-US sanctions: This is not a “one and done” shock!

TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

EU leaders will impose ultra-light sanction on Turkish entities for East Med gas drilling and uncooperative behavior in the Cyprus conflict. Numerous news agencies report that as a final favor to his pal Erdogan, Mr. Trump will unilaterally announce sanctions against Turkish bureaucrats for the p...