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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

On realism, fantasy and pain
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jul 2020

With the publication of the new Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, we finally have a clear picture of expectations for impacts on revenues, the deficit, debt and financing. The NCG deficit is projected to soar to 8.2% of GDP this year, from 2.5% in 2019. Fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 20...

Holland sues Russia over MH17
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2020

On July 10 the Netherlands filed a case against Russia at the European Court of Human Rights. Russia is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights and is subject to the jurisdiction of the court.The Dutch alleged that the Malaysia Airlines flight was shot down over Ukraine in 2013 by ...

Revising down inflation projections
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jul 2020

Inflation slowed to 13 percent in June, according to our estimates, down from 53 percent in May. That’s consistent with the low-inflation rate scenario laid out in our June report. Slower rates of money supply growth and bolivar depreciation and weak consumer spending helped constrain inflation. ...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap up:Recent data suggests that economy recovery has stalled: Credit card purchases in the first week of July actually declined by 1.6% compared to the previous week, and are down 9.5% YTD. The Google Mobility Index points to stability in leisure/retail, 17...

The season of spin doctors
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2020

Upon a positive ruling by High Court of Appeals, President Erdogan quickly ordered the reconversion of Hagia Sophia to a mosque by July 24th. While Western press may view the decision as the death sentence of secularism in Turkey and sign of Erdogan’s undisputable control over Turkish politics, t...

Russian mining company disputes arbitrary fine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2020

On July 8 Nornickel said that it would challenge the government's 'request' to pay USD 2.05 billion to clean up a diesel spill in the Arctic. The company said the damage is not as extensive as the government claims. The company is willing to pay for the actual damage caused but the company said t...

Russia might resume international flights from July 15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2020

Russia might resume international flights from July 15. On July 10 the deputy prime minister said that Russia is negotiating with other governments to recommence flights from July 15. People would only be allowed into Russia if they are coming from a country with under 40 coronavirus cases per 10...

Mourão seeks to mitigate wear on environmental policy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2020

Today, Vice President Hamilton Mourão, head of the Amazon Council, said that the deforestation warnings in the region in June occurred because measures to contain it began too “late”. According to Mourão, Operation Green Brazil ideally would have started in December, 2019. Measures to prevent...

EU offers USD 147 million package to Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020

On July 10 the EU announced that it has approved to aid to Moldova to help it service its debts. USD 11 million of this is a grant and USD 22 million is a loan. The loan is low interest and very long term. The EU took into account the impact of coronavirus on the country. There is a separate USD ...

Kazakhstan disputes claim of COVID-19 surge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020 · 1 response

On July 9 China warned its citizens that coronavirus is rising alarmingly in several Kazakh cities. The Kazakh Government vehemently denied this. The cities are Atyrau, Aktobe and Shymkent. The government acknowledges hundreds of pneumonia cases in these cities. That is very strange for this time...

​GULF WEEKLY: PMIs rise with reopenings, Dubai firms junked and UAE government restructured
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil demand remains uncertain but OPEC+ will raise August output, and Libyan exports are restarting. * PMIs rose in most of the region and signaled a return to expansion ...

Current account surplus narrowed in 2Q20 but is set to widen in 2H20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020

The Russian Central Bank reported that in 1H20, the current account surplus was at $22.3bn, which was a little different from the surplus in 1Q20 ($21.7). This implies that in 2Q20, the current account surplus was at near-zero ($0.6bn). Note that these estimates are preliminary and may change goi...

Where to Philippine peso?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020

During Wednesday’s pre-State of the Nation Address (SONA) that focused on the Duterte administration’s economic achievements this past year, one chart in particular caught our attention. Presented by BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno, the bar chart shows the Philippine peso alongside eight other east ...

US sanctions and the RMB
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2020

Reuters has reported that the Chinese banks are considering alternatives to the US dollar in case the US imposes sanctions on the banks for their support of the National Security Law in Hong Kong. As Reuters noted in an article posted on July 10: "In worst-case scenarios under consideration by...

The military party speaks up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

In his July 5, Independence Day, speech Vladimir Padrino, ratified as minister of Defense for sixth year in a row, positioned the Armed Forces (FANB) as an anti-imperialist, revolutionary, and Bolivarian corps that will never allow the democratic opposition led by Juan Guaidó to exert political p...

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