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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​GULF WEEKLY: Reopenings accelerate, and oil cuts might be extended
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 May 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Most states outlined reopening plans for the next few weeks. * Coronavirus active infections fell in Saudi and Qatar, but returned to growth in UAE and are rising quickly ...

Solid Q1 growth, but brace for an ugly ride ahead
TURKEY · Report · 29 May 2020

Turkish economy grew by 4.5%, y/y, and 0.6%, q/q, in the first quarter of this year (Graph 1), which is somewhat weaker than expectations. More importantly, however, these figures reflect the COVID-19 shock only partially, with the lockdowns affecting at most one-sixth of the quarter. The second ...

Central America, Dominican Republic, Panama Region webinar featuring Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Pavel Isa and Marco Fernandez: Challenges amid the pandemic
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 May 2020

Central America, Dominican Republic, Panama Region webinar featuring Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Pavel Isa and Marco Fernandez: Challenges amid the pandemic​ GlobalSource Partners’ Country Analysts discuss the Covid-19 health situation, the macro and fiscal implications of the...

AEB wants fair access to Russian market
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2020

On May 28 the chief executive of the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said he wants his members to have a fair chance to offer goods and services in Russia. This is especially in relation to coronavirus. The head of the AEB is Tadzio Schilling. The 42 year old former Swiss diplomat took o...

Russia spending USD 114 billion to kickstart the economy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2020

On May 25 the Ministry of Economic Development decided that in 2020-21 it shall spend USD 114 billion to stimulate the economy. This was in an internal memo published by Vedomosti newspaper. Most of this will be in spending but there will also be tax deferrals and tax exemptions. Stimulus will be...

Bolsonaro’s reaction increases tension
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2020

The tension between branches of government has been growing in the last hours and is taking on the appearance of a potential institutional crisis. After the repercussions from the Federal Police (PF) operation against allies, militants and parliamentarians linked to the Bolsonarismo, President Ja...

Disapproval of the administration reaches 43%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2020

"Bad/Very bad” evaluations of the Jair Bolsonaro administration increased by five percentage points in nearly 30 days, reaching the highest level of disapproval since August 2019, according to the most recent Datafolha poll released today, May 28. On the other hand, Bolsonaro continues to demonst...

Russian macro: 2020 outlook unchanged amid mixed statistics in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 28 May 2020

​Preliminary statistics for April released by Rosstat indicate that retail sales were sharply lower, both m-o-m and y-o-y, by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3%, respectively. The 4M20 tally fell by 2.8% y-o-y. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures s...

MNB vice governor Márton Nagy has resigned
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2020

The local media has just reported this, referring to a statement from the MNB, which cannot be seen on the Bank's website at the moment. According to the report, Mr. Nagy has resigned with effect today, in view of 'another important managerial position', which he is supposed to take over. The MNB...

Struggling to fight COVID-19
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic arrived in Central America in March, and is posing both health and economic challenges. The infection has spread, and is having various economic and social impacts, on production, employment, the balance of payments, fiscal accounts and the financial system. In Costa Rica...

PF operation hits Bolsonaro allies and keeps the political climate tense
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2020

Today the Federal Police (PF) conducted search and seizure operations within the scope of the “fake news inquiry”. The measures were authorized by Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) Alexandre de Moraes. According to Moraes, the investigations showed that a group produced and dissemina...

Ukraine investigating Biden
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 21 a court in Kyiv authorized the Prosecutor-General to investigate Joe Biden. The allegation is that Biden interfered in the work of a previous Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin. Tapes were released showing Biden's conversation with the at the time President Poroshenko over the situation. ...

2020-2022 Outlook: Hitting bottom or continuing freefall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 May 2020

Our outlook through 2022 begins with a single scenario for 2020, then branches off into two scenarios for 2021–2022 that we consider equally likely: Regime Change or Chavismo Persists. In both scenarios, Maduro is assumed to remain in power at least through the end of 2020. A collapsing oil se...

Washington accuses Russia of sending warplanes to Libya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 26 the Pentagon said that Russia is sending military aircraft to support rebels in Libya. The US recognizes the Government of National Accord (GNA) which holds the UN seat for Libya. The US claims that Russian Air Force units flew to Syria where they were repainted to hide their livery. Th...

Russia banks importing most USD since 2014
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 27 Russian Central Bank data revealed that Russia is importing more USD than any time since sanctions were imposed. Russia brought in USD 5 billion and EUR 1 billion in March 2020.The RUB tumbled 20% in the first half of March. That was 80.8 to the USD which was the RUB's lowest value sinc...

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