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Another game of chicken
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2019

Facing dwindling approval ratings, the Vizcarra government resorted to its usual ploy: it confronted the unpopular Congress, though now with a credible excuse: Congress had been dragging its feet over approving the government’s proposed political reform. The Executive branch sent Congress 12 draf...

Monetary policy done by the Treasury once again
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2019

Detailed GDP data for Q1 revealed that the unchanged strength of growth, amidst the relative weakness of the European economy, came to a great extent from an extraordinarily robust performance by the construction sector. Here, the coincidence of massive infrastructural, industrial, office and res...

No-go to mandatory reduction in banking fees... for now
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2019

Barely two days before Congress goes to a 1-month-recess, a bill aimed at reducing banking fees, which had already been approved in the House of Representatives, had a crucial vote on June 18 in the economics committee of the Senate (Comisión Tercera). This bill was a major concern for banks, whi...

Successful Outcome for Liability Management
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 Jun 2019

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that the liability management operation that took place last week through which Ecuador issued $1125 million in bonds maturing in 2029 with a coupon of 10.75% and a yield of 9.059%, received a positive response from bondholders of sovereign bonds maturing in 2020...

Economics: The government is in denial over debt ratings cuts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2019

There was considerable discussion in the past two weeks about how severely a series of tariffs that the US president was threatening to levy might affect the region’s economy, especially that of Mexico. But while most attention was focused on the threats emanating from the White House, and on spe...

Constant crises and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2019

Despite reduced legislative activity due to this Thursday’s holiday, the political environment will be heated due to the recent turmoil following Economy Minister Paulo Guedes’ criticism of the Pension Reform Special Committee Report. Minister of Justice and Public Security Sérgio Moro will appea...

Politics: The dead-end road of appeasement
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2019

Mexico supposedly dodged a bullet by reaching a deal with the United States to avoid the imposition of punitive tariffs on Mexican goods, but in exchange the administration of President López Obrador made concessions that will prove costly both economically and politically. They have achieved the...

Essential CIS Politics: June 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2019

* Russian telecommunications firm agrees deal with Huawei amid warm Russo-Chinese relations. * President Tokayev wins Kazakh election amid major protests. * Ukrainian elections look set to deliver victory to President Zelensky’s party, Servant of the People.

Pension Reform: A good version approved by the Special Committee and the challenges ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2019

​Last week the rapporteur of the Pension Reform Proposal presented his opinion to the Special Committee. The version urged in his opinion was somewhat watered down in relation to the government’s original proposal, but it would still lead to significant savings over the next 10 years, of over R$ ...

Despite high inflation in May, rates to remain on hold
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jun 2019

Highlights: Inflation in May reached 0.7% m/m (1.5% y/y). - The market was expecting 0.4%-0.6% (Leader: 0.6%). - The CPI was impacted by a strong seasonal jump in fresh produce and clothing prices. - Core inflation ticked higher, to 1.0% y/y from 0.8% last month. Trade dat...

Disinflate at any cost!
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2019

We revised down our inflation estimate for May to 36 percent (from 49 percent), very close to April (35 percent). In our view, weak consumption largely offset the effect of faster depreciation of the bolivar (51 percent in May vs. 21 percent in April). Cumulative inflation for January-May 2019 is...

Update on the financial stress
INDIA · Report · 17 Jun 2019 · 1 response

We compute distance to default for large private firms using data as of June 10, 2019. With financial firms, there is a focus on eight firms which add up to a balance sheet size of about Rs.10 trillion. Three firms (Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Federal Bank) have seen no deterioration in the dist...

An unstable equilibrium
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Our political thesis, which also has a strong bearing on the economy, can be summed up in one sentence: “It’s such a mess that things will probably get better”. In terms of Turkey’s purchase of S-400s, the die appears cast, yet, underneath the surface, there is heavy shuttle diplomacy and hectic ...

Russia in Venezuela: players aligning for a long-term crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2019

As the crisis in Venezuela continues, Russia continues to engage in different strategies to support the chavists while trying to reduce its exposure to further sanctions. China has adopted a ‘keep a low profile’ (KLP) strategy, and thus, Cuba and Iran start to align to support Caracas. However, g...

Not a minute to lose
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2019

The IMF mission assessing Ecuador’s compliance with the goals for Q1 set up under the agreement visited the country in the past few weeks. The official report has not been published yet, but apparently there is no reason to believe that the Republic will not receive the attached disbursements bec...

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