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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Muddling through a fiscal crisis
UKRAINE · Report · 14 Dec 2020

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

The politicization of the vaccine and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Despite the fact that the Congressional recess begins on December 23, this will be the final week of legislative activity this year. On Monday, the House may vote on the bill that deals with state debt and the new currency exchange law, among other proposals. Parliamentarians will also vote on th...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Macro fundamentals continue to support a shekel appreciation; we expect an increase in the CA surplus in Q320. In September-November, both industrial exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in these sectors. Economic indicators point to softer consumption in December, follo...

Economics: New infrastructure announcement falls short again
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Gross fixed capital formation, which had already been receding since the first days of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government, has been one of the variables hardest hit during this year’s economic and health crises. So the recent announcement of a second raft of mostly private-public ...

Steady fiscal performance in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

The Russian federal budget posted a deficit of R0.815trln in November and R2.512 in 11M20. In November, federal budget spending increased to R2.298 trln (versus R1.969 trln in October) and reached nearly R19.040 trln in 11M20. Note that the amended 2020 federal budget assumes expenditures at 22.5...

The impact of the pandemic on Russia’s demographic – additional information from Rosstat
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

In recent days Russia’s daily infection cases fluctuated around 28K, while the death toll, according to Rospotrebnadzor, kept fluctuating around an upward trend and once exceeded 600. Rospotrebnadzor is an agency, that apart from various other duties is in charge of collecting real-time statistic...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro report:Economic indicators remain generally positive, exports accelerate In Sept-Nov, both exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in both industrial activity and private consumption, especially after the partial opening of the closure. Credit car...

Notes from my meetings on the economy
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2020 · 1 response

I have done a few virtual meetings last week, and joined a sell-side panel, where I shared some thoughts on Turkey’s economic outlook, at a --well, yet again-- extremely tricky juncture. Below, I briefly summarize what I’ve said, including a few issues/questions that popped up in the meetings,...

Russian and British coronavirus vaccines may combine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

On December 11 it was announced that the maker of Sputnik V will join forces with AstraZeneca to try to make a join coronavirus vaccine. The British coronavirus vaccine is made at Oxford. The Gamaleya Research Center developed Sputnik V. The state run laboratory's vaccine has met with widespread ...

3Q20 y-o-y GDP upgraded
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

Rosstat upgraded its estimate of the 3Q20 y-o-y GDP growth, which of course remained negative, but less so (-3.4% versus -3.6% released earlier as a flash estimate). This upgrade was generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s thinking and previous upward revisions Rosstat. As a result, the 9M20 GDP ...

EU to give Ukraine EUR 600 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

On December 9 Brussels announced that it is granting more macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. This is in view of coronavirus and its economic repercussions. The Vice President of the European Commission said more aid will probably be forthcoming. The money needs to be spent on raising living s...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...

Trade boosts current account balance in the third quarter of 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

South Africa’s (SA) current account recorded a surplus of R297.5bn or 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months ending September 2020. In Q2-2020, the figure was a deficit of R123.7bn or -2.9% (revised from -R104.bn or -2.4%) of GDP. This implies that for the first 9 months of 2020...

Evergrande and China’s Property Bubble
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Rising debt at one of China’s largest developers, Evergrande, has led to concerns that China’s property market may be on the verge of collapse. Evergrande has approximately US$120 billion in debt and may have trouble raising financing. The issue, though, is not just the cash position of Evergrand...

Public spending and prices spiked in November
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

After a surprising slowdown in October, inflation returned with a vengeance in November. Consumer prices rose by 62 percent month-on-month, compared with 21 percent in October. The spike was driven by public spending, which tripled in November compared with October. We expect that momentum from ...

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