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Country Insights

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On the Brink of Civil Confrontation
UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Dec 2013
The events of last weekend shocked everyone.  On the morning of November 30 riot police attacked protesters at Maidan Square and brutally beaten the people, who were guarding the camp.  Shocking videos and photos flooded media and social nets.  It appeared that for this action the authorities bro...

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A Long, Cold Winter?
TURKEY - Report 01 Dec 2013
According to recent polls, AKP is firmly ahead in the March local election races. We bet it will keep Istanbul and Ankara, as well as most of the large cities. Yet, for PM Erdogan’s presidential campaign, the party needs to surpass 50%, which is likely to be missed.The unexpected declaration of w...

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Are We at Customs Union?
UKRAINE - In Brief 29 Nov 2013
Unfortunately, results of Vilnius Summit did not surprise with positive results.  As we discussed, Victor Yanukovitch decided not to decide at this time.  The general opinion is that Moscow stands behind of such decision.  We do not want to refute this statement – pressure from Moscow and possibi...

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Honduras: Rough Road Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Honduran President-elect Juan Orlando Hernández will have to navigate a rough road, after a polarizing campaign that divided the country. Hernández will face major challenges, including political fragmentation, a likely divided Congress, security risks, muted economic growth and...

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Credit: Effects of the Bank Strike and Some Moderation by Public Banks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Nov 2013
The total stock of credit as a percentage of GDP remained virtually unchanged in October, at 55.4%, versus 55.5% in September. The growth of credit in real terms continued to decelerate, reaching 8.3% in the 12 months through October (Graph 1). In September and October, this deceleration may have...

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Trimming Growth Forecasts
PHILIPPINES - Report 28 Nov 2013
GDP growth reached 7% in 3Q13, its fifth straight quarter in the seven-and-above level.While clearly decelerating as expected from the 1H13 growth pace, it remains one of the highest in the region, surpassing growth in other Southeast Asian economies. Looking at demand-side components, the patter...

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New Glimmers of Accountability
MEXICO - Report 27 Nov 2013
Executive Summary When the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reclaimed the presidential mansion of Los Pinos after a 12-year absence following last year’s election of President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were widespread concerns we might witness a return to the opacity, corruption and lack o...

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Quarterly Report, October 2013
INDIA - Forecast 27 Nov 2013
Output Growth Slips Further Figure: GDP growth Source: National Accounts Statistics and authors’ calculations GDP growth in India slowed to 4.4% in April-June 2013. The slowdown is more pronounced if we exclude agriculture and government expenditure. GDP excluding agriculture and government captu...

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2014 Budget: More of the Same
MEXICO - Report 27 Nov 2013
Executive Summary The Chamber of Deputies approved a final expenditure law for 2014 that contained few surprises or major changes from the original draft of the spending bill proposed by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto. The scant changes that were introduced were largely design...

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Fumbling the Euro-Bluff
UKRAINE - Report 26 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Just a few days after the anniversary of the Orange Revolution, on November 24th thousands of Ukrainians took the streets to protest the delay of the EU Association agreement.After long preparation for the Vilnius Summit, and widely-promoted Euro-integration prospects, the Cabin...

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Manufacturing Woes Drag Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 26 Nov 2013
Official figures released today by Statistics South Africa reveal that, after having increased by 3.2% (revised from 3.0%) during the second quarter of 2013 (Q2 2013), the inflation adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a paltry pace of 0.7% in Q3 2013 (see Graph 1). The figures are o...

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Manufacturing Woes Drag Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 26 Nov 2013
The uninspiring 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter Q3 2013 GDP growth outcome comes on the back of a mediocre performance within the manufacturing sector. Since the beginning of 2013, the quarterly performance of the manufacturing sector has moved from pillar to post. On the whole, South African man...

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Correa Bullish on the Economy
ECUADOR - Forecast 26 Nov 2013
Executive Summary President Rafael Correa sounded very optimistic when he announced sharply higher projections for economic performance, not only for 2013, but for the next three years as well.The government expects GDP to grow 4.1% this year, then 4.5% in 2014, 4.7% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016. Aut...

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Political Insights: Week of November 25
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Nov 2013
A very busy week in Brasília:The Federal Supreme Court rules on a case with potential impact for banks in the billions. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on interest rates.In the House, leaders try to build an agreement to vote on the Internet Framework Law.Petrobras may ann...

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The Signals from the Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Nov 2013
Since the middle of 2012, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been holding steady near historic minimum levels. However, this is not the result of hiring from a growing labor force flow, which if true would indicate progressive tightening of the job market. In reality what has been happ...