A complex municipal election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to announce the new Minister of Education. He is also expected to sanction Provisional Measure 936, which allows for salary and working hour cuts during the pandemic. The House may vote on Provisional Measure 925, which includes aid to the aviation sector. Flá...

Politics: Presidential approval slips
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2020

President López Obrador has realized a goal he seems to have set for himself from the outset that has become a growing presence in his daily morning press conferences: a discourse consciously designed to pit society between those who back him against all those who do not and might stand in his wa...

Russian political and pandemic update: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Recent reports suggest that Russia’s daily numbers of those newly contaminated with COVID-19 continued to fall slowly but steadily in June and in early July. The recovery ratio in Russia remains high, and the total number of people who have recovered has exceeded the current number of “active cas...

Economics: Trade plunges as USMCA takes effect
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Last week marked a significant development in Mexico’s economic relations with the rest of the world, as the revised North American free trade agreement in the form of the reconfigured United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was formally launched, with all the challenges and risks it entai...

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jul 2020

We expect a rate hold decision today but with a more dovish forward guidance, including low rates for a considerable period of time and bond purchases into 2021. Recent indicators point to some growth in activity but at a slow pace, with the recent spike in infections expected to slow recovery. T...

Further moderately negative data on retail sales, foreign trade and the PMI
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2020

More accurately, the new data is very negative at face value; it is moderately negative only in the sense that it does not seem to provide evidence for any further deterioration of the current performance and of the macro outlook, as compared to our current, as we believe, reasonably pessimistic ...

A more expansionary monetary policy likely today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jul 2020

The Bank of Israel is likely to announce a more expansionary monetary policy today, in light of the rather weak recovery and headwinds from the spike in infections (increasing limitations on certain sectors), as well as the deeply negative core inflation in May (-0.5% y/y). This more expansionary...

Abinader wins the presidential election with 54% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

Today, the opposition defeated the PLD by a wide margin in national elections and there will be no need for a second electoral round. Partial but irreversible results indicate that Luis Abinader (PRM and allies), obtained about 54% of the votes, while Castillo (PLD and allies) managed only 35%. F...

All noise, little signal
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2020

While political noise is deafeningly high, we find few harbingers of anything significant happening soon. We stay on top of developments in Turko-American and Russian relations, as well as the conflicts in Syria and Libya, yet detect little sign of imminent trouble or relief. At home, people s...

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

The highlights of our Weekly Macro Wrap Up 6.7.20Recent data points to a slow recovery as PC growth remains weak:Credit card purchases increased in the last week of June but remains 8% below the level at the beginning of the year.Chain store sales in May are down 16% y/y, while food sales are up....

Russian business dissatisfied with state support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2020

On July 1 Russia's main business newspaper Kommersant revealed that some of Russia's largest firms have lamented inadequate financial support from the government in the wake of coronavirus. Claiming financial aid is unduly onerous due to excessive form filling. The government listed 1 300 compani...

The Head of the Central bank dismissed: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Yesterday Verkhovna Rada approved resignation of Yakiv Smoliy, the Head of the NBU. 286 MPs – almost constitutional majority – supported the decision. Media wrote the dismissal of Smoliy was a personal whim of Zelenskiy. Allegedly Zelenskiy summoned Smoliy to the President Office and there was a ...

The dispute for the Ministry of Education
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2020

​The media reported today that President Jair Bolsonaro had defined Paraná´s Secretary of Education, Renato Feder, as the new Minister of Education. Feder was already wanted for the job after Abraham Weintraub left. However, Bolsonaro ended up opting for Professor Carlos Decotelli, who resigne...

CNE: Securing jobs for the regime’s new “best friends”
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On 1 July, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the rules for the 6 December 2020 parliamentary elections. The new system guarantees PSUV a strong majority in the National Assembly (AN) and opens an institutional space for the small parties grouped as the Negotiating Table (MDN) geared ...

India buys Russian warplanes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On July 2 India announced it is buying 33 Russian-made fighters and is paying for upgrades to 59 Russian-made jets that it already owns. This contract is worth over USD 2.4 billion. The planes are MiGs 29s. 12 Su 30 MKI Russian designed planes will be built in India by agreement with Russia. Indi...