Country Insights

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Bachelet is elected President
CHILE - In Brief 15 Dec 2013
Today Michelle Bachelet was elected President of Chile with a 62.16% of the preferences against a 37.83% of Evelyn Matthei. The presidential election exhibited a significant reduction in participation compared to the first round. Under the newly implemented voluntary voting system, of the 13.6 mi...

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The Price of Gasoline
VENEZUELA - In Brief 15 Dec 2013
Shortly after the December 8 elections, the government started hinting at a gasoline price increase coupled with new subsidies to public transport. Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresident, and Haiman El Troudi, Minister of Land Transportation, placed the topic on the public agenda. Rafael Ramirez,...

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A turning point?
UKRAINE - In Brief 15 Dec 2013 2 responses
Yesterday Victor Yanukovitch dismissed three officials who were allegedly responsible for bloody crackdown on the night of November 30. Those three were (a) Oleksandr Popov, Head of Kyiv city administration (Kyiv was not allowed to have major elections and Popov was effectively the ruler of the c...

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Weekly Tracker: December 15-21
TURKEY - Report 15 Dec 2013
Executive Summary New polls show AKP having dropped to 46%, but the party is certain to win most big-city races. PKK leaders are threatening war once again, while Kurdish provinces erupted in protest in response to alleged police killings of three citizens. The Ergenekon-Sledgehammer coup plottin...

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CNI/Ibope Poll: Positive Evaluations Of The Dilma Administration Increase
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Dec 2013
A new CNI/Ibope poll was released today on the Dilma Rousseff administration. Positive evaluations (“great/good”) increased from 37% to 43% (6 points) from September to December, while “regular” evaluations fell from 39% to 35% (4 points) during the same period.Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad...

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Putin’s state of the nation address: main reasons for economic slowdown are internal
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 12 Dec 2013
Today President Putin delivered Russia’s made an annual address to the Federal Assembly. Traditionally the speech covers various topics and includes presidential suggestions to the Government. It was widely expected that major part of the address will cover economy and will include views on stimu...

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Unchanged Policy Stance
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 12 Dec 2013
The BSP took its cue from the US Fed and signaled today a prospective rate hike when the Monetary Board meets next week. The Fed earlier indicated that it may move forward the timetable for ending its stimulus program, with markets projecting a rate hike as early as April 2015 (from July previous...

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The Benefit of the Doubt
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Dec 2013
Executive Summary We wondered before whether the recent appointments suggested a change in economic policy or not. The departure of former Interior Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno and the appointment of Jorge Capitanich as Chief of Cabinet suggested the possibility of a substantial change. After...

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The Central Bank’s Next Move
MEXICO - Report 10 Dec 2013
Executive Summary Mexico’s monetary authority decided last week to leave its TIIE interbank lending rate at 3.5%. Banco de México said it based its decision on the idea that inflation would remain near 3.5% for the balance of the current year and throughout 2014, and then trend lower until inters...

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Growth: Resilient, But Still Unbalanced
TURKEY - Report 10 Dec 2013
Turkish GDP expanded by 4.4% in Q3, y/y, as in the previous quarter, which was better than the consensus as well as our even softer forecast of some 3.5%. The working day and seasonally-adjusted growth was 0.9%, q/q; the latter is now running at a 4-quarter rolling 1.1%, or an annualized rate of ...

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The Final Touches on Energy Reform
MEXICO - Report 10 Dec 2013
Executive Summary After the Party of the PRD abandoned reform talks, the PAN and PRI began to toughen their respective negotiating positions as the political and time constraints that accompany the very final days of the regular session of Congress provide greater incentives to bargain all the mo...

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Our take on the December 8 Elections
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Dec 2013
Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

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Strong Headline, Weak Composition
TURKEY - In Brief 10 Dec 2013
Turkish GDP growth was 4.4% in Q3, y/y, which was higher than forecasts (notably our softer forecast), but composition, though improved over a quarter ago, still leaves a lot to be desired. Growth appears to be driven by private consumption and stock build up, with net exports shaving off some 2....

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Ergenekon convict released, case unraveling
TURKEY - In Brief 09 Dec 2013
Ergenekon convict, journalist and CHP Izmir deputy Mr. Mustafa Balbay was released from an Ankara correctional facility today, as a lower court agreed with the Constitutional Court that his right to a free and fair trial had been violated. In the last Weekly Tracker I had bet against his release,...

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Confused Reactions to a Worsening Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Dec 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GDP result for the third quarter put paid to optimism regarding Brazilian growth. Not only have the perspectives worsened for 2013; the outlook is now more likely for mediocre growth in 2014. If we take stock prices as a leading indicator of growth, they point to acceleratio...