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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian-Venezuelan bank under sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2019

On March 11 the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Evrofinance Mosnarbank for its “assistance” to PDVSA and to the Maduro regime. However, the only example cited in the press release refers to the oil-backed cryptocurrency Petro. According to the ...

Election fever, with Zelenskiy ahead; Hryvnia strong
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Mar 2019 · 1 response

Election madness reigns in Ukraine, with nearly every day bringing a new shocking headline. The Constitutional Court has dropped the “illicit enrichment” provision; a defense procurements scandal has blown up; a decree raising natural gas rates has been rescinded -- and more. Against this wild...

The government is proposing to make household bonds free of the income tax
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Mar 2019

The finance minister yesterday handed in a proposal to the National Assembly, according to which the interest earned from household bonds, the special kind of government debt that is only available to domestic individuals, would be free of the flat 15% income tax, as regards any new series of suc...

Coming soon: monetary easing
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Mar 2019

In a one-on-one interview with the country’s best-known business journalist on television, the new BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno noted that falling local inflation plus the more dovish stance of developed economies’ central banks provide room for monetary easing, especially following last year’s 1...

Vizcarra's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2019

A new cabinet was sworn in today after Premier Villanueva’s resignation.The new Premier is Salvador del Solar, who was Minister of Culture during Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s tenure. Mr del Solar is an actor and film director, and is also a lawyer who studied international relations in the US. Seven n...

Pemex accelerates its fall in 4Q2018
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2019

Pemex’s fourth quarter results surpassed the worst fears as to how quickly the company is being driven operationally and financially into the ground, pulling public finance along with it. Following decades in which the government treated the oil company as a cash cow with which to plug budget hol...

Pension Reform negotiation tools and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The CCJ should be installed in the Lower House, the first step for Pension Reform. Lower House President Rodrigo Maia meets with party leaders to define a voting agenda for the semester. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes speaks to the Senate about the Pension Reform proposal. President Bolsonaro meet...

When, and under what conditions, can the SELIC rate be reduced?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2019

In face of the an extremely slow cyclical recovery and inflation below the target, soon enough we will hear clamors for a new monetary easing cycle. Curiously, there is clear evidence that the current SELIC rate is already providing a good dose of monetary stimulus. As we showed in our report of ...

Politics: AMLO squares off against CSOs
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2019

President López Obrador’s decision to promote a 2019 budget that halved the funds earmarked for the government’s Childcare Facility Program, which benefits well over 300,000 children from low income households, sparked considerable concern. But the apprehension grew when he decided this year to a...

In recession, of a balance sheet kind
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The Turkish GDP contracted by 2.4%, q/q, in Q4, after a 1.6% contraction in Q3 (revised down from 1.1% previously), broadly in line with expectations, which also means that by the widely-accepted popular and technical definition of recession (of two consecutive quarters of sequential decline), th...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The conventional GDP data shows a recovery in late 2017. However, the Indian GDP data became less reliable with the methodology change in 2015, which applies to the series from 2012 onwards. We assess business cycle conditions through three pathways. We have constructed a “coincident indicator...

Slow recovery and the impulse from the Pension Reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Mar 2019 · 1 response

In the projections formulated here we assume that a pension reform near the original version proposed by Minister Guedes will be approved, creating the necessary conditions, in the second half of the year, for the Central Bank to administer an additional monetary stimulus dose, cutting the SELIC ...

Steady CA surplus (2.9% of GDP in 2018) and strong FDI are shekel positive
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The CA surplus reached 11bn USD (2.9% of GDP) in 2018 and net FDI an additional 4.2%: macro fundamentals remain shekel positive. Israeli saving institutions reversed their demand for FX demand and sold 1.7bn USD in January 2019. The fiscal deficit surprised on the upside in February, reaching 3.5...

Venezuela – the Russia connection
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2019

After the dismantling of the Soviet Union, Moscow largely neglected Latin America. Two events were key to changing the situation, namely, the international response to Russia’s occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008; and to the Russian annexation of Crimea and support for Donbass rebels...

Disinflation and depression
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Mar 2019 · 1 response

At the time this report was ready for distribution on Thursday, March 7, a blackout paralyzed Venezuela and is still ongoing. We don’t know yet the extent of the damage, when the supply of electricity will stabilize, and what the new normal will be. It’s too early to assess the damage. The bla...

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