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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...

Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...

The uncertain path to 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The House may vote on the bill regarding the new rules for the payment of parliamentary fund transfers. In the Senate, leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the carbon market bill. Elmar Nascimento may announce his withdrawal from the candidacy for the presidency of the House. The Central B...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

OVERVIEW THE CONFIDENCE CRISIS STILL WAITS FOR AN ADEQUATE RESPONSE The decline of the Workers' Party (PT) in the municipal elections at the end of October added a significant element to the political landscape. The major winners were the Social Democratic Party (PSD), known as the “Kassab...

October inflation: some good, some bad news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 2.9%, m/m, in October, markedly exceeding consensus forecasts of around 2.5%, with the 12-month rate nevertheless falling to 48.6% from 49.4%, on the back of continuing base effects. Monthly PPI inflation was a more modest 1.3%, with the 12-month rat...

It's all about politics and the strength of our institutions as Jamaica changes its Finance Minister
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The long wait of over two months to see who would replace Jamaica’s Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke ended last week, literally as he was at the airport on his way to Washington on Wednesday to take up his new position at the IMF at the very end of October. Prime Minister Andrew Holness announce...

Haddad canceled his trip to Europe, the Copom will meet to decide on the basic interest rate, and the House may vote on the parliamentary fund transfers bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, at President Lula’s request, canceled the trip he was scheduled to make this week to Europe. This has raised expectations that the fiscal package measures will be announced in the coming days. Amid fiscal uncertainty, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee ...

The War on Drugs: Did Duterte testify against himself?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Nov 2024

As a cornerstone of his presidential campaign, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, in his inaugural address on June 30, 2016, vowed to exert relentless and sustained efforts in the campaign against drugs and criminality. This appeared to be his priority as he delegated the formulation o...

Markets will follow the fiscal approval process closely
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Nov 2024

1. The 4% deficit target has been approved by the cabinet, but the full implementation of adjustments appears unlikely. 2. Optimism regarding a decline in hostilities and a possible ceasefire has supported the long end of the curve, but much will depend on fiscal credibility. 3. Recent econ...

Risk premium declines on optimism regarding a cease-fire, but much will depend on fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Nov 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to exchange missile fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and continues its ground operation. A lower-level war continues in Northern Gaza. Apparently, a cease-fire framework with Hezbollah and Lebanon appears increasingly likely, while the impasse with Hamas continues. The...

Audentes Fortuna Iuvat
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2024

Turkey’s bombastic and excitable pundit community discussed nothing but the peace offering of MHP leader Mr. Bahceli to Kurds. President Erdogan is generally supportive of Bahceli, but has so far refused to take the leadership of a new Peace Process, as talks on addressing Kurds’ grievances are c...

The 2024-2025 economic reform's timeline: two steps forward, still four to go
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Summary We discuss the key reforms that will take place during the Mulino administration. The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRSF) and the Public Sector Budget for 2025 were approved last week, with political setbacks. The Legislative Assembly (AN) introduced changes in the proposal of the Ministry o...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips after Israeli strikes, FII convenes in Riyadh, GCC-NZ FTA signed, Dubai announces budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped after Israeli strikes on Iran did not target oil facilities. * The IMF forecasts fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2025 from $45 for Qatar to $125 for Bahrain. * The GCC signed a rare FTA with New Zealand, a mont...

The economy keeps growing amid soaring domestic demand and overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 9M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 4.9% y-o-y. It grew by 3.0% in September and posted clear signs of a deceleration. The latter looks organic amid a high base in 2H23. Industrial output ex...

Congress will host the G20 event next week, the House may vote on the bill that establishes new rules for parliamentary fund transfers, and the Copom will decide on the new basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Next week, the National Congress will host the 10th Summit of Presidents of the G20 Parliaments from November 6 to 8. The event’s theme is “Parliaments for a Fair World and a Sustainable Planet.” Due to this, access to Congress will be highly restricted. On Monday or Tuesday, November 4 or 5, the...

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