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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth gradually turns positive y-o-y in most sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

As was generally expected, most of Russia’s monthly indicators improved in March and posted positive y-o-y growth. This growth will strengthen in the coming months due to a low base effect in 2Q20. The only exemption in March was retail sales as y-o-y growth remained negative due to a high base i...

​Lockdown watch (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

Can Metro Manila exit the current lockdown? Three weeks since President Rodrigo Duterte placed the nation’s capital and 4 surrounding regions (“NCR+”) under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and more than a week since the transition to its looser form (mECQ), covid19 statistics ar...

Agreement reached on the 2021 Federal Budget
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2021

An agreement has been reached between the Legislative and Executive branches on the 2021 Federal Budget. Around R$ 100 billion in expenses were approved beyond the spending ceiling – R$ 44 billion of which will go toward the emergency aid program, R$ 20 billion for the vaccination program, R$ 12 ...

A burst of fresh air
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The victory of Guillermo Lasso in the second electoral round for president brought a burst of fresh air not only for the 52% of the population who voted for him, but also for international markets, which reacted positively to the news. As a result, country risk fell a historical 345 points or 30%...

Zelensky's charm offensive yields little result
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

On April 16 Zelensky went to Paris to meet Macron. He also spoke to Angela Merkel by videolink. The politicians discussed the Russian forces missing on Ukraine's border. Macron signed a declaration calling for Ukraine to be admitted to the EU. However, Macron did not call for Ukraine to be allowe...

A breathless run-off presidential election
PERU · Forecast · 19 Apr 2021

Without a doubt, the results of the April 11th first-round presidential and congressional elections were surprising. Few had expected an outsider to emerge two weeks ahead of Election Day, and to win by a landslide. The official count by the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE, respons...

The Covid CPI is a source of tension and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The Wednesday holiday this week means reduced activity in Brasília. We highlight the sanctioning of the Budget on Thursday. Congress will analyze vetoes and the bill that allows for increased expenditures. The Federal Supreme Court rules on the partiality of former Minister Sérgio Moro. President...

Politics: AMLO intensifies the offensive against the INE
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2021

In this, the second part of our coverage of the confrontation between President López Obrador and his party on one side, and the country’s electoral authorities on the other, we look at how much the governing camp has raised the stakes in this dispute and is likely to continue to do so well after...

Second wave of infections aggravates social and political conflict
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The decision of the Economic Minister in February to slow the pace of devaluation on the official exchange market in order to reduce the rate of inflation has failed so far. Actually, in March the rate of inflation jumped to 4.8% from 3.6%, and some early indicators show that it is not falling in...

Economics: Rising inflation complicates policy choices
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2021

Minutes from Banco de México’s most recent monetary policy review (March 25) show most board members agree the rate pause they unanimously approved at that meeting does not signal an end to the easing cycle dating back to August 2019 that slashed 8.25 percent off the reference rate. They may get ...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 19, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The number of daily reported Covid cases continues its rapid increase, while daily deaths also surge, both reaching new peaks of the third wave in Turkey. Additional restrictions for the holy month of Ramadan have been announced as a response to the recently soaring numbers. However, many health ...

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week, as the deadline for presidential sanction is Thursday, April 22. President Bolsonaro is expected to veto some parts of the proposal, which should be analyzed by Congress today or tomorrow. The government is also considering submitting a bill that allow...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Apr 2021

*Inflation surprised slightly on the upside due to the impact from pent-up demand as the economy opened up. *On the other hand, housing rental prices moderated, supporting a moderation in core inflation to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% last month. *We are forecasting inflation of 0.9% in the next 12...

Good progress on Covid vaccination, but political risk is rising
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The Covid epidemic really looks like a roller-coaster. In response to the restrictions introduced in early March, its third wave reached a maximum within a few weeks, and daily new infections turned sharply down in the first half of April. However, so far the curve has fallen just a little below ...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review: Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside The CPI in March reached 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y. We (and the market) had expected 0.5% m/m. Pent-up demand was felt on domestic vacation prices (9.7% m/m) and cultural events and parties (3.7%). This was off...

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