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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Polls point to stability for Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2020

The DataPoder360 poll found that the negative (bad/very bad) assessment of the Jair Bolsonaro government dropped by two points (48% to 46%), a number that is within the margin of error. Positive evaluations (excellent/good), in turn, remained stable at 29%, as did “regular” evaluations (20%). Whe...

Ecuador webinar featuring Magdalena Barreiro - On the road to the presidential election amid Covid-19 and debt renegotiations
ECUADOR · Report · 09 Jul 2020 · 2 responses

In our webinar, live from Quito, former Finance Minister Magdalena Barreiro discusses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on Ecuador’s macro, political and fiscal situation, as well as the latest developments in the ongoing debt renegotiations​.

Russian governor charged with murder
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020 · 1 response

On July 9 the Governor of Khabarovsk Region has been arrested on suspicion of several murders. Governor Sergei Furgal is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party. Despite its name this party is seen as a very nationalistic. It is the third biggest party in the country and is pro-Putin.Furgal is a...

US penalizes Amazon for Crimean trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

On July 8 the US Government fined Amazon for sending goods to Crimea. The US has sanctions on companies operating there and a ban on trade with the peninsula. Crimea is recognized by most countries as Ukrainian territory but it has been claimed by Russia since 2014. Amazon has been fined USD 113 ...

Denmark green lights Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

On July 6 Denmark granted permission for a pipeline from Russia under Denmark's territorial waters. The pipeline is being laid with less sophisticated technology than originally planned because US sanctions have made it impossible to access the most advanced ships. Only 120 km of pipeline remain ...

Fiscal policy does not have much room left to support the economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

The central government's cash deficit rose to HUF 1837bn or an annualised 8% of GDP in H1 after one of the highest ever monthly deficits, HUF 786bn, was reported for June. Even after adjustment for the EU reimbursement gap, an approach to bring the cash number closer to the accrual-terms ESA-2010...

AFP reform passes first major hurdle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The House of Deputies last night voted 95-25 (with 31 abstentions) in favor of going forward with a constitutional amendment that allows Chileans to claim up to 10% of their private pensions savings. The bill will now move on to the Deputies’ Constitution Committee, and then on to the Senate, but...

Inflation accelerated but with no surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

Rosstat announced that in June inflation accelerated to 3.2% y-o-y, as it reached 0.2% m-o-m. This acceleration looks moderate, as retail sales seemingly started to recover as of lockdown restrictions have been eased. Note that in June 2019, monthly inflation was at zero. It was rather unusual fo...

China virus check – week ending July 6
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal use in the power industry was largely unchanged. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended slightly higher but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion rose sl...

After contamination, Bolsonaro tries to build a narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2020

After confirming his coronavirus contamination, President Jair Bolsonaro has started to create a narrative that could mobilize his supporters. Yesterday, Bolsonaro posted a video on social media in which he takes a hydroxychloroquine pill, stating that he feels “very well” after three doses of th...

BAHRAIN: Q1 GDP outturn is worse than it initially looks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2020

Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -1.1% y/y in Q1, similar to Saudi's but much less than Dubai's. One bright point was growth in oil & gas, due to increased gas output to power Alba’s expansion. Hotels contracted by a stunning -68% y/y, which is probably a substantial overestimate. However, the rest of...

Abinader has been proclaimed elected President and PRM won absolute majority in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Jul 2020

The Central Electoral Board proclaimed Luis Abinader and Raquel Peña as elected president and vice president. Abinader and his ballot partner obtained 52.5% of the votes, Gonzalo Castillo and Margarita Cedeño (current VP) of the PLD and allies obtained 37.5% and former President Leonel Fernández ...

June CPI-inflation marginally below expectation, no big deal for central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2020

The headline rate of CPI-inflation jumped to 2.9% yoy in June from 2.2% yoy in May, ending up just slightly below the 3% average analyst expectation. This anticipated sharp pick-up was clearly due to a 9.3% mom recovery by fuel prices (which were still down by 11.6% yoy), so it is essentially the...

Bolsonaro tested positive for COVID-19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro announced on July 7 that he tested positive for the coronavirus. In an announcement made live on TV Brasil, CNN and Rede Record, Bolsonaro said he has a fever of 38ºC, but that his temperature is already decreasing. He also reported that he had been feeling uneasy and tir...

Really awful data out on May industry and tourism today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020

The Statistical Office (KSH) is making a good contribution to the quantification of the Covid-19 economic impact this week. Earlier today, they released industrial output and guest nights spent at hotels for May. Their freshly reported data is really quite poor in the sense that although they ref...

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