Country Insights

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Weekly Tracker: November 8-14
TURKEY - Report 08 Nov 2015
We start with a very brief overview of the post-election scene. We recap the reasons for AKP’s victory, review the timeline before a new government is formed, and speculate on what we should expect on the economy side of things. As regards the latter, it is too soon to comment on the nature and t...

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Moody's outlook for Ba1 Hungarian sovereign rating went to positive from stable today
HUNGARY - In Brief 06 Nov 2015
At its last scheduled revision date this year, Moody's improved its outlook for Hungary's Ba1 long-term FX debt rating from stable to positive today. The agency said it expects the government debt ratio to continue its moderate downward trend from 76.2% of GDP at end-2014, with less influence fro...

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Looking beyond December
VENEZUELA - Report 06 Nov 2015
With a month to go before the December 6 (“6D”) National Assembly elections and polls showing the opposition’s lead widening, the question is no longer whether the opposition will win but whether it’ll win by a landslide. We expect an absolute majority but not a three-fifths or two-thirds superma...

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Del Pino on Pdvsa's 2016-2017 maturities
VENEZUELA - In Brief 06 Nov 2015
PDVSA President Eulogio del Pino said in a phone interview yesterday, November 5, that the company is considering proposing a renegotiation of the maturities of the bonds due in 2016 and 2017. In our view, his message is quite clear: Pdvsa is working on a market-friendly debt reprofiling exercise...

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Inflation accelerates again in November
VENEZUELA - Report 06 Nov 2015
We forecast the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) accelerating again in November to 13.8 percent from 12.0 percent in October.The year-on-year rate rises to 256.7 percent from 228.1 percent.

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Non-oil exports at $7 billion?
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Nov 2015
President Maduro has been boasting about record non-oil exports for months. Most recently, on November 3, he said that non-oil exports rose to $7 billion in 2015. In our view, non-oil exports are around $3 billion. Most government-owned enterprises are in dire conditions and private companies str...

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What is at Stake in the Bihar Elections
INDIA - Report 05 Nov 2015
The state of Bihar has a population of 100 million, and is important in and of itself. However, the elections in Bihar have come to represent something more. If the BJP wins, this will reinforce the power of the prime minister, it will reaffirm the usefulness of religious polarization as an el...

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Sticking to Our Low-Growth Guns
MEXICO - Report 05 Nov 2015
A surprising rise in the monthly GDP proxy for August showed a rebound in the 12-month growth rate, for both the seasonally adjusted (+2.8%) and the original series (+2.6%). The expansion was led by a 7.7% rise in primary sector output and, more importantly, a 3.4% increase in tertiary activity. ...

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You say you'll change the constitution. Well, you know.
CHILE - Report 04 Nov 2015
Arguing that the current constitution is illegitimate, President Michelle Bachelet has outlined the process and timeline for drafting a new one. It will consist of several stages, including public consultation and a congressional decision on an approval mechanism. While the president’s insiste...

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Minister Herrera Assures Payment of Global Bonds 2015
ECUADOR - In Brief 04 Nov 2015
Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera announced today that financing needs for next year's budget will be around $6.6 billion. According to the Minister sources for $4.5 billion are already identified: $2 b coming from multilateral institutions (World Bank, IDB, CAF) and $1.5b from China. The govern...

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Holding Pattern
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 04 Nov 2015
Anyone tracking the Philippine economy would by now have his eyes on May 9, 2016.More than who will be the next president, the key question for Election Day 2016 is, will he or she have a clear mandate that is beyond challenge?Also, while we expect to see general commitment to policy continuity w...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Nov 2015
The grave and complicated political impasse between the executive and legislative branches has been charging a high price regarding the quality of fiscal policy, aggravating inflation and undermining business and consumer confidence and economic growth.

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Political Revenge Squelched
UKRAINE - Report 04 Nov 2015
Local elections didn’t bring widely expected revenge of populist and pro-Russian parties. Still, the October vote underscored a few interesting trends. First, there was no dominant winner. Though national parties led the pack, dozens of local political forces entered local councils, creating a mi...

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MNB announced a new program to boost bank lending to SMEs
HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Nov 2015
Just as expected, the MNB announced today a variety of new policies, with a view to boosting cheap bank lending to SMEs from January 2016. The program, called Growth Supporting Program (GSP) includes HUF 600n (1.7% of GDP) in new, zero-interest refinancing loans to banks, half in HUF, half denomi...

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Recession and Strong External Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 03 Nov 2015
In 2015 GDP will contract by 3.1% and another 2.7% in 2016. Negative quarterly growth rates should prevail until at least the middle of 2016, meaning the present recession will be one of the longest and deepest in the country’s history. The primary fiscal deficit will be 1.4% of GDP this year,...