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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

OMAN: VAT train slowly chugs into the station, but other reforms will have to wait until it has left
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2019

My visit to Oman hasn’t thrown up many surprises; the economy continues to trundle along, and we are still waiting for the government to deliver on its fiscal reforms. VAT should finally happen in 2021, raising around 1.7% of GDP annually. While a number of other fiscal reforms are under con...

A new fiscal deficit ceiling
PANAMA · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

Yesterday, Héctor Alexander, the head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) presented a bill of law at the national assembly in order to amend the deficit limit of 2.0% of GDP established by the Social Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRSF) back in October 2018. The proposed amendment would rais...

Breakthrough on peace for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

On October 1 Ukraine reached an agreement with Russia on the breakaway regions of Donbass and Luhansk. At talks in Minsk the Ukrainian delegation agreed to new elections being held in two rebel held regions and to grant special political status to these regions. The agreement is known as the Stei...

Back to single digits, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

CPI inflation rose by 1%, m/m, in September, lower than the market consensus (and our forecast) of some 1.3%, m/m, as the 12-month CPI inflation declined to 9.3%, from 15% in August. Our forecast slippage mainly stemmed from food and beverage inflation, which came in at a negative 0.6%, versus ou...

South Africa’s National Treasury pleased with the oversubscribed new bonds, but the country’s borrowing costs remain elevated
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Oct 2019

The South African government has been able to raise money through the issuance of bonds since the late-1990s. Last week, the National Treasury announced that government had successfully placed US$5 billion worth of bonds in the international capital market, comprised of 10-year bonds, (maturing i...

The shekel appreciates sharply on Israel's joining the WGBI
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Oct 2019

Last Friday witnessed a sharp shekel appreciation of 1% (against both the dollar and the Euro), which continued after the official exchange rate was announced at 13:30. The dramatic shekel strengthening followed the announcement by Russell FTSE of Israel's joining the World Global Bond Index in A...

Belarus-Russian talks on reunification falter
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

On October 1 Belarusian Foreign Minister Makei said that the terms of reunification with Russia are not acceptable. In 1999 the two countries agreed the long term goal of merging into a single sovereign state. However, there has been very little progress. Russia and Belarus already belong to a un...

Electoral reform proposed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

The chair of Russian Central Election Commission proposed reforms on September 30. Ella Pamfilova said that the head of the electoral commission in each region should be held responsible for any violations that are not addressed. Local elections are often marred by significant fraud and Pamfilova...

​Akar and Erdogan warn on safe zone
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

At the inauguration ceremonies of the Grand Assembly, Defense Minister retired General Hulusi Akar and President Erdogan reiterated in very forceful and clear words that Turkey has run out of patience in delayign tactics in establishing a safe zone in North East Syria.“Time is near to take matter...

​QATAR: A recession may be on us, but doesn’t matter much
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2019

Qatar’s economy contracted by -1.4% y/y in real terms in Q2 2019 as the three largest sectors - hydrocarbons, manufacturing and construction - all declined. There is likely to also be a contraction in Q3, indicating a technical recession. However, none of this should concern investors too much be...

‘Steinmeier formula’ officially accepted: first reaction is furious
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Oct 2019

On October 1, President Zelenskiy at a press-briefing informed that the ‘Steinmeier formula’ for making peace in the east was officially accepted. The formula presumes special status for occupied territories of Eastern Donbas. The special status should be granted through a change of the Constitut...

Excellent fiscal data, yet further BOP deterioration reported for H1 2019
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2019

Both the ESA2010 (accrual terms) general government balance and sectorial financial data for Q2 have been released today. Following indications by partial figures, which were available earlier, that the fiscal balance must have improved quite a lot, this new set of comprehensive data marks a 1.3%...

The usefulness of the rule
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Oct 2019

The 2011 fiscal rule gave the central government’s fiscal policy a much-needed countercyclical orientation, as it focuses on differentiating structural from temporary revenues and spending. A critical anchor for policy discussions, it makes a committee of external advisors (the CCRF) responsible ...

The ANC special National Executive Committee meeting concludes ‒ without decisions on SA’s economic woes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Oct 2019

Over the past weekend, the African National Congress (ANC) held its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, deliberating over Finance Minister’s recently released recovery plan (which has caused divisions in the party), with discussions about the ailing economy at the top of the agenda. Indee...

​Political chaos
PERU · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

This afternoon President Martín Vizcarra announced the dissolution of Congress.The immediate cause behind the president’s decision lies in his interpretation of today´s events in Congress. After the Constitution Committee decided to reject his proposal for early general elections last Friday, the...

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