GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Our new quarterly forecast once again includes a moderate upward revision of GDP growth rates for 2019-2021. Higher growth figures appear well justified on account of the unabated vigor of manufacturing, construction/fixed investment and real wage/consumption growth, despite all sorts of weakness...

Zelenskiy leaves Premier Honcharuk in place

UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

President Zelenskiy decided to leave Oleksiy Honcharuk in the Prime-Minister's chair for now according to the President Office. Honcharuk submitted a resignation request today following the scandal with the records of his talks. Journalists juggled a variety of versions of who might have recorded...

China’s local debt clean-up squad

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The four original Asset Management Companies (AMCs) established to handle bank non-performing loans have been expanded with the addition of more than 60 local AMCs. They are integral to the disposal of bank NPLs, which are increasing in size. The shift from central to local AMCs means Beijing is ...

Ruble bonds: The upside is limited

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The Russian market rallied at the beginning of the year. As a result, OFZ yields in the long end of the curve dropped almost to the level of the CBR key rate. Coupled with the strengthening of the ruble observed in December–January, it makes ruble sovereigns less attractive for international inve...

Taal Volcano eruption

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Five days after the eruption of Taal Volcano, situated in one of the most popular domestic tourist destinations some 60km south of Metro Manila, Philippine authorities continue to remain on high alert for the possibility of a hazardous explosive eruption (i.e., Alert Level 4, 5 being the highest)...

The South African Reserve Bank gives the economy a boost with a 25 bp cut in interest rates

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2020

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%, and therefore the prime lending rate from 10% to 9.75%, during its first sitting of the year. Prior to this, the last time the MPC had made an ad...

MPC does the expected, very likely not done yet

TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Broadly in line with our expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) once again today and kept the reduction relatively measured, at a 75 bps clip. The policy rate is now down to 11.25% (simple), which brings the cumulative drop since last July to 1275 bps (s...

Will the Cabinet resign?

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Talks about potential resignation of the Honcharuk Cabinet have been circulating already for several months. Allegedly President Office anticipated some toxic deliveries to be completed, like land reform, to replace the Cabinet. Problems with budget revenues as well as falling industry only heat ...

Politics: 2020 challenges and political agenda

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2020 · 1 response

After a year in office, President Andrés López Obrador’s main achievement appears to be his successful bid to sell his political project to a population anxious for much-promised change. While concrete results as such have been meager, AMLO’s popularity remains high, with approval levels between ...

Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political context

ECUADOR · Forecast · 13 Jan 2020

The slowdown in the economy continued in Q3 2019 with scant growth of 0.1% q/q and a decrease of 0.1% y/y. With these results, 2019 GDP growth might confirm the negative 0.5% we expect, leaving an unsettling economic environment during an electoral year, when the government will have to continue ...

OMAN: Sultan Haitham should be well prepared to address fiscal challenges

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2020

Oman's bizarre and untested succession system, set up by Qaboos to reduce the risk of rivals (after he’d deposed his father), was supposed to involve three days of deliberation by the Royal Family Council, during the period of official mourning, and only if they could not agree would two letters ...

Gulf weekly: Iran counterstrike, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP data

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Iran’s limited counterstrike on US forces in Iraq seemed to be a signal of de-escalation. * Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops. * MBS’s ...

China’s half-hearted stimulus

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2020

China is entering 2020 with a weak response to the economic decline. Beijing is accepting slower growth as one of the casualties of avoiding excessive investment that would lead to inefficient growth and the potential for financial systemic risk. However, in place of a substantial monetary or fi...

Happy new year?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

First, the good news. Government has a new P4.1 trillion budget which President Duterte signed into law early this week. This would normally be par for the course but, following last year’s delayed budget that became a major drag on economic growth, is clearly a positive development. Public spend...

Ukrainian passenger plane crashes in Iran

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

On January 8 a Ukrainian International Airlines plane crashed in Iran. All 176 people aboard were killed. The cause of the disaster has not yet been determined. Already some people on the internet are making accusations of foul play. The crash comes at a moment of high tension between Iran and th...