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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 7
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The opposition will attempt to file a request for a Joint CPI on the payroll loan fraud, the Lower House installs a committee to review the income tax bill, and the vote on new concessions and the PPP framework is expected
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2025
There are already enough signatures to create a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the fraud involving payroll loans for INSS retirees and pensioners. The opposition will attempt to file the request today, May 6. The installation of the Special Committee to analyze th...
Disinflation and weak growth, revisions of fiscal plans, and volatility in politics
POLAND · Report · 06 May 2025
Inflation in Poland shows signs of easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts are high. Economic recovery remains sluggish, with weak retail sales, manufacturing output, and most confidence indicators. The government has adjusted fiscal plans due to lower tax revenues, increasing the deficit ...
Economics: Trouble ahead despite some marginal upticks in the 1Q preliminary GDP report
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025
While last week’s preliminary GDP report for the first quarter may have marginally surpassed some expectations, its scant improvement appears to mask deeper economic problems. Robust numbers for January allowed the agricultural sector to deliver most of the economic growth last quarter, as indust...
Politics: Telecommunications reform poses the risk of an economic and political step backward
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025
A new telecommunications bill has sparked an uproar over the issue of censorship and freedom of expression in relation to the media. The proposed legislation replaces the Telecommunications Law approved in 2013 during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. While many of Peña Nieto’s policies have s...
Saudi Q1 fiscal - no sign of spending cuts and a record increase in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 May 2025
The Ministry of Finance is getting timelier with its fiscal releases, publishing Q1 today, just five weeks after the quarter end and a week before Aramco's earnings. I will include some more analysis in the weekly report, but a few quick takeaways: The decline in oil revenue was as expected, give...
April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025
Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2025
OVERVIEW Lula's plans face a hostile reality The Lula administration has found its helmsman in marketing strategist-turned-minister Sidônio Palmeira, making it clear that everything will be done to ensure the PT remains in power beyond 2027. This plan, however, will face serious challenges,...
Party realignments target the 2026 elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025
Brasília is expected to see more activity this week, following last week's holidays. In the Lower House, a Special Committee will be installed to analyze the personal income tax bill. In the Senate, discussions begin on the Management Committee (a part of Tax Reform regulation). Former President ...
Government bond issuance slows amid narrowing deficit and surplus funds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2025
Israel’s Ministry of Finance announced plans to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable local bonds during May 2025, a moderate increase from NIS 9.81 billion in April but still well below the average monthly issuance of nearly NIS 16 billion recorded throughout 2024 and early 2025. The decline in iss...
The opposition pushes a Joint CPI to investigate the pension fund scandal, Congress debates the income tax exemption bill amid political maneuvering in the House, and the Senate begins hearings on the Tax Reform Steering Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025
The opposition may file a request to establish a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the diversion of more than R$ 6 billion from INSS retirees and pensioners. The scandal led to the resignation of Carlos Lupi from the Ministry of Social Security. The Speaker of the Lo...
Administrative price regulation will most likely be extended and broadened after end-May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 May 2025
Economy Minister Nagy has made a considerable number of public appearances on the existing administrative price regulation applied to the retail prices of certain food items recently. The summary of his statements must be as follows, we think: - The limitation of the retail price margins used at ...
No sequel to Duterte 1.0?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 May 2025
What is at crucial stake in the forthcoming mid-term election on May 12 in the Philippines is not so much the large number of elective positions, and that is 18,280. It is rather the number of senators that Vice-President Sara Duterte could help land in the magic 12. Led by Speaker Martin Romuald...
Public finances appear solid in Q1, but a detailed examination reveals their fragility going forward.
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 May 2025
As of March, the fiscal deficit declined sharply. Revenues increased significantly and spending remained on a downward trend, although more moderately. Notwithstanding it is unlikely the annual fiscal targets will be met. In the first quarter of 2025, public finances showed significant improvemen...
A summer in purgatory
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 May 2025
The “narrow corridor” of 2025 that we’ve long been referring to, that of a CBRT traveling a tricky path between edgy politics and tenuous investor sentiment, has gotten narrower and more precarious quite a bit sooner than we anticipated. In this brief update to our previous quarterly/forecast ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP revised up by 14%, $7.4bn in debt issued across GCC, Eric Trump launches GCC deals, Oman discusses US FTA
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil traded lower in advance of an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow that could accelerate the taper. * Despite positive noises after a 3rd US-Iran meeting in Oman, Trump threatened secondary sanctions. * The IMF’s REO forecasts see ...