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Limited new Covid restrictions were announced last night
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

PM Orbán announced new Covid restrictions last night, following a number of recent official indications that tighter rules were about to come. Specifically, a night curfew from midnight to 5 am was introduced immediately, together with the instruction to close bars and nightclubs, and a rule that...

The cancellation of the Ant IPO and the Chinese financial system
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Nov 2020

What does the cancellation of the Ant IPO mean for China’s global financial integration and for China’s economy? In a word, not much on the integration front, due to significant and continuing financial flows. Within China, though, the decision was a sign of policy confusion and an affirmation of...

Kyrgyzstan elects interim president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

On November 4 Talant Mantyov was elected Speaker of Parliament. The Speaker succeeds the president when a vacancy arises. President Japarov took power only two weeks ago. He is prime minister as well as president at the same time! An election is due on 10 January 2021 and Japarov is running. Japa...

Russian recovery stalling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

The Central Bank of Russia issued a report stating that the recovery has stopped. The government's response to the economic crises has ended just as coronavirus has rebounded. In Q2 and Q3 2020 the economy exceeded expectations. The CBR raised its predictions for the year. The economy is due to c...

Russian taxes to rise
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

On November 2 the VTimes published a claim that the government's plans to raise taxes for those who make over USD 63,000 a year to 15% is the start of tax rises for middle and low income people. Taxes rises will follow in 2024. Progressive tax is popular. 79% of people oppose the current flat tax...

Belarus general strike failing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2020

On November 2 over 1000 pensioners marched in Minsk. Many carried the red and white flag which was the national flag of Belarus in the early 90s. On November 1 a march resulted in 231 arrests. Men who are arrested are often beaten with batons on the thighs so their injuries will not be so visible...

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2020

On November 2, Armenia said that 11 of its soldiers were killed in fighting. The ceasefire is more honored in the breach than in the observance. On November 2, Azerbaijan claimed to have taken back 8 more villages in Nagorno Karabakh and accused the Armenians of shelling civilians. President Aliy...

Covid-19 weekly update − week ending November 2, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Nov 2020

We may be seeing the beginning signs of the industrial/FAI-driven stimulus weakening. Cement, rebar and float glass prices are weakening, and blast furnace operating rates are trending lower. This may simply be the end of the peak, and continued lending from the state banks will allow the stimulu...

Inflation edges up a bit in October, but probably more to come
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2020

Consumer prices rose by 2.1%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus (and our forecast as well), taking the 12-month CPI inflation slightly higher to 11.9% from 11.7% in September. Reflecting the adverse impact of lira depreciation, domestic-PPI inflation showed a strong month...

Hungary's COVID strategy seen shifting: further restrictions expected later this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the PM Orbán's long-standing resistance to any further Covid restrictions, there have been a number of official comments heard over the last three days, which hinted at upcoming further significant restrictions in response to the constantly deteriorating domestic Covid situation. Today, c...

​OMAN: Tawazun plan light on details
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Oman has finally released basic details of its Tawazun fiscal balance plan, which aims to reduce the deficit to 1.7% of GDP by 2024. The proposal has confirmed some of the items that we have been anticipating for over a year, including an initiative to introduce a personal income tax, but the pla...

Politics: Three new factors for the 2021 electoral race
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Three developments of the last few weeks could significantly alter next year's electoral outlook. The first involves the leadership of the governing Morena party, not only from now until the 2021 midterms but also during much of the run-up to Mexico’s 2024 presidential contest. In a series of pub...

Centrão: from a solution to the problem and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the holiday on Monday, this will be a busy week in Brasília. In the Senate, leaders will try to make a deal to advance important proposals, including autonomy of the Central Bank. On Wednesday, an analysis of presidential vetoes is scheduled, and the government will try to postpone the se...

Final thoughts on the impact of the US election on the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The outcome of the US elections will have significant implications for the GCC. The possibility of a conflict with Iran would significantly increase in a second Trump term. Under Biden, a new nuclear deal is expected, but wouldn't be easy given the increasing hardline dominance within Iran. A foc...

Economics: Data points to a restrained and uncertain rebound
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The data published over the past month has provided evidence of a considerable rebound in activity compared to the relative lockdown much of the economy experienced during the second quarter, although not enough to dispel expectations of a very negative economic performance for full-year 2020. So...

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