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US sanctions on Russian pipeline alarm Germany
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 20 the US Congress approved further sanctions on Russia. Trump signed the bill. The latest round of sanctions is aimed at the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. The US 11 billion pipeline is from Russia to Germany passing through Denmark's territorial water. The Germans say the sanctions meddles...

Gas transit deal with Russia: extra hryvnia strengthening looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

Ukraine and Russia have reached a deal on gas transit, according to the minutes published at the web-site of the Cabinet. Gazprom will pay $2.9 billion on the Stockholm arbitration. Naftogaz to withdraw any other lawsuits on gas contract 2009. A new 5-years gas transit contract will be signed. In...

Plan to build petrochemical plant in Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

On December 21 it was reported in Vedomosti that Gazprom is planning to construct the world's most northerly petrochemical in Arctic. The plant will produce various types of plastic. The plant will be built on the Yamal Peninsula. This area is where the Bovanenkovo Field is located which is the c...

To lose a lot is to win a little
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Dec 2019 · 1 response

It was 4:00 am of Friday the 20th, and the House of Representatives was still in session debating the new tax reform, known as the “Ley de Crecimiento”. On Monday, few people believed the reform could be approved by the end of the week. Even more, “extra sessions” were added until the 23rd to get...

Ukraine mulls constitutional reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

On December 19 President Zelensky proposed a bill to reform the constitution. He claims the goal is to diffuse power. Regional governors will be replaced by prefects. Prefects will be answerable to the president and not to local councils. A prefect shall serve a single three year term. The smalle...

Will Rebalancing in China Work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2019

We have argued in a previous note that the middle class in China is most likely much narrower than much analysis would suggest. This has important ramifications for rebalancing of the economy – a policy announced repeatedly by the Chinese leadership. I decided to analyze the data concerning retai...

Mixed news in the economy… better news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Dec 2019

The general feeling that the economy is doing poorly in terms of economic activity and job creation was supported by the recent data (2.7 percent growth in QIII and 2.9 percent in the year). Therefore, economic growth for 2019 will be lower than in 2018 (3.7 percent). Retail sales, free trade zon...

The day when nothing happened
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Dec 2019

In fact, a lot has happened yesterday, on Dec 19, on Ukrainian matters. Verkhovna Rada approved amendments to the Election Code killing first-past-the-post (fptp) electoral system which is believed to be malfunctioning in Ukrainian reality. Also yesterday Minister of Energy Oleksiy Orzhel informe...

COSTA RICA: A push to stabilize finances, and confidence
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2019

Costa Rica’s new finance minister Rodrigo Chaves took office November 26th, with a mandate to improve fiscal sustainability, as a requisite for maintaining macroeconomic stability. He considers rebuilding the confidence required to accelerate economic growth an important outcome of sound public f...

Growth was surprisingly driven by net exports in Q3
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Dec 2019

In Q3 2019, GDP growth was driven by improving net exports, a surprising fact in the light of the weak European economy. Another surprise is that the key sector behind this strength was car manufacturing, despite the problems facing German car makers, the dominant force in Hungary’s vehicles indu...

Between Borges and Defcon 3
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2019

One way of characterizing the latest on the external sector is that the factor payments deficit is fully offset by current transfers (remittances), leaving Colombia with a current account balance as big as its trade deficit. This could be a precarious equilibrium. In the event of a new global eco...

Another move, another confusion (at least speaking for myself)
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2019 · 1 response

In a surprise move yesterday after market-close, Turkey’s banking watchdog, the BRSA, introduced a new regulation/restriction on some derivative transactions. As explained in the BRSA statement (link here), this entails the following: “Total notional amount of banks' currency swaps, forwards, opt...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2019

• Relations between the US and Russia are wobbly, with both good and bad signs. • The Ukrainian Conflict continues to calm down but long-term peace is uncertain. • Ukraine is making progress on economic reform, and the PrivatBank issue is now resolved. • Russia has difficult relations with Ger...

Nord Stream 2 sanctions: Ukraine might benefit from extra delay in pipeline construction
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Dec 2019 · 3 responses

On December 17 the US Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, which presumes sanctions for subcontractors building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Russia is trying to build several bypass routes to European countries around Ukraine. Init...

Ukrainians turn away from Russia media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

A report published on December 15 showed that since 2014 Ukraine has been restricting the activities of the Russian media in Ukraine. Over 70 Russian TV channels have been banned. Since 2017 several Russian social networks have been stopped in Ukraine. Russian newspapers hardly sell any copies in...

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