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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: November 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2024

-Russia continues a steady advance along the front. -Ukraine makes bold pronouncements on victory plans. -North Korean troops are alleged to be readied for war in Ukraine. -BRICS summit is held in Russia with many world leaders in attendance. -Moldova and Georgia hold bitt...

Prime rate holds at 13.0%; NBU signals readiness for potential rate hike
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

On October 31st, the NBU Board, as anticipated, kept the prime rate steady at 13.0% for the third consecutive time. With inflation accelerating (+1.5% m/m and +8.6% y/y in September) and the challenges of a third winter under missile and drone strikes, the NBU has little choice but to remain in a...

Webinar replay: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the CCA's political and economic outlook. What will Georgia's outlook be following its war or peace parliamentary elections? Is Armenia's diamond bonanza over? How did Uzbekistan and Tajikistan manage to increase remittances and imp...

Slide presentation: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Get insight into the Caucasus and Central Asia region's political and economic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook".

The Central Bank lowers the monetary policy rate once again
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

For the third consecutive month, the Central Bank has decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 6.50% in October to 6.25% annually. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) has decreased from 7.00% to 6.75% per yea...

Decentralization dream could become a fiscal nightmare
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

Colombian Congress has a relatively good track record in fiscal prudence: an insane number of tax reforms have been approved over the last three decades; two fiscal rules and a fiscal responsibility law have been enacted; and fiscal sustainability was enshrined in the Constitution in 2011. There ...

A date for budget cuts has not yet been set, the House concluded the vote on the bill on the management of IBS, and the discussion of Arthur Lira’s succession continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2024

There is speculation that the government’s announcement of budget cuts could range between R$40 billion and R$60 billion. However, according to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, no date has been set for announcing these measures. Yesterday, the Lower House concluded the vote on the bill t...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement indicates the government recorded a primary budget surplus in FY2023/24 for the first time in 15 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Oct 2024

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, who has remained in his position during South Africa’s transition from being sorely governed by the African National Party (ANC) to a Government of National Unity (GNU), presented an update on government finances since the presentation of the country’s main Budg...

The start of the new government
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Oct 2024

On October 20, 2024, the changeover of the Indonesian presidency proceeded smoothly from President Joko Widodo to General Prabowo Subianto, who becomes the eighth President of Indonesia. The new president delivered a clear message of what will be the main objective of his presidency. The chang...

Haddad says discussions on spending cuts are progressing, Lira announced his support for Hugo Motta in the House, and Pacheco announced a schedule for voting on the Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2024

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that discussions surrounding the spending cut agenda are progressing. The Budget Execution Board (JEO) is expected to meet this week to address the spending cut measures. As anticipated, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), announced ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024

Oct 16 National Nuclear Company: Kazatomprom and German Siemens have signed a strategic agreement on partial localization of equipment production in Kazakhstan. Samruk-Kazyna: The Fund and the Chinese CITIC Group have agreed on strategic cooperation. Banking regulation: The Agency for Regulation ...

First reaction to this morning's report of horrendous preliminary Q3 GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024 · 1 response

First the facts: Q3 real GDP growth on sda basis was reported by KSH as -0.7% qoq, -0.7% yoy, implying +0.7% yoy growth in the first three quarters of 2024. This was by 0.6%-point qoq, 1.1%-point yoy below the median analyst expectation (and even more below our own forecast, which happened to be ...

MoF releases optimistic GDP forecast in 2025, as basis for tax revenue forecast in the budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024

The Ministry of Finance expects growth of 4.3 percent in 2025 (0.4 percent in 2024), assuming an end to the fighting at the current intensity by the end of the year, and a gradual recovery in 2025. This forecast is more optimistic than that of the Bank of Israel, 3.8 percent, ours (3.4 percent), ...

Argentina’s improving macro outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In this report, we review the recent growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The recent macroeconomic activity indicators have shown an improvement, while the strengthening of the external (accrued) balances allows us to anticipate a relatively stable FX market, with an outlook of a likel...

A mixed performance
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In Costa Rica, praise for national economic management, and early-year successful evaluations from external analysts then embraced by the official discourse, now seem premature, as the country is falling short in several macroeconomic indicators. Economic activity is still increasing nicely, but ...

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