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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No agreement seems to have been reached on the rule-of-law mechanism until tonight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

A short while ago, foreign minister Szíjjártó told Reuters in Brussels that Hungary and Poland are holding themselves to their intention to veto the 7-year EU budget and the recovery package attached to it.Also today, an unnamed diplomat at the EU has told Reuters that the two countries have been...

Who is afraid of Gustavo Petro?
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Dec 2020

The national government deficit for 2020, estimated at 8.2% of GDP in June, was by November rising toward 8.9%, and the estimated deficit for 2021 had been massively revised upward, to 7.6%, from 5.1% of GDP in June. Given that the government’s GDP growth forecasts were also revised downward, fro...

Economics: November data points to trouble ahead
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2020 · 1 response

There were a few positive tidbits from last month’s economic news, and in general indicators tended to ease off their historical lows from earlier in the year, but they remain very weak. A sequential increase in the leading indicator for September pushed the index barely back into expansion range...

A month of good news for the PRM government, and of misfortune for the PLD
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 07 Dec 2020

The actions carried out by the Attorney General’s office during the last weekend in November ended the waiting period for the submission to justice of the alleged corrupt officials and close associates of the administration of former president Danilo Medina Sánchez. Ten people were arrested durin...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Dec 2020

* The fiscal deficit reached 11.1% GDP in the LTM; we expect a deficit of 11.8% this year. * Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in November, and consumer confidence has improved modestly as well. * Total disposable income (including government support) of workers ac...

Moldova strips president-elect of security service control
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

On December 4 Parliament passed a law stating that the incoming President Maia Sandu will have no authority over the intelligence services. Instead Parliament will control these services. It is suspected that the security services are sympathetic to Russia. The Socialist Party (which is pro-Russi...

Something has to give
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Dec 2020 · 1 response

A supportive global backdrop, combined with the recent changes in economic management, a rate hike and a somewhat more helpful posturing by President Erdogan vis-à-vis reforms on the domestic front, have created, rightly so, a more constructive investor sentiment toward Turkey. But make no mis...

US law targets Russian doping
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

On December 6 Trump signed a law that empowers US law enforcement to arrest and prosecute those suspected of doping in sport anywhere in the world is US athletes, sponsors or broadcasters are involved in the competition. The Rodchenkov Act was passed on December 4. The World Anti Doping Agency (W...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Credit card purchases increased by 20% in November due to the partial opening up of the second closure. The data is not seasonally adjusted, we estimate this reflects a 10% growth (sa). Expansion of private consumption will s...

Polish government is moving in a zigzag, Hungary holds its position firmly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

Just one day after Polish deputy PM Gowin told the press his government could back away from its fiscal veto if the EU issued some legal assurances on the rule-of-law mechanism, the same government's speaker said that his words were mistranslated or misinterpreted but anyway misunderstood, as he ...

US asks EU to stop Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

On December 4 Washington DC asked EU countries to block the undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. The US fears that Russia will have energy blackmail over Europe. Congress is mulling more sanctions to be passed in January.Work on the pipeline stopped 12 months ago. US sanctions on any ent...

Parliament approves criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations, multiple loopholes have been created
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 4th Verkhovna Rada voted in the law which returns criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations. The relevant provision of the Criminal Code had been previously canceled by the Constitutional court. However, the newly approved version of the law creates multiple loopholes ...

Legal disaster for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

On December 4 the Dutch Supreme Court ruled that shareholders in Yukos can continue their case seeking USD 50 billion in compensation. The court rejected Russia's bid to suspend enforcement of an earlier judgment. There will be another hearing in the Dutch Supreme Court in early 2021. In late Nov...

OPEC+ agrees to increase production
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

On December 3 OPEC+ said that oil output will increase in January 2021 by 500 000 bpd. That is a change to its previously agreed timetable for quota relaxation.Saudi Arabia had wanted a 2 million bpd increase. Russia wanted to only raise production once oil prices reached close to their pre-coron...

Venezuela webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy - Is Biden a game changer for Venezuela?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2020

In our webinar, Ruth Krivoy discusses the implications of a Biden US presidency on Venezuela and the economic, political and market outlook for the country in 2021, as well as recent developments such as the country's resumption of direct oil shipments to China.

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