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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will Rebalancing in China Work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2019

We have argued in a previous note that the middle class in China is most likely much narrower than much analysis would suggest. This has important ramifications for rebalancing of the economy – a policy announced repeatedly by the Chinese leadership. I decided to analyze the data concerning retai...

Mixed news in the economy… better news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Dec 2019

The general feeling that the economy is doing poorly in terms of economic activity and job creation was supported by the recent data (2.7 percent growth in QIII and 2.9 percent in the year). Therefore, economic growth for 2019 will be lower than in 2018 (3.7 percent). Retail sales, free trade zon...

The day when nothing happened
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Dec 2019

In fact, a lot has happened yesterday, on Dec 19, on Ukrainian matters. Verkhovna Rada approved amendments to the Election Code killing first-past-the-post (fptp) electoral system which is believed to be malfunctioning in Ukrainian reality. Also yesterday Minister of Energy Oleksiy Orzhel informe...

COSTA RICA: A push to stabilize finances, and confidence
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2019

Costa Rica’s new finance minister Rodrigo Chaves took office November 26th, with a mandate to improve fiscal sustainability, as a requisite for maintaining macroeconomic stability. He considers rebuilding the confidence required to accelerate economic growth an important outcome of sound public f...

Growth was surprisingly driven by net exports in Q3
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Dec 2019

In Q3 2019, GDP growth was driven by improving net exports, a surprising fact in the light of the weak European economy. Another surprise is that the key sector behind this strength was car manufacturing, despite the problems facing German car makers, the dominant force in Hungary’s vehicles indu...

Between Borges and Defcon 3
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2019

One way of characterizing the latest on the external sector is that the factor payments deficit is fully offset by current transfers (remittances), leaving Colombia with a current account balance as big as its trade deficit. This could be a precarious equilibrium. In the event of a new global eco...

Another move, another confusion (at least speaking for myself)
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2019 · 1 response

In a surprise move yesterday after market-close, Turkey’s banking watchdog, the BRSA, introduced a new regulation/restriction on some derivative transactions. As explained in the BRSA statement (link here), this entails the following: “Total notional amount of banks' currency swaps, forwards, opt...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2019

• Relations between the US and Russia are wobbly, with both good and bad signs. • The Ukrainian Conflict continues to calm down but long-term peace is uncertain. • Ukraine is making progress on economic reform, and the PrivatBank issue is now resolved. • Russia has difficult relations with Ger...

Nord Stream 2 sanctions: Ukraine might benefit from extra delay in pipeline construction
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Dec 2019 · 3 responses

On December 17 the US Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, which presumes sanctions for subcontractors building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Russia is trying to build several bypass routes to European countries around Ukraine. Init...

Ukrainians turn away from Russia media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

A report published on December 15 showed that since 2014 Ukraine has been restricting the activities of the Russian media in Ukraine. Over 70 Russian TV channels have been banned. Since 2017 several Russian social networks have been stopped in Ukraine. Russian newspapers hardly sell any copies in...

The MNB loosened policy slightly further today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

Today's monthly rate-setting Monetary Council did not do a lot really, except for stating that they see inflation risk symmetrical now, instead of downwardly biased as so far, and also apart from raising the maximum exposure in their corporate bond purchasing program from HUF 300bn to HUF 450bn f...

The new government’s priorities are to raise domestic demand and real wages; lowering inflation isn’t an immediate concern
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2019

Since ex-president Mauricio Macri lost his party’s presidential primary in August, inflation has accelerated, recession has deepened, fears of debt default have obscured the financial scenario and the IMF program has been put on hold. GDP has contracted 2.5% in 2019, and real wages have fallen 10...

Chile’s awakening
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

The economic effects of the protests that began on October 18th have been devastating. The social situation in Chile makes any projection highly uncertain. The Imacec in October was as unfavorable as it was surprising. Considering that the demonstrations affected only 12 days of the month, ou...

Russian tech company proactive in asserting rights
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

Rambler, a Russian internet company, is standing up against US rivals. On December 12 police searched the offices of Nginx which is a major web server. Rambler said that Nginx was guilty of stealing intellectual property. Igor Syosev co-founded Nginx but used to work for Rambler. Rambler alleges ...

Two 2020 pivot points
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2019

As 2019 comes to a draw, short-term regime changes look distant. The opposition is in disarray; Maduro has the upper hand. We see three political scenarios for 2020–2021. They pivot on assumptions as to how two key events will play out next year: the appointment of a new National Electoral Co...

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