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Bolsonaro is taken to the hospital due to abdominal pain, the income tax bill should be put to a vote in the House in August, and Francisco Emerson Maximiano and Emanuela Medrades testify in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2021

The changes to the income tax bill proposed by Deputy Celso Sabino were well received in Congress. The bill that deals with the spending ceiling for public servants’ salaries returns to the Senate after being edited in the House. The Senate may vote on the bill that reinstates free TV and radio t...

​MPC: No surprises, unsurprisingly
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 19%, as expected. There is no material change in the new statement, as regards the key paragraphs on inflation and monetary policy outlook.

​From US inflation to Philippine monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

For months now, global markets have been fretting about rising US inflation with anxieties running higher following upside surprises in the headline rate and news after the Fed’s June policy meeting that its next interest rate increase may come in 2023, a year ahead of what was earlier signaled. ...

Nord Stream 2 will be completed in summer 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

The head of Nord Stream 2 AG which is building the gas pipeline said that the project will finish in August 2021. The pipeline meets the licensing requirement. It should be functioning by the end of 2021.The pipeline is due to increase Russian gas supplies to Germany by 100%. Other Western Europe...

India to make 300 million doses of the Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jul 2021

On July 13 Moscow announced a deal with Serum Institute to make Sputnik V. The first doses will produced in September 2021. The Russian Direct Investment Fund is behind Sputnik V. Russia is delighted with the uptake of Sputnik V seeing it as a soft power victory. It is also a financial gain. Sell...

New land market, seesawing IMF relations and inflation-driven recovery
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Jul 2021

The launch, at long last, of a farmland market in Ukraine was probably the most remarkable event of the past month. The law was passed a year ago but has only now come into effect. Many political players have been trying to derail this reform, and Ukrainians were never certain that the market wou...

​Macroeconomic policy remains “defensive”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2021

The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s foreign debt reached $471.4 bn as of July 1. It was slightly up from $467.4 bn six months ago. Compared with July 1, 2020, foreign debt decreased as it accounted for $483.4 bn back then. Note that as of April 1, 2021, 26.6% of Russia’s foreign ...

Luiz Fux meets with Bolsonaro to diffuse tensions, Rodrigo Pacheco may announce his candidacy, and Bolsonaro appoints André Mendonça to the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2021

Tension between President Bolsonaro and the STF is building as the conflict over paper ballots continues. Senator Pacheco will likely lay low in the short term so as not to affect the legislative agenda. Deputy Celso Sabino may submit a preliminary report on Tax Reform today. Bolsonaro issued 14 ...

We revise down inflation projections
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jul 2021

Inflation slowed down sharply in June, to 9 percent month on month from 27 percent in May. We had projected 17 percent. Public spending remained in check, as we anticipated, but the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) was much more restrictive than we expected. The central bank failed to loosen ba...

​Negative watch
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jul 2021

Yesterday, FitchRatings revised to negative its outlook on the Philippine’s credit rating. The revision signals a possible downgrade of the sovereign’s “BBB” investment grade rating over a one- to two-year horizon.According to the published commentary,[1] the negative watch reflects “downside ris...

Economics: Despite a massive decline, a recovery in tourism is well underway, but pandemic-related restrictions could pose renewed challenges
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2021 · 2 responses

Tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the pandemic in Mexico. Tourism GDP posted an annual 47.7% decline in the second quarter of 2020 since it was not until March 2020 when authorities began to massively apply restrictive measures in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The largest dec...

Politics: After election losses, the PRI needs to redefine its role
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2021

What was once Mexico’s indisputably dominant party, the PRI, now faces an uncertain future. How it defines its proposals and outlook and its relation to the Lopez Obrador government will affect the future of the party and possibly Mexican politics as a whole. Following the results of the June...

The government increases domestic borrowing amid widening federal budget surplus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2021

Minfin reported that it continued to play the same tune in June and 1H21 as a whole as the federal budget surplus widened and net domestic borrowing increased. In gross terms, the government borrowed on the local market around R1.5 trln, while in net terms the figure was still impressive – around...

Russian macro: economic policy to change as inflation remains too high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jul 2021

Recent developments in Russia showed that m-o-m inflation has stabilized, but at a high level, so that y-o-y inflation increased and reached 6.5% in June, as monthly inflation varied between 0.67% and 0.78% in 1Q21 and between 0.58% and 0.74% in 2Q21. Inflation was expected to accelerate but not ...

Election in Moldova leads to victory for pro EU party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2021

On July 11 a parliamentary election resulted in victory for the ruling PAS Party. PAS is the party of President of Sandu. PAS won 53% of the vote. PAS will likely win a majority of the seats. Sandu said her victory meant the end of kleptocracy. The country is plagued by pecculation. BECS is the p...

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