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What we can learn from the Baoshang takeover
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jul 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The sudden takeover of Baoshang Bank on May 24 shocked markets and caused interbank interest rates to soar, probably because it suggested that lenders to Chinese banks might have to start taking responsibility for poor credit decisions. • Baoshang, h...

Analyzing the Budget announcement of July 5, 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2019

The July budget speech, of the NDA-3, is the first of a five-year period. It is expected to establish the priorities and the work program of the coming five years. It takes place at a time when there is significant financial and economic stress. On about July 18, we will release our business cycl...

CBRT Governor has been dismissed
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2019

CBRT Governor Mr. Murat Cetinkaya’s abrupt and rather arbitrary dismissal speaks volumes about President Erdogan’s intentions going forward, which is the topic of the first essay in the Politics section. While we still give him the benefit of doubt, he seems in no rush to announce ground-breaking...

Russian budget execution being reformed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2019

The Ministry of Finance suggested that a proper treasury payment system be introduced. This shall shift all budget transactions from ministries, regions and so on to the treasury. The aim is to move to a system of uniform accounting in the budget system. There are over 50 000 government accounts ...

Russian coal exports in decline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2019

Coal is one of Russia's many mineral resources. Exporting coal matters to the Russian economy though not as much as oil and gas. Coal exports to the EU are down sharply. To make it worse the world price is falling. A mild winter, green taxes and better fuel efficiency have all contributed to this...

Pension Reform: Committee concludes vote on report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2019

The Special Committee on Pension Reform in the Lower House concluded the vote on the report by Rep. Samuel Moreira (PSDB-SP). This is an important victory, not only for the government, but especially for the speaker of the Lower House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). If, on one hand, Maia was unable to in...

The South African Reserve Bank: Institutional credibility, macroeconomic stability and withstanding political games
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jul 2019

Now that the 2019 general elections have come and gone, and having returned Mr. Ramaphosa as the president of the country, his greatest battle lays in resuscitating the South African economy. This he will have to achieve while simultaneously fighting for control within his own political party,...

Retail sales, wages decelerate on tight fiscal policy and higher inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2019

Retail sales growth decelerated in May, to 4.7% yoy in real terms and on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, from 6.1% yoy in April and 5.8% yoy reported for Q1.The local press and various private sector speakers are quoting the markedly lower unadjusted and day-adjusted figures (3% yoy and 2.6% y...

Detente in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2019

The past week has seen a reduction in tensions in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Government and the pro-Russian rebels have agreed to pull back from the front line near Stanytsia Lushanska. This is in the Donbass Region. Ukraine has previously agreed to such pullbacks in other areas but such deals quickl...

June inflation at 2.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2019

The government today announced that the headline inflation rate fell from 3.2% in May to 2.7% in June, lower than what analysts expected (2.9%). Data show that lower rice and oil prices combined to pull down the June inflation rate. Following the rice tariffication law liberalizing rice trade, pr...

Pension Reform: Record of votes in the Special Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jul 2019

With 36 votes in favor of the reform and 13 against it, the Special Committee in the Lower House approved Deputy Samuel Moreira’s Pension Reform proposal. If the Special Committee finishes this week, the first round of voting is expected to take place before the parliamentary recess, which begins...

Distribution of EU positions: the worst has been avoided, but that is all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2019

Looking at the results of the recent days' horse-trading around leading EU positions, one might easily have the impression that, from the Hungarian government's perspective , the worst of the potential outcomes has been avoided but the whole process was no great success at all.Of course, the star...

Russia persuades OPEC to cut production
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2019

On July 1 OPEC + decided to prolong its production cut. The reduced production agreement will now last 9 months into 2020.At the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan the Russian Government declared its intention to reduce oil production.Since December 2016 Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed production cu...

Ruling PLD at the breaking point
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Jul 2019

The ruling PLD’s political crisis is so severe that the party is on the brink of a split, a situation affecting the whole country. The conflict stems former President Leonel Fernández’s pursuit of the presidential nomination, while President Danilo Medina wants, at any cost, to prevent him from w...

Inflation drops sharply, mostly on food
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2019 · 2 responses

Consumer prices were almost unchanged in June, m/m (0.03%), which was a slightly better print than the consensus -- of 0.1%-0.2% increase. The 12-month CPI-inflation thus fell quite sharply to 15.7% from 18.7% in May. Likewise, the 12-month D-PPI inflation dropped to 25% from 28.7%, with the spre...

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