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Maia tries to defuse the institutional climate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2020

In view of the turbulence in the relationship between the Planalto Palace and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Speaker of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), on May 26, at the House plenary, gave a moderate speech and established his position. Carefully and looking for conciliation,...

Is it the end of the world as we know it?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 26 May 2020

Only a handful of countries can claim to have been prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. The Philippines is not one of them. When local transmission began, the government resorted to the only tool it had to contain the outbreak: the lockdown hammer. It used this to close government and business, of...

Russia in April: economic performance is uneven across sectors but doesn’t surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020 · 1 response

Rosstat released preliminary statistics for April and reported that retail was strongly down m-o-m and y-o-y - by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3% respectively. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures will help to come up with a more reliable macroeco...

The MNB appears to be satisfied with its current policies
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2020

The Monetary Council announced no policy change after today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting. In its statement, the Council acknowledged with satisfaction the Q1 GDP data (+2% yoy in sda terms), and confirmed its expectation that adjusted core CPI-inflation (3.8% yoy in April) will decelera...

China virus check – week ending May 25
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion is becoming more even. 3) Expressway traffic is rising at a slow pace. 4) Underground metro rail traffic rising slowly. 5) Little change in freight l...

Institutional noise amid the worsening of the pandemic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro yesterday made a surprise visit to the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGR) to greet Attorney Carlos Vilhena, who took office as the new head of the Attorney General’s Office. Bolsonaro also met with Prosecutor General Augusto Aras. Bolsonaro’s trip to the PGR occurred after...

The latest numbers for the fiscal performance are surprising… for the wrong reasons
PANAMA · Report · 26 May 2020

The Ministry’s projection of the level of nominal GDP for 2020 is US$ 64,000 MM, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the official figure for 2019. We predict deflation of 0.5% for the year; therefore, real GDP, according to the fiscal quarterly data, might decrease by around 3.3% in 2020, a more pessi...

Russia’s pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020

As several influential media sources, such as last week the FT, Bloomberg, The Economist, accused Russia of significantly under-reporting the country’s death toll and suggested that the actual number of the virus-related lethal cases should have been higher by around 70%, the Russian authorities ...

Brazilian Politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2020

Continued repercussions about the video of the April 22 cabinet meeting released by STF Minister Celso de Mello. Bolsonaro sanctions emergency aid for states and municipalities. The Lower House may vote a provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours. Congress installs a working ...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases
ISRAEL · Report · 25 May 2020

The economy continues to return gradually to full activity. - Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. - Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. - Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare to -12.8% in April. April's data re...

Economics: Deep contraction after an inertia of stagnation
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

It is of fundamental importance to consider the differences that separate the current crisis from that of 2009 in terms of their consequences for income levels and, specifically, the percentage of the population that will be pushed into poverty as a result of this immediate experience. Unlike...

Politics: Generalized decline and confrontation
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

The government continues to apply austerity measures instead of any minimally credible plan for mitigating the economic crisis, much less preparing conditions for an eventual recovery. There is no solution in sight for mounting public finance problems, and the president’s insistence that he will ...

A Risk Not Yet on the Market’s Radar Screens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2020 · 3 responses

Because of the deep recession, some policymakers have proposed that the increase in public spending should not be restricted to the authorization obtained from the approval of the “wartime budget”. This is not the stance of Economic Minister Guedes, but this cannot be said about the influential v...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2020

Highlights of the weekly macro Wrap Up 26.5.20 The economy continues to return gradually to full activity Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare t...

Russian RUB hit 10-week high, with demand for bonds up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2020

On May 21 RUB reached its highest level in 10 weeks. The RUB touched 70 to the USD. This is 12% higher than the doldrums of March.The feel good factor is returning. People are willing to take a few risks again. Oil prices have risen a little. EU countries are relaxing lockdown. Demand for oil is ...

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