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Russian Government seeks USD 2 billion compensation for oil spill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020

On July 6 Moscow said that Nornickel should voluntarily pay compensation for the worst oil spill in Arctic history. The mining company. The Russian Environment Agency said 21 000 tons of diesel leaked out. Norilsk Taimyr is the subsidiary of Nornickel which is responsible. This would be about 33%...

​The BoI will purchase corporate bonds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The MPC decided to maintain present policy rates on hold at 0.1%, but announced a plan to purchase 15bn ILS of Israeli corporate bonds rated A- or higher in the secondary market. In addition, the Bank of Israel will renew its three-year loans to the banks at 0.1%. The monetary announcement reflec...

Education Minister appointment still pending
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

After a strong reaction from the so-called "ideological wing", President Jair Bolsonaro´s intention to appoint the state secretary of Paraná, Renato Feder, to the Ministry of Education was rendered unfeasible. Last night, after becoming the target of attacks on social media, Feder thanked Bolsona...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Between June 1st and July 2nd, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil doubled, from 31 thousand to 62 thousand, while the number of infected people nearly tripled, from 555 thousand to 1.5 million, only lower than the number recorded in the United States (2.8 million). The country has not had a ...

A complex municipal election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to announce the new Minister of Education. He is also expected to sanction Provisional Measure 936, which allows for salary and working hour cuts during the pandemic. The House may vote on Provisional Measure 925, which includes aid to the aviation sector. Flá...

Politics: Presidential approval slips
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2020

President López Obrador has realized a goal he seems to have set for himself from the outset that has become a growing presence in his daily morning press conferences: a discourse consciously designed to pit society between those who back him against all those who do not and might stand in his wa...

Russian political and pandemic update: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Recent reports suggest that Russia’s daily numbers of those newly contaminated with COVID-19 continued to fall slowly but steadily in June and in early July. The recovery ratio in Russia remains high, and the total number of people who have recovered has exceeded the current number of “active cas...

Economics: Trade plunges as USMCA takes effect
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Last week marked a significant development in Mexico’s economic relations with the rest of the world, as the revised North American free trade agreement in the form of the reconfigured United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was formally launched, with all the challenges and risks it entai...

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jul 2020

We expect a rate hold decision today but with a more dovish forward guidance, including low rates for a considerable period of time and bond purchases into 2021. Recent indicators point to some growth in activity but at a slow pace, with the recent spike in infections expected to slow recovery. T...

Further moderately negative data on retail sales, foreign trade and the PMI
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2020

More accurately, the new data is very negative at face value; it is moderately negative only in the sense that it does not seem to provide evidence for any further deterioration of the current performance and of the macro outlook, as compared to our current, as we believe, reasonably pessimistic ...

A more expansionary monetary policy likely today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jul 2020

The Bank of Israel is likely to announce a more expansionary monetary policy today, in light of the rather weak recovery and headwinds from the spike in infections (increasing limitations on certain sectors), as well as the deeply negative core inflation in May (-0.5% y/y). This more expansionary...

Abinader wins the presidential election with 54% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

Today, the opposition defeated the PLD by a wide margin in national elections and there will be no need for a second electoral round. Partial but irreversible results indicate that Luis Abinader (PRM and allies), obtained about 54% of the votes, while Castillo (PLD and allies) managed only 35%. F...

All noise, little signal
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2020

While political noise is deafeningly high, we find few harbingers of anything significant happening soon. We stay on top of developments in Turko-American and Russian relations, as well as the conflicts in Syria and Libya, yet detect little sign of imminent trouble or relief. At home, people s...

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

The highlights of our Weekly Macro Wrap Up 6.7.20Recent data points to a slow recovery as PC growth remains weak:Credit card purchases increased in the last week of June but remains 8% below the level at the beginning of the year.Chain store sales in May are down 16% y/y, while food sales are up....

Russian business dissatisfied with state support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

On July 1 Russia's main business newspaper Kommersant revealed that some of Russia's largest firms have lamented inadequate financial support from the government in the wake of coronavirus. Claiming financial aid is unduly onerous due to excessive form filling. The government listed 1 300 compani...

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