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Polls show wear on Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

Two polls released today, April 3, show wear on President Jair Bolsonaro amid the coronavirus crisis. According to Datafolha, Bolsonaro’s performance is rated as “bad/very bad” by 39% of respondents. The president’s approval rating is at 33%. According to XP/Ipespe, the president’s negative ratin...

​Gulf weekly: Bahrain repays, Qatar looks to issue and oil bounces
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rebounded on hopes of a new OPEC+ deal after a Trump-MBS call. * Coronavirus cases doubled in the Gulf but the growth rate halve...

Russia’s response to the virus update: a mix of reasonable macroeconomic policy and somewhat chaotic measures to support the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

As Russian financial markets bounced back and the ruble strengthened, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the situation may evolve in Russia. Even though oil prices have jumped, they may easily go down if the situation deteriorates globally. In trying to address these issues the ...

Ukraine struggles with coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2020

On April 3 Ukraine announced that coronavirus cases rose 138 in one day. The total is now 942. Only 4400 tests have been carried out in a country of 40 million. Therefore the true coronavirus figure is perhaps much higher. On April 3 a new regulation forbade people from going outside without a ma...

All is relatively dull on the inflation front
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2020 · 1 response

CPI inflation came in at 0.57%, m/m, in March broadly in line with expectations (0.5%), with the 12-month CPI rate hence easing to 11.9% from 12.4% in February. Domestic-PPI inflation came in at 0.87% in the month, which also lowered the 12-month rate to 8.5%, from 9.3% in the previous month (Gra...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Mexico - Economic and governability crises knock on the door
MEXICO · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Live from Mexico City, Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss their forecasts for the country's economy, Pemex’s finances, and the prospects for governability in the current time of global crisis and uncertainty. ​

Bolsonaro wants Provisional Measure approved before emergency aid law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro said he will send a provisional measure (MP) to the National Congress and will await its approval before sanctioning the emergency aid of R$ 600 for informal workers. Although Bolsonaro signed the bill approved by Congress yesterday, the measure is not in force because th...

Russian oil price rock bottom as Rosneft leaves Venezuela
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2020

On April 2 Russian Urals oil fetched USD 18 per barrel. This is the lowest price for several years. Brent crude is selling at up to USD 36 per barrel. Oil exports from Russia are barely making a profit. Rosneft spend USD 5 to produce and refine a barrel of oil. However, tax, export duty and trans...

South Africa has limited firepower to mitigate significant economic fallout from COVID-19
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

On top of the public health crisis that is likely to take place in South Africa from the growing COVID-19 threat, the economic fallout is going to be momentous. Even as he announced the 21-day country lockdown, President Ramaphosa acknowledged that the economy was going to suffer because of conta...

Covid-19 in Venezuela: New challenges, old policies
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Governments and parliaments across the world scramble to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic supporting consumption and easing bank lending. Initiatives and their timing are country-specific, but the overarching goal is to mitigate human suffering and protect the economy in order to allo...

After a controversial video and pressure from Congress, the government announces MP’s aimed at the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2020

After President Jair Bolsonaro changed the tone of his discourse last night, when he acknowledged the seriousness of the pandemic, today he went back to controversy by sharing a week-old video on social media in which a man films an empty food market in Belo Horizonte. In the video, the man says:...

Virus and the Russian economy: making efforts to decouple
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As Russia remains on a week-off regime and people are not supposed to leave their homes, the number of Russians who contracted the virus continued to rise at a high rate in recent days, albeit from a relatively low level (given the size of the country). Around 200,000 Russians who had either retu...

Russia allots USD 18 billion to fight coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

On March 31 Prime Minister Mishustin announced that USD 18 billion has been put aside to spend on COVID-19. Lockdowns in Moscow and St Petersburg have been tightened. In the rest of the country they laxer - though a state of emergency means regions have more power to act, and Moscow is sharing te...

Ukrainian land reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

On March 31 the Ukrainian Parliament passed the land market bill. However, it is not as extensive as President Zelensky had wanted. The bill only allows an individual or company to buy parcels of up to 100 hectares at a time. Communal and state land cannot be sold under the new bill. State land i...

Manufacturing PMI at 29.1, EURHUF at 369.4, the MNB announced major tightening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2020

The manufacturing PMI for March was announced at 29.1, an unprecedented and extremely big drop from 50.1 in February. This pointed to the fact that currently, close to the whole of the domestic car industry has been closed down, including also tyre producers and the related parts of plastics, met...

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