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Life after Osaka
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2019

Amidst a startling controversy about who said what during the Erdogan-Trump meeting, we change our baseline scenario on S-400s. Erdogan shall take delivery and the sanctions will go into effect latest by August, but they will be mild. Read on, this is not the end-game, which is at least 3-6 month...

A new corruption scandal shakes the country and hits Medina’s government hard
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Jun 2019

A new scandal has shaken the country. As a result of an investigation that lasted months on behalf of a network of journalists, international media revealed that Odebrecht paid bribes for almost USD 40 million to be favored with the award of the contract for almost USD 2 bn for the construction o...

Panama is back in the gray list of GAFI: an expected result with unpredictable consequences
PANAMA · Report · 27 Jun 2019

During the FATF (Financial Action Task Force, GAFI in Spanish) plenary meeting last week in Orlando, Florida , the Republic of Panama was added again to the gray list of non-cooperating countries in matters related to money laundering and financial transparency, despite the efforts made by the Ad...

COSTA RICA: Weathering hard times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jun 2019

Costa Rica faces hard times, with consequences primarily for production and employment. After the first year of the new Carlos Alvarado Quesada administration, economic activity continues to be sluggish, and therefore cannot reduce unemployment. Expectations continue to play a key role, as they s...

Russian growth at a snail's pace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2019

In May 2019 growth was only 0.2% Y o Y. This is eight and a half times lower than April's annual growth. A new head of Rosstat (the Russian Statistical Agency) was appointed a few months ago to provide more accurate statistics. Unfortunately these statistics are too accurate and are acutely embar...

​Rumors and policy signals
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2019 · 2 responses

Thanks to AKP’s habit of conducting its internal debates behind closed doors and not releasing any useful information to the public, the scuttlebutt is abuzz with rumors, only very few of which I can verify or share with you with some level of confidence. First, Mr. Erdogan has grasped that the e...

The difficulties of signalling, old and new
INDIA · Report · 25 Jun 2019

The NBFC (non-banking financial company) industry is in the midst of a stress test. Some firms such as HDFC are widely trusted by lenders, while others are not. The key puzzle for each healthy firm is about signalling to lenders that it is of high quality. Lenders have relied on three key sign...

Dewan Housing default
INDIA · In Brief · 25 Jun 2019

An important stressed firm in India today is Dewan Housing (DHFL). They are a balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. They seem to have stock market returns correlations with a few other important firms (Yes Bank, Indiabulls Housing), and the cluster adds up to about a Rs.5 trillion balance sheet.U...

Always tricky: central bank policy is tighter than it looks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2019

Comparing today's policy statements with actual MNB activity, one might come to the conclusion that the central bank is secretly tightening its policy, in spite of its contrary talk.On the one hand, today's Monetary Council meeting, the key quarterly rate-setting event as declared by the Bank rec...

Cabinet reshuffle unlikely to improve economic prospects
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2019

When President Sebastián Piñera took office in March 2018, consensus expectations for 2019 GDP growth stood at 3.7%, up from 3% a year before. But expectations have been sinking since September 2018. Central Bank forecasts have registered similar falling optimism. Is this the end of the Piñera ef...

​Istanbul elections: Wait until Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2019 · 1 response

I had promised an update by Tuesday, which I shall defer to Wednesday.There are two reasons. First, Erdogan will meet the party caucus and administrative bodies today to assess election results. Secondly, there are a lot rumors I need to check for verification of accuracy. I hope there will be en...

Proposed changes to Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2019 · 1 response

In the Lower House, we highlight the attempt to vote on the Pension Reform in the Special Committee. Before the vote, the rapporteur, Samuel Moreira (PSDB-SP), is expected to present changes to his report. The 2nd Group of the STF analyzes Lula’s habeas corpus request. Demonstrations in defense o...

Economics: Reallocations reflect shifting priorities
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2019

By analyzing the budget cuts and reallocations, as well as what the administration is actually spending or failing to expend, we can get a clear indication of the course of public policy changes that might otherwise go undetected. In real percentage terms, the 2019 federal spending budget refl...

Politics: AMLO, the courts and the CSOs square off
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2019

As the economy continues to sputter, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government is running into more and more counterweights and political pushback, with each instance posing new legal obstacles for the government’s signature initiatives. Some of the problems must be regarded as self-inf...

South African politics: How the ANC and the South African government are intertwined
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jun 2019

​South Africa’s African National Party (ANC) came into power during the country’s dawn of democracy in 1994. The ANC was a liberation movement. 1994 had marked the end of apartheid, with all eligible citizens of South Africa being able to vote for the first time, irrespective of race or gender. T...

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