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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Industrial recovery is underway, but remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Industrial activity in May 2021 posted a mere 0.1% seasonally adjusted monthly increase. This paltry result can mainly be attributed to a 0.7% contraction in manufacturing. Percentage changes relative to a year ago can often appear impressive, but can also be deceiving given the low and distorted...

Chile's Presidential Primaries
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

Chile held presidential primaries on Sunday, with the participation of two main political agglomerations: Chile Vamos, made up of the two traditional parties of the right, National Renovation and UDI, and Apruebo Dignidad, composed of the Communist Party and the Frente Amplio (Broad Front). A bit...

Bolsonaro should return to work this week, Dep. Celso Sabino participates in a debate on income tax reform, and André Mendonça’s appointment to the STF continues to be analyzed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Bolsonaro criticized the electoral fund approved in the LDO and will likely veto the measure. Deputy Celso Sabino believes that lower corporate taxes will stimulate the economy and generate more revenue for the government. The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Senate should conclude Mendo...

Inflation in June: no real surprises this time
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Inflation came in as expected, with core inflation reaching 1.2% y/y. There are signs that some transitory inflation is dissipating. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to hover around the low end of the target as pressure for appreciation continues, offset by higher housing rental prices

Politics: PAN at a crossroads for defining its identity and consolidating its voter support
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2021

The PAN is now Mexico’s main opposition party. It has displaced the PRI, which in the June 6 mid-term elections lost all eight of the gubernatorial races in states it governed and has now dropped to third place among the country’s political parties. The PAN’s strong ideological and programmati...

Russia launches new hypersonic missile
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

On July 19 the Tsirkon cruise missile was tested again. Putin boasted that this weapon is invincible. Over the past few years Russia has said that its new generation of weapons would give it a decisive advantage in any conflict. The Defense Ministry was eager to distribute videos demonstrating th...

In frozen limbo
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jul 2021

Despite warnings from the Taliban, Ankara will dispatch troops to defend the Kabul Airport, though the timing is vague. The new appointee to become the US Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, has received mostly positive reviews in the Turkish press. There are unconfirmed reports of a deal betwee...

South Africa's Week of Insurrection, Crime Against the State, Instability and Massive Destruction of Economic Infrastructure
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 17 Jul 2021 · 1 response

What began as an unexpected outbreak of violence and looting at the beginning of this week is now officially classified as "a failed insurrection", coordinated by a network of political leaders and their associates in the national security structures of the country. On the face of it, the outbrea...

Coronavirus in Russia worse than ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2021

On July 16 Russia suffered 799 coronavirus deaths. That is the highest ever figure. The trajectory is ever upwards. The official figure is 270,000 deaths thus far. The situation is so bad that the government has stopped publishing a daily update on the number of active cases. The reason given is ...

Bolsonaro is in stable condition and does not require surgery, the LDO was approved and Congress enters a formal recess on July 18, and a number of matters will be put on hold
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2021

The electoral fund approved in the LDO is about three times the amount approved in 2019/2020. The Pandemic CPI will be put on hold during the recess. The truckers' digital transport document was approved in the House yesterday.

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ compromise pending, Sultan visits Saudi, Fitch stabilizes Saudi outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE is willing to support an OPEC+ extension to end-2022 in return for a 0.5m b/d hike in its baseline. * JCPOA talks appear to be stalled until at least mid-August. * Coronavirus rates are improving in Kuwait and Oma...

Inflation in June: no surprises this time; core inflation remains low
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jul 2021

June’s CPI came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y (up from 1.5% last month), in line with domestic forecasters (and our forecast), although Bloomberg had zero m/m as the consensus. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) reached 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). As expected, the h...

Russia building icebreakers for the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2021

Shipyards in St Petersburg are building four nuclear powered icebreakers. Russia wants to assert its control over the Arctic. Global warming has meant that more of that ocean is navigable for more of the year than ever. Moscow hopes that it might even become navigable year round with icebreakers....

Bolsonaro was taken to São Paulo for treatment due to abdominal pain, the Pandemic CPI was extended for an additional 90 days, and the LDO is put to a vote in the Joint Budget Committee, the House and the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2021

If President Bolsonaro eventually requires surgery, Vice President Mourão will return from his trip to Angola to take over the presidency. Cristiano Carvalho, attorney of Davati Medical Supply in Brazil, testifies in the CPI. Yesterday, the House approved a bill that prohibits evictions until the...

Breakthrough with judicial reform: parliament approves reboot of the High Council of Justice
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jul 2021

We are witnessing a real breakthrough with judicial reform. We wrote previously that on June 29th parliament gave green light for reload of the High Qualification Commission of Justice (HQCJ) with dominating role of international experts in selection of the HQCJ members. The HQCJ is like an HR de...

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