GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

What is keeping the Real from appreciating? The answer requires looking not only at the nominal exchange rate, but also the real exchange rate. Since the end of 2011, commodities prices have been generally falling, causing losses in the terms of trade, and the current account deficits have been r...

Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability

ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth in line with potential. Other indicators (PC and manufacturing) appear softer, but service exports remain robust. The signal from the BoI is that a rate cut is unlikely as long as growth remains steady and the Fed remains on hold, with FX int...

Exit polls augur a very fragmented new Congress

PERU · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020

Preliminary results to complete (until July 2020) the term of dissolved Congress show the that no party will achieve a plurality. These results could favor President Vizcarra. We do not expect the new Congress to adopt significant reforms, let alone, attempt any amendment to the Constitution.Whil...

Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability, but FX intervention to continue

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020

Highlights: The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth.This index increased by 0.26% m/m in December, similar to months previous.In Q419 this index increased by 3.2%, in line with long-term growth potential.The MPC sees this as a factor supportive of rate stability, and therefore pref...

Der Spiegel claims Fidesz will not be excluded from the EPP in early February

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020

The German newspaper claims to have information that the European People's Party's president, Donald Tusk has made clear in his recent telephone conversations that at present, the majority to support the exclusion of Fidesz from the EPP is missing, and so Fidesz will not be expelled from the part...

Mixed messages on ending the Ukraine Conflict

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said on January 20 that two new disengagement areas would be created. So far there is only one such disengagement area. There is still firing across the ceasefire line. On January 22 two Ukrainian soldiers were shot one of whom died. The Organization...

Consequences of the awakening

CHILE · Report · 24 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The effects of the protest that began on October 18th on the Chilean economy haven’t been as devastating as we’d feared. November’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) was positive, given the context. The seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased 0.9% in monthly terms, after falling...

Opposition to Putin's constitutional amendments among radicals

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's most prominent newspapers, published an open letter by scores of Russia's more radical opposition activists, decrying Putin's attempts to change the constitution. Some deputies in Moscow City Council have stated they are against the proposed amendments...

North Korean workers still in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Moscow acknowledged that North Korean laborers are still in Russia past the UN deadline for these workers being expelled. A UN Security Council Resolution voted for by Russia required all these workers to leave by December 22 2019. Moscow said that these workers were not repatriated...

USD 2.5 bn in global bonds allocated in international capital markets

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

The Government of the Dominican Republic placed bonds in the international capital market today for a total amount equivalent to USD 2.5 bn. USD 1.0 bn were in 10-year bonds and at an interest rate of 4.50%, the lowest achieved by the country for a bond of that term, and USD 1.5 bn million were i...

EURHUF 337.50 - a new historic low for the forint

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

Following an uptick earlier this week, as the MNB rejected all bids at its FX tender on Monday, the forint fell to a new historic low against the euro for a short while in early trade today. We see a good chance that the MNB does not like the forint being this weak at a time when it expects headl...

GDP growth climbs to 6.4% in 4Q19

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

As expected, stronger public spending pushed GDP growth to 6.4% in 4Q19, up from a low of 5.5% in 2Q19 and a downwardly revised 6% growth rate in 3Q19. Both government consumption and public construction grew at double-digit rates, reflecting fierce efforts to catch up on spending held up in 1H19...

Cabinet shakeup in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2020

Russia's new PM Mikhail Mishustin has reshaped the cabinet dramatically on January 21. The key posts (foreign affairs, the interior, defense, energy, emergencies and finance) have all retained the same ministers as before. However, Anton Siluanov (Finance Minister) has had his additional office o...

Russia to screen Chinese visitors for Coronavirus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2020

On January 21 Russia announced that it would be screening Chinese tourists and business executives for coronavirus. The disease broke out in Wuhan, China in January 2020. the screening will be conducted in airports. The Russian Health Regulator stated that it wished to prevent the virus from spre...

Is Congress still committed to structural reforms and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2020

On Monday, January 20, the new pricing table for roadway cargo goes into effect. On Tuesday, President Bolsonaro leads a cabinet team meeting. Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes participates in the World Economic Forum, in Davos, where he will meet with business representatives. This week's ...