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A dismal legislature
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2019

A new political battleground has emerged, due to President Iván Duque’s plan to resume aerial spreading of the herbicide glyphosate over coca plantations. The peace agreement signed with the FARC mandated manual eradication -- quite a controversial issue, as those coca-growing regions typically l...

Public Sector Deficit is expected to be higher than the legal limit by the end of the year (and next)
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2019

Héctor Alexander, new Minister of MEF beginning July 1, stated last week that that the real situation of the public finances may be worse than the figures submitted by the Varela Administration, because of the -so far- unknown amount of accounts payable to contractors and suppliers. His estimatio...

Economics: June news points to further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Buffeted signs of a global slowdown, continuing trade pressures, and not an insignificant number of unforced errors on the part of the government, economic news during June offered further evidence that the Mexican economy continues to lose steam. Aggregate demand grew a scant 0.1% during the f...

Politics: Initial cracks in support for AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Halfway through 2019 and seven months into his presidency, Andrés Manuel López is facing a contradictory situation. He maintains high approval levels on the strength of his immense personal popularity. In the latest quarterly GEA-ISA survey of registered voters based on interviews conducted in mi...

The vote on Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2019 · 1 response

The vote in the Lower House on Samuel Moreira’s (PSDB-SP) Pension Reform report to conclude on Wednesday or Thursday. Rodrigo Maia, speaker of the House, looks for a deal with leaders, governors and mayors to include states and municipalities in the proposal. State secretaries discuss Tax Reform ...

Challenges ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Government-opposition talks continue, a sign that all sides prefer a negotiated solution. The ongoing stalemate is catastrophic, and there are no other alternatives in sight to solve the crisis. Both parties have incentives to negotiate and are being pushed to do so by their respective internatio...

With Widodo’s confirmation, the economic future looks bright
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court finally decided to declare an electoral victory for incumbent President Joko Widodo and his running mate Ma’ruf Amien, in the wake of the contested April 17th presidential election. With that decision, Widodo will be allowed to continue leading the country for a s...

The inflation report and the start of monetary easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2019

​Neither the minutes of the last COPOM meeting nor the latest Inflation Report is explicit about the start of monetary easing. This is understandable, since the Central Bank has an obligation to proceed cautiously, and the two documents call attention to the risk of frustration regarding approval...

Gauteng Premier delivers the state of the province address focusing on growing the economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Gauteng is the smallest province (land area) in South Africa, yet the most urbanised and fastest growing of the nine provinces. The province is considered the economic heartland of South Africa as it is the biggest contributor to the country’s GDP and plays a huge role in attracting investment fo...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Looking beyond the dust and noise provoked by the disputes over deeply rooted and divergent interests, the pension reform proposal is making progress in Congress and might come up for a first floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies in July. The economy remains stagnant, and the first promising news...

Not much changed at the G20 meeting
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Following the meetings in Osaka, markets have heaved sighs of relief, especially in China where the SCI 300 was up 2.9 percent today and where the agreement between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has been presented as a triumph for Xi and a real reso...

Offshore foreign exchange and the yuan
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jul 2019

The value of the Chinese currency depends to a great extent on Beijing’s ability to control capital flows. Over the past decade there have been numerous channels devised to bypass regulations, including false invoicing of manufactured goods, inflated service fees (expensive consultants abroad), t...

COSTA RICA: Q1 data reaffirms a slow start
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Jul 2019

On June 28, the Central Bank published preliminary figures for Q1 GDP, Balance of Payments and External Debt. Results on the production front are neither encouraging, nor surprising: GDP grew only 1.8% y/y, after an increase of just 1.9% y/y in Q4-2018.

Higher bond issuance underlines some fiscal slippage
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Economic growth appears to have slowed in 2Q2019. * The BOI composite index slowed to 0.1% y/y in May. * Employment growth has stalled in April-May. * Unemployment remains low (3.2% ages 25-64) on lower labor participation. * Chain store sales increased by 0.6% saar in March-M...

Life after Osaka
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2019

Amidst a startling controversy about who said what during the Erdogan-Trump meeting, we change our baseline scenario on S-400s. Erdogan shall take delivery and the sanctions will go into effect latest by August, but they will be mild. Read on, this is not the end-game, which is at least 3-6 month...

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