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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Russian industry’s dichotomy: manufacturing flat, mining down y-o-y in 9m20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

Rosstat reported that the industrial production was down in 3Q20 by 5.0% y-o-y, while in 9m20 it was down by 2.9%. Y-o-y contraction was deeper in 2Q20 (-6.5% y-o-y). It was mostly mining which held the industrial growth in the negative area, as OPEC+ deal had a strong impact on oil volumes. In 3...

Why is FDI rising?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

Early this week, the BSP released data showing net foreign direct investments (FDI) rising for the third straight month in July, by 35% yoy to $797 million. Following the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th Edition (BPM6), FDIs represent equity and debt flo...

The First Deputy Head of the NBU Rozhkova might be dismissed tomorrow
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Oct 2020

Social nets and local media actively discuss potential dismissal of the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova and the Deputy Head Dmytro Sologub. Some bloggers report the NBU Council plans to dismiss both top officials tomorrow, the others say only Rozhkova is on the list. Kateryna Rozhk...

September’s CPI comes in as expected, supportive of monetary accomodation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Oct 2020

Inflation in September declined by 0.1% m/m and declined by -0.7% y/y (following -0.8% in August), coming in according to expectations (market and ours), although several local forecasters expected zero m/m.Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) inched slightly higher to -0.4...

Outright dictatorship
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2020

On October 8, the National Constituent Assembly rubber-stamped Nicolás Maduro’s “Anti-Blockade Law” (Ley Contra el Bloqueo, LCB), which authorizes Maduro to suspend the legal system, decide on any matter, and use public assets as he sees fit and in total secrecy. Its objective is to generate fina...

Russia licenses second vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2020

On October 14 the announcement was made by the president. The fact that Putin said it indicates the importance attached thereto. The peptide-based shot was created by Vektor (State Virology and Biotechnology Center). The EpiVacCorona has been administered to some cabinet ministers. Over 100 volun...

Ukrainian local elections to include consultative referenda
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2020

On October 13 the president said that the local elections on October 25 will include referenda on 5 issues. The referenda results shall be non-binding. Zelensky promised to hold such polls as part of his manifesto when he was elected.The referenda will likely boost turnout particularly among youn...

Russian macro: Combined 2020-21 budget plan reasonable, external balance stable – expect unhurried growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both oil and gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September, with VAT and excise taxes accounting for the bulk of non-oil and gas revenues, pointing to a continued gradual rebound of the economy. In 9M20, the go...

US and Russia close to agreement on START
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Oct 2020

On October 14 the US said it had almost concluded an agreement with Russia on the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) Treaty on nuclear weapons. The current START runs out in February 2021. The US is content to extend the current START. They want Russia to stop modernizing and expanding its ar...

The Path of the Fiscal Dominance and Another Downgrade
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2020

In April 2008, S&P promoted Brazil to investment grade. Since 2000, the country had been maintaining primary surpluses that were big enough to reduce the debt/GDP ratio. In 2015, after the government had totally abandoned this commitment, and sent a budget bill to Congress with a primary deficit,...

OFZ: Borrowing Plan 2021 looks realistic, but implies extra risks for Minfin
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2020

The Russian government has set a new annual record for domestic borrowing: it raised more than R3 trln on the open market year to date (the FY19 figure was slightly above R2 trln). Domestic local banks brought the lion’s share of demand, in contrast to the previous year, when international player...

Federal budget deficit moderate in September as expenditure growth didn’t impress yet
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both the oil-and-gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September as total revenues exceeded R1.5 trln (versus around R1.3 trln in July and August each month). In 9m20, total revenues reached R13.2 trln, including ov...

Russia’s foreign debt decreased as the ruble weakened
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s total foreign debt decreased from January 1 to October 1by over $30bn to around $461.2. Sovereign debt shrank by over $10bn to around $59.4bn – largely on the back of the weakened ruble, which affected the value of the ruble-denominated bonds h...

Municipal elections stall Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2020

Due to the October 12 holiday and the municipal elections, this will be an empty week in Brasília, without any relevant votes in the House or Senate. Supreme Court Minister Celso de Mello retires on Tuesday, October 13. On Thursday, the Central Bank will release the IBC-Br (GDP preview) for Augus...

Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 11
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Oct 2020

October 1 through 8 was China’s Golden Week, when families gather to celebrate the holidays and presumably spend money. Despite the holiday period, though, consumer spending was relatively flat. Bloomberg did point out some positive trends, including higher major retail and catering enterprise sa...

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