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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The shekel appreciates on US election results
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Ceasefires (in Gaza as well as Lebanon) do not appear to be on the immediate horizon. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel, resulting in some damage and casualties. The immediate risk is from Iran, which...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is on course to tame its fiscal excesses
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Finance has presented a draft fiscal framework for 2025 with a headline deficit of 3% of GDP or UZS 49.3tn (US$ 3.7bn). This estimate is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditure of the state, the country's development fund, and 18 extra-budgetary funds. It will ...

Negotiations on spending cuts continue, the bill on parliamentary fund transfers may be put to a vote, and the Senate CCJ will resume the public hearings on Tax Reform next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Negotiations around spending cuts continue today. President Lula is scheduled to meet this afternoon to discuss the spending cut package with government leaders. According to the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), the bill regarding parliamentary fund transfers wil...

Trump and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2024

While we don’t know the details of President-elect Trump’s plan for China, we can expect increased financial sanctions, higher tariffs, and a generally hostile climate toward trade and investment. These policies will heighten already sharp tensions within the Chinese economy and politics. The ele...

Between a Rock and a Hard Place
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2024 · 2 responses

There were no surprises in the Copom’s decision: as expected, the committee raised the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 10.75% to 11.25% per year, without providing further indications about its next steps or the total extent of the monetary tightening cycle....

Ukraine's Peace Prospects under a Trump Presidency: A View from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Another sleepless night in Kyiv, with air alerts lasting over 8 hours. For more than two months, nearly every night has been interrupted, with only rare exceptions. It feels like a deliberate tactic, KGB-style, to exhaust people by depriving them of sleep. After all, the chief barbarian from the ...

Monthly output and demand data for September substantiate weak Q3 GDP figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

While Mr. Orbán appears to be absolutely delighted by the outcome of the US presidential election, the macro analyst is forced to be in a somewhat less enthusiastic mood today. Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, -5.8% yoy, making the Q3 yoy growth figure -5.4%, the worst so far this year. In Jan...

The Budget Execution Board meets to discuss the fiscal measures package, Lula said in an interview that the spending cuts cannot affect the most vulnerable, and there is also pressure to increase spending
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2024

According to Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the meeting to finalize fiscal measures has been scheduled for this morning. At that time, President Lula will meet with the ministers that comprise the Budget Execution Board (JEO). Yesterday, in an interview with Rede TV!, Lula stated that fiscal a...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Interest rates keep rising, and it happens not only due to rising inflation and the key rate hikes but also due to some regulatory measures. One problem is associated with banks’ need to comply with liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), as earlier this year, the CBR started to remove “reliefs” for the ...

Discussions continue on spending cut measures, more congressional caucuses announce their support for Hugo Motta, and the CCJ extended the discussion timeline on the Tax Reform regulation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Internal discussions on spending cut measures continue. There is a chance these measures may be announced later this week. New congressional caucuses formally announced their support for Hugo Motta's (Republicanos-PB) candidacy yesterday: the PSB, PDT, and the PSDB/Cidadania federation. Together,...

Implications of Trump's win for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2024

Back in September, I shared some reflections on the potential implications of the US election for the GCC and wider region, as well as reviewing the history of relations between the Gulf States and the Trump and Biden Administrations. There will be lots more to unpick on this in the coming weeks ...

Bulgaria holds 7th election in three years as the Russia question divides the electorate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Bulgaria’s 7th election in the last three years has not yielded drastically different results from the last election in June, and a hung parliament is still likely, with some parties holding pro-Russian views. Bulgarian companies have been sanctioned for supporting Russia’s military, as Bulgaria'...

Haddad is expected to announce a package of measures by the end of the week, negotiations continue on the parliamentary fund transfers bill, and the Senate may vote on the carbon market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance released a statement at the end of the day, noting that during yesterday's meeting, the country’s fiscal situation was presented and understood, as well as the proposals under discussion. The measures are expected to be announced by the end of the week, although...

Inflation accelerates in October, as budgetary spending catches up with amended plan
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in October, m-o-m inflation accelerated to 0.9% (versus 0.4% in September). Inflation y-o-y climbed to 8.5% (from 8.3% in September). Services prices grew by 14.3%, inflation in the non-food segment reached 7.8%, and food prices were up by a mere 4....

Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...

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